I was having dinner a few weeks ago when a local TV channel broadcast a sound bite of Odisha Jan Morcha (OJM) supremo Pyarimohan Mohapatra.
He proclaimed that there would be a 12-party alliance led by the OJM which would take on the BJD and Congress in 2014. I almost chocked on the food. Twelve political parties; and that too fighting for a common purpose! It sounded too humungous to be true. But having tracked Pyari for the last two years, I was aware the man was not barfing in the wind. Being a political mathematician, he had already extrapolated some data to get to this conclusion. And so being an aspiring political mathematician myself, I also dug into the data and tried to make some statistical sense of this statement.
I formed a hypothesis of 12 possible parties which could be parts of this Mahamenta (Grand Alliance). Firstly, it’s OJM followed by the BJP, BSP, NCP, Koshal Kranti Dal, Kalinga Sena, Republican Party of India (Athavale), Samruddha Odisha, JMM, Utkal Bharat, Samata Kranti Dal of Brajakishore Tripathy and George Tirkey and a Congress rebels’ group, especially in the backdrop of Soumya Ranjan Patnaik’s removal from the party.
Firstly, the OJM has been wooing the BJP, and elements within the BJP would also like a shot in the arm by allying with Pyari notwithstanding KV Singh Deo’s denials. The BSP is known to have been close to Pyari so much so that it is rumoured that Pyari had got an earlier BSP State president Bhajaman Behera sacked for having tried to galvanise the BSP against the BJD in the laxmipur by-elections around April 2008.
The NCP is still smarting under the blow of all its four MlAs joining the BJD and, therefore, might want to have trucks with Pyari. The KKD has some pockets of influence in western Odisha and the Kalinga Sena is also led by regional ideologies in a few pockets. The RPI(A) has been making some inroads through the Dalit community and holds a few thousand votes in some Assembly segments. The Samruddha Odisha has consolidated its position in a couple of places and had gained a pan-Odisha vote share of about one per cent in the last elections. The JMM, though being supported by the Congress in Jharkhand to run the Government, the Odisha may not be in a mood to enter into any alliance with it, and, therefore, the JMM might recline into the OJM’s comfort. The Utkal Bharat led by Kharavela Swain has pockets of influence in Baleswar, Mayurbhanj and Keonjhar and could come in handy while handling with the BJP as well since Swain is a well-known rightwing ideologue and former BJP MP. Brajakishore Tripathy, who missed BJD election ticket of Puri in 2009, might want to get his vengeance by opposing the BJD and prefer to enter into a larger game with a stronger cushion in OJM and BJP to boot.
Finally, the rebel Congress. After Pyari’s statement about the possibility of Congress rebels being part of the Mahamenta, the buzz is that expelled Congress leader Soumya Ranjan Patnaik might form an independent campaign parallel to the Pradesh Congress to go against PCC president Jayadev Jena to prove a point to the party high command. The Samajwadi Party has been kept out since the BSP is part of this alliance. The Communists, JD(U), lJP, RJD, RSP have been left out since the BJP is an ally in this confabulation.
Statistically, the numbers of these parties make sense. Considering the 2009 election vote-shares of these parties, the BJP had garnered 15.05%, BSP 1.54%, NCP 1.34%, KKD 0.15%, Kalinga Sena 0.18%, RPI(A) 0.09%, Samruddha Odisha 1.05% and JMM 1.58%, aggregating 21% of total votes. With the vote-share of George Tirkey and his associates in Sundargarh coupled with Brajakishore Tripathy’s pocket votes in coastal Odisha, it might add up to 0.15%. The Utkal Bharat with its presence especially in north Odisha and drawing on its thin pockets of influence pan-Odisha can at best obtain about 0.85%. This adds another 1% to the tally, taking it to 22%.
The OJM, despite its hyped Kranti Samaveshs earlier and now the Jan Adhikar Yatra, might be able to generate about 6% vote-share in spite of Pyari’s strong influence in Koraput, Malkangiri, Rayagada, Nabarangpur, Dhenkanal, Angul, Talcher and pockets of western Odisha. This takes the tally to 28%. The rebel Congress has the advantage of loyalists across the 147 Assembly segments. Since 1980 up to 2009 (when KP Singh Deo took over), the Congress ticket distributions had been through the aegis of the JB Patnaik family. This has spawned a large network of sympathisers who feel slighted and might help Soumya to upset Jayadev’s applecart. Despite Soumya and Niranjan Patnaik being unable to win their seats even in 2009, the Patnaiks can still influence about 6% of vote-share through dissidents’ help. This takes the tally to 34%. let’s still discount 4% towards errors. Still, the Mahamenta has about 30% in its kitty.
Compared to the Mahamanta’s 30% hypothetical vote-share, in 2009 the BJD had 38.86%, Congress 29.1% and the CPI(M) and CPI together contributing about 1%. The Independents brought up the rear with 10.42%. If the same vote percentages were to hold in 2014, the Mahamenta could spell trouble both for the BJD and Congress.
If the Mahamenta pools its resources and strategies and obtains one seat each for the BSP, NCP, KKD, KS, RPI(A), Samruddha, Samata Kranti, four for the JMM which is a distinct possibility, two from Utkal Bharat, seven from rebel Congress and 15 each from the BJP and OJM then it could get to 50 seats with 30% votes. Assuming the Congress would lose 6% due to rebels and BJD 3% due to Pyari’s OJM, the Congress might get to 20% votes with about 20 seats and the BJD with 34% would be closer to 65 seats with the Independents, left parties and others coming in with 12 seats. Pyari might be hoping for the CBI to do some damage to the BJD prior to 2014 or the rebel Congress to strengthen further and erode the Congress base greatly for the Mahamenta to benefit. Then, there might be a possibility of inching towards the 60-seat barrier and along with Independents would come closer to power.
During a confidence motion in the Assembly, Pyari might be able to get a few Congress and BJD MlAs to abstain and position himself into the Chief Minister’s chair. Within six months, he would have wrung a few BJD and Congress MlAs into his tally books and it would be difficult to get him away despite any number of no-confidence motions in the Assembly.
For this grand statistical plan to come into shape, three things have to fall in place. The BJP, despite its reservations, would have to join hands unconditionally. Narendra Modi would have to learn to trust Chanakya Pyari. After the battle, the smaller parties with one or two seats would have to stick to Pyari. In the world of shifting values, temptations galore can lead to the Mahamenta coming undone after the elections and the smaller parties scurrying to Naveen.
This equation of Pyari has many ifs and buts. But then so is politics. Underestimating a political rival since you are riding a power elephant can be suicidal. Being doubly sure is the order of the day when dealing with a strategist like Pyari. Perhaps, he is yet to display his last card. The BJD and Congress can take note that their best efforts can still result in a tight situation if the movement of vote-shares is not watched carefully.
As in cricket, an eye on the required run-rate is more important than the wickets in hand. In politics, the vote-share at play is more important than star campaigners, manifestos and ticket distribution. The OJM alone would be a nonentity and nonstarter. As an alliance, it could be the proverbial dark horse just when the punters were rejoicing over the possibility of a victory for a favoured horse.