The Supreme Court has proved yet again that it knows its job just too well. The Congress scored better than the overconfident ‘Ram Rajya’ dreamers. Ditto in Manipur. The Goa Congress victors got complacent and sat down to relax for a day after their counterparts in UP had suffered a crushing defeat, BJP generals knew time was running out. They staked claim; the Governor felt satisfied and invited them to form Government as per legal provisions. The Congress moved court which told them they did not come forward in good time and can only thwart BJP win on the floor of the House. The apex court gave Parrikar only two days to prove majority instead of fifteen, which could have made the environment favourable for craftiest horse trading.
Despite its massive victory in UP, there is no reason for the BJP to celebrate. In Goa and Manipur, it has lost. It’s crystal clear that IITian Parrikar was personally the hero for his simple lifestyle and extremely people-friendly conduct. Now that he has left, the Defence Ministry will take a beating. Scams issues are likely to surface with greater virulence.
For the BJP, pollsters predicted ‘No No’ in Punjab, tough fight in UP; but in Manipur and Goa most savoury cakewalk. Except Punjab, every other forecast has gone grossly wrong. As the latest analysis is filtering in, we get to know, there was also a big undercurrent of anti-incumbency in UP, which got overshadowed by the farcical internal fight that was conceived for sometime as orchestrated stage play to show democracy was above family considerations. The split that occurred confused the voters who were persuaded to believe by the opponents that when the party home was in turmoil, stability was absolutely ruled out. Further, alliance with the age-old sinning Congress would bring doom to the region. Beyond all this foul play, Mulayam erred on the family front rather too stupidly. Even ordinary daily wagers could figure out the fact that the ‘Pahelman politician’ was crazy to eat the cake and have it too. He is madly fond of Akhilesh; at the same time overtly obsessed with the second wife’s son Prateek who minced no words in public about his sky-high political ambitions. Akhilesh cringed at Prateek’s name and insisted that the latter be kept out of sight, no matter what the financial cost. The most hurting rumour that irked sensitive common citizens of the State is that Mulayam’s family had amassed incalculable wealth by corrupt means. The BJP’s publicity outfit played its role too well. They hyped Modi beyond all limits and maligned the Akhilesh-Rahul duo so well that by the polling time the world around there had come to believe the BJP was the only messiah. In minute analysis, Akhilesh lost due to Congress alliance; he could have done a lot better alone as the masses still held him in awe. lastly, the tragic flaw pointed out by the opponents was the fact he fielded some worthless candidates, sycophants and thugs, which cost him more dearly. No need to mention the wicked role of the social media which moves the young voters like mad. It’s also not untrue that the mainstream media didn’t play its ethical role the way the Election Commission failed to act fittingly and fast against brazenly code-violating rogues.
In Goa, the incumbent Chief Minister laxmikant Parsekar took a big beating in Mandrem from Congress candidate Dayanand Sopte. People rejected him for being a misfit. The Modi wave failed to espouse even the BJP cadres there as Parsekar had messed up the organisation. The Maharashtra Gomantak Party (MGP), which was in an alliance with the BJP earlier, broke away from it in 2016, further weakening the Government’s mandate. The MGP, in fact, put up candidates against the BJP this time. The influence of Dayanand Bandodkar, the State’s first CM, still holds in the Mandrem constituency which Parsekar was unable to overcome. Moreover, the revolt by sacked RSS Goa chief Subhas Velingkar last year, breaking away from the parent organisation and campaigning against the BJP by forming his own party, may also have dented the BJP’s fortunes. Parrikar has been sent back to turn Goa the BJP fortress it used to be during his reign.
The shocking surprise for AAP leaders is the crushing defeat the party suffered in Goa. Some pollsters had predicted the underdog outfit to emerge as the leading victor holding the key to forming Government. Western India has not lapped up the beauty of AAP sops as yet. Subtler strategies are to be devised by the Kejriwal team to move the western Indian hearts. The AAP has, however, saved face in Punjab. It would have done much better had it struck the principle of denying tickets to man-wife duos, on which ground the superbly popular Sidhu abandoned the party. Everyone knew too well that the BJP-SAD alliance was finished. But the Congress victory has been more massive than imagined because of Sidhu.
Everything said and seen, the BJP must start reflecting how they lost to the Congress in Manipur and Goa. That’s for sure a national defeat. In western Odisha, horrible characters, street hoodlums and gangsters to be precise, beat up a leader like gangsters do and had to be dismissed. The BJP may have fattened its coffers with good political funding, but it has to reassess and scrutinise the acts of its frontlines, without which no way can they capture seats in 2019.
The Biju Janata Dal in Odisha has a lot to learn from the five States’ election outcomes. People, now more influenced by the social media than the mainstream ones, can sway in any unpredictable direction if credibility factors go low due to arrogance and apathy of the believably popular leaders. There seems to be no possibility of an alliance with the BJP unless a Chief Minister quality is hauled up by the party at least to be deputy to Naveen. The BJP may gain some berths, but there is no one so credible to be considered Chief Ministerial material. Even if an alliance happens, the BJD will be the benefactor and the BJP the beneficiary in seat allocations. The probability is just remote.
Many believe the BJP can’t come clean on charges of intolerance. Witness the minority-bashing utterances of BJP leaders like Sakshi Maharaj, Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti and Giriraj Singh. But at the end of two years, the Modi Government can be rated rather fairly. It is the first Government which instead of catering to populist slogans has tried to empower people in a real sense through schemes. Having a bank account was a dream of the poor, and the Jan Dhan has realised that by opening bank accounts for 21 crore poor families. By 2019, six crore poor families which cook on chulhas and attract deadly lung-based and other diseases will have got lPG connections. It must be known that even after 70 years of Independence, 18,000 villages were without electricity in India when the BJP took over. Today, 9,000 have already been electrified and almost all villages will be covered by 2018. The Modi Government has changed the definition of employment. Earlier, it was linked to just jobs. Through schemes like Startup India, Standup India and Mudra, which have given employment to more than 3.49 crore people, we have opened new avenues of self-employment.
For the first time, culture and trade have got a key space in Modi’s foreign policy. In just two years, India, which had become a backbencher, is in the frontline among nations known for social harmony. The world looks up to Modi as a highly popular, visionary and transparent leader. The way the Modi Government is working, with just the national good as its core agenda, it may come back yet again in the absence of movers and shakers in the Congress. Regional parties are bound to bounce back and give national outfits a run for life. Modi has to give the masses a quality of life nearly as good as the Eastern Europe. Good free education for kids, good healthcare through truly effective insurance nets and, above all, making the rural regions more livable by investing in agriculture and some kind of ‘back-to-nature’ incentive.
Akhilesh spoilt the young people by giving them free smart phones. The youths forgot the rest of the world and kept exploring on the virtual nonsense nonstop.
(The writer is a core member of Transparency International, Odisha)