Naveen Patnaik has been a four-time successful Chief Minister, who is all set to win his fifth term in the forthcoming polls unless high turbulence occurs in the political environment. It will be a sheer reductionism to describe the unprecedented success of the BJD supremo as the fruit of Biju legacy or a luck phenomenon or a phenomenon of ‘Chanakya-Chandragupta.’
Naveen’s repeated electoral victory is an evidence of his knowledge on State politics, his political IQ and management skill. Misunderstanding his silence as ignorance has taken heavy toll of his opponents.
When Patnaik came to Odisha, he had with him his academic knowledge of history, contacts and exposure. As a student of history he must have understood the socio-political dynamics of Odisha feudal society and his exposure must have taught him about the power system-dynamics. As he continued his political journey in Odisha, Patnaik faced challenges in each phase of his journey and has grown from a naïve politician to a regional satrap.
In the early days of his being president of the BJD, he fought and escaped from the puppet-trap that the senior BJD leaders had set for him. As he entered the Chief Minister’s office in 2000, he faced the in-party power-pull as well as the external pressure of running a coalition Government and handling an opposition team in the Assembly which was led by a three -term Chief Minister, JB Patnaik. He successfully passed this phase.
When he entered the more peaceful phase of running the State Government alone with his own BJD strength in 2009, he faced high political revolt from his advisors. He set the house in order in 2012 and faced the 2014 poll and won with comfortable majority.
The post -2014 days in power brought him adversities. He witnessed the court-directed CBI action against some party members in the chit fund scam that tarnished the image of the party. He also witnessed intra-party conflicts, dissidence and anti-party activities. Externally he faced the challenge of the growing BJP which took some of the BJD’s seats in the 2017 panchayat polls. But Patnaik recovered, set his house in order and won the Bijepur by-election which repositioned the BJD juggernaut. By the end of 2017, a few senior leaders were crossing their limit and challenging the authority of Patnaik, by openly criticizing the party decisions, the functioning of the Government and the policies and systems of the party.
Naveen slowly distanced two senior leaders from the BJD since 2017, for their anti-party activities. Even though the Bijepur by-election was scheduled for February 2018, the BJD supremo did not wait for the by-election but dropped instantly Damodar Rout from the Ministry and the party’s vice president post in December 2017 for his remarks against the Brahmin community. Senior leader Rout had escaped earlier from party action when he had passed adverse comments against the
Anganwadi workers in September 2017.
Patnaik subsequently suspended senior leader, MP, Baijayant Panda from the BJD on January 24 due to anti-party activities. The party raised accusation that his OTV was supporting anti-BJD forces in Bijepur by-election. The suspension of these two heavy weights had no effect on the BJD in the Bijepur by-election. Panda got more and more distanced from the BJD and finally resigned from party on May 28 and resigned from LokSabha on June 12. Later, Panda carried outstreet meetings called tea- parties at different places. He has not joined the BJP though engaged in anti-BJD propaganda.
Rout was finally dropped from the BJD on September 12 after vehemently criticising the Government in the Assembly and outside. Just after his dropping, Panda visited Rout’s house and Rout declared about the formation of a new regional party. People believed it because the BJP has been promoting such a model in other States to split the regional parties for its poll advantage. Rout mentioned that the old Biju followers shall be united. He took the names of Bijaya Mohapatra, Prafulla Ghadai, Surendranath Nayak, Panchanan Kanungo, etc. Ghadai and Nayak immediately countered the statement of Rout and expressed their ignorance about such plans. Mohapatra did not second Rout’s statement.
When no one came forward with Rout, he joined a civil society RTI forum and has been conducting anti-corruption rallies at different places with them. Panda and Kanungo are not yet seen in Rout’s meetings. Rout has neither formed a party nor has joined the BJP or the Congress. He gets support from the BJP and the Congress while conducting local meetings.
He talks about corruption by the BJD Government. Since he was a Minister in the State Government and his son is still a secretary in the BJD, people generally don’t believe his story.
Several regional parties have been formed in Odisha. Gantantra Parishad was a successful State party (1952-74) under RN Singdeo. Harekrushna Mahtab and Biju Patnaik were two Congress drop-outs who had formed two regional parties successfully such as the Jana Congress and the Utkal Congress (1967-74). They could not sustain for longer. The BJD has become the first successful regional party but it was not formed by drop outs.
Bijay Mohapatra as a BJD drop-out had formed the OGP which won two seats in the 2004 elections. Later, he could not sustain. Party dropouts like Braja Kishore Tripathy, Kharabela Swain, Soumya Ranjan Patnaik and Pyarimohan Mohapatra had formed new political parties but fought the 2014 elections unsuccessfully. At the national level, successful regional parties like the NCP, TMC and AIDMK have been formed by the dropouts. A successful new party depends much on the political environment.
As the BJP is rising, the Congress is reviving and the BJD is consolidating in Odisha now, it is not a favorable condition for a new regional party. The BJD dropouts may join the BJP or the Congress. Their political survival depends on their strategy. However, the Opposition shall use them and the BJD has to defend.