As per the constitutional provision, India is a three- tier democratic setup, comprising of lok Sabha, State Assembly and local self Government institutions. Polls are conducted diligently once in every five years to these bodies and the elected people’s representatives assume office.
These three bodies have different powers and responsibilities and their quality of performance varies from State to State. Though elections of local self Government bodies were designed to be non-partisan, political parties later took over these bodies. Thus Panchyati Raj Institution (PRI) system has not only become the decentralization point of national governance process but also has embodied the grass root caders of political parties.
While the Election Commission of India conducts lok Sabha and Assembly polls, the State Election Commissions conduct polls for rural local bodies (the PRIs)/ Urban local Bodies. Election to the PRI in Odisha was last conducted in February 2012 and the next election is due in February 2017. Panchayat reorganization process has been completed and there is nearly five months to the poll. As Odisha will face UlB poll in 2018 and the Assembly poll in April 2019, the outcome of 2017 PRI poll shall influence the next two elections. This is the major reasons why 2017 PRI poll has become so important for political parties in Odisha.
Every Indian State exhibits unique voter behaviour in polls. Inside a State, there are also regional and rural-urban differences in voters’ behaviour. Odisha voters were so obsessed with regional party BJD and State politics that they did not examine between UPA and NDA in 2014 Parliament poll but elected 20 BJD MPs, though BJD had earlier clarified that it would maintain equidistance from BJP and Congress, meaning it would not have any role in Union Government formation. But Odisha people voted for BJD in 2014. Between April 2014 and February 2017, the BJD has faced many issues but it is still strong so far as its grassroots connection is concerned. Opposition has not been successful in diminishing the image of the party. So, the BJD will face the 2017 Panchayt poll with 20 MPs, 116 MlAs and huge political machinery under party boss and Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik.
2012 PRI poll was conducted by its erstwhile strategist and MP Pyarimohan Mohaptra who is no more in the party. But the BJD is likely to follow some of his poll strategy. BJD fought 2012 PRI poll by declaring 50 per cent seats reserved for women in PRI systems, a polarization of votes on gender line. The same 50 per cent criterion continues this year and women shall favor BJD. BJD shall follow its successful strategy of 2013 UlB polls , where the MlAs shall be given responsibility to win ZP candidates failing which they will be warned of losing MlA ticket in 2019. The BJD can also use swapping tactics. It can make a deal with the opponents to take away ZP seats, in exchange for Sarpanch seats. BJD shall also use co-option strategy where it can take winning opposition candidates to its side after results are declared like it happened in West Bengal UlB poll. The party can satisfy some dissidents and opponents by giving them work contracts or some benefits.
The State Government might declare some schemes before poll and th BJD will use its star campaigner Naveen Patnaik to address election rallies and inaugurate new projects. It is discussed that the ruling party candidates shall use election funds to the maximum if organizational efforts fail to keep BJP and Congress at bay. There is an estimate that the expenditure by ZP candidates might go up to Rs 20 lakh and Sarapanch might spend Rs 5 lakh in 2017.
What about anti-incumbency factor for BJDIJ The aggrieved ration card non-recipients might be given ration card promise and the chit fund affected small investors might be given Government sop or a promise to this effect. In West Bengal, chit fund scam did not kill votes of ruling party leaders and it might be the same situation in Odisha. The chit fund scam accused leaders might do well in their ZP zones. But NFSA can be a real vote destroyer. The State Government might create a food security law to cover the uncovered aspirants of the NFSA. The new policy of rotation of Sarpanch’s reservation seat every five year, shall structurally eliminate sitting BJD Sarapanchs and dilute anti-incumbency automatically. The ZP and PS member posts are changing in every five years to help BJD dilute anti-incumbency. The State Government has appointed retired teachers on call in schools and they will create good public opinion in the villages for the State Government. The Government might listen to school teachers and Anganwadi staff’s salary issue before the 2017 poll.
BJD shall keep its MPs away from PRI poll as it did last time. Though some senior leaders shall be posted in various districts, the MlAs shall be really responsible to give results. BJD can also use its police and administrative machinery to crosscheck information about candidates and dissidents and create their image.
On the other hand, the opposition BJP and Congress are expected to do well in those Assembly constituencies where they have MlAs. This might help BJP to form district ZP body in Nuapada or Deogarh and Congress to form ZP district body in Koraput. The question arises is to what extent Congress or BJP can give results beyond their MlA constituencies. While for Congress unity is crucial for success, for BJP it is booth presence. BJD always takes benefit from the opposition fragmentation as BJP and Congress are ideologically opposed parties. But can they work out segment sharing secretlyIJ This is very unlikely. The unity between BJP and Congress on Mahanadi issue was creating trouble for BJD but it was short-lived. In this situation, unless BJD breaks due to internal conflicts, the Opposition cannot take visible share of the ruling party’s cake. Therefore coastal areas shall be again dens of BJD in 2017.
Can BJP make western Odisha its den in 2017 PRI pollsIJ BJP has made huge membership drives and formed committees at booth levels. It has targeted west Odisha as its priority area and has made one west Odisha MlA its State president. It distributes free gas cylinders under Ujjala scheme to woo women voters. But can it make its presence felt in Kalahadi,Nuapada, Balangir, Boudh, Bargarh, Jharsuguda, Sambalpur Deogarh and Sundergarh etc . It depends on the booth presence of the party, the strength of the constituency leader, selection of right candidates and most importantly, election funding and star campaigners during poll. If party can use Prime Minister Narendra Modi in some constituencies, it will win seats. The unity in the party is also vital for performance in coastal areas.
Unlike BJP, Congress is trying to improve its performance in the whole State. It does not focus on one segment like west or south or coastal areas. Critics point out this as the reason for failure in polls since 2000. According to experts, Congress can show better results if it focuses on some zones or constituencies where conflicts are less and they have booth presence. They should match between their capacity and number of constituencies. Another major hurdle before the Congress is their in-party conflict. Though they have booth presence in more than 80 Assembly constituencies, Pradep Majhi’s forest land right campaign appears to be a move to activate PRI caders in undivided Koraput districts. Party also picked up Baliguda police firing issue. Winning in some recent urban body by-election seats has inspired Congress workers. But it depends how they strategize themselves.
The Hirakud water issue was played by all political parties and it shall continue to be a political fireball for some more time. But BJD has taken maximum mileage from the issue by building its image which was getting tarnished by chit fund scam attack of the Opposition. Opposition is yet to hit the ruling party appropriately at multiple layers.
There is no visible political activity of the newly floated parties like OJM, Ama Odisha, SKD and Utakal Bharat though they are active in one or two Assembly constituencies. There was a talk of formation of a new political party but nothing happened as no dissident leader of the main political parties likes to take risk and invest money. Thus the PRI shall be fought among three players viz BJD, Congress and BJP and BJD still may be in the lead role.