Even as everyone is anxiously waiting for the counting of votes and official announcement of results of the twin elections in Odisha on Friday, a general perception has gained ground that the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) will capture power for a record fourth straight term but with a reduced majority compared to its 2009 performance.
The Naveen Patnaik-headed BJD is likely to bag about 85 of the 147 Assembly seats, which is a substantial loss of its effective 23 seats against the last election’s figure.
As for the lok Sabha elections, the BJD is also perceived to win a quite lesser number of seats this time. The party will perhaps not be able to go beyond 11 of the total 21 seats, which is shorter than its 2009 tally of 14. It may also be remembered that the BJD’s last-time ally, the CPI, had won one lok Sabha seat.
The widely-prevalent perception of the BJD’s scaled-down show is not only based on the exit polls by various media houses over the last three days but was also evident from the public response during the election campaigning in the State.
The two major factors that will determine the poll results are the nation-wide Narendra Modi wave and an anti-incumbency trend against the BJD, at least in many constituencies.
Had the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had a stronger organisational strength in the State, it could have stalled the BJD on its track to retain power with a clear majority in this election. In fact, whatever the BJP will gain, and that will be a substantial one, is due to the Modi magic.
This will particularly be reflected in the lok Sabha poll results without a commensurate benefit to the saffron party in terms of Assembly seats. large numbers of people are known to have voted for the party to see Modi as the Prime Minister.
The BJD’s fortunes would also have been substantially affected if the State’s main Opposition party, the Congress, had not been an utterly divided house, perhaps its worst record, just on the eve of the elections when many of its leaders, especially including the leader of Opposition in the Assembly, jumped to the BJD band wagon, leaving the grand old party’s rank and file demoralised.
Still, the Congress may better its Assembly poll performance this time due to the same two factors of the Modi wave and anti-establishment feeling against the BJD. The Congress is likely to come out victorious in the constituencies where the BJP’s vote percentage has gone up at the cost of the BJD’s but it has failed to achieve the seats.