In the 2019 Assembly elections, the ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) had bagged 112 seats and 44.7 % votes in Odisha ,followed by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winning 23 seats (32.49%) votes and occupying the position of the principal opposition party in the State Assembly while the Congress finished third by securing nine seats and 16.12 % votes. The three major political parties maintained the same first, second and third positions in the Assembly by-elections that followed the general elections, except in Tirtol where Congress stood second. In the by-elections, the Congress lost its 2019 vote share heavily.
The 2024 Zilla Parishad election re-established the same competitive position of the three major political parties. The ruling BJD led the show by bagging 766 Zila Parsishad seats out of 852 that went to the poll and bagged 52.73% of the valid votes polled. This was followed by the BJP which bagged 42 seats and 30% votes and Congress secured 37 seats and 13.57% votes.
The big gain, particularly in the percentage of vote share of BJD in the rural polls, is unprecedented since the party came to power in the State in 2000. Such a scale of victory indicates not only strong pro-incumbency voting but also the grassroots organisational strength of the ruling party and its successful election strategy. “Naveenism” as a political and development ideology has re- shown its sustenance.
The loss of Zilla Parishad seats of the BJP in comparison to 2017 Zilla Parisahd election is quite significant, like a Waterloo. However, the party has reasons to feel less worried if it compares its vote share to the 2019 Assembly election. The vote share has fallen by 2.5 % only, from 32.49% to 30%. Similarly, the fall in Congress’s vote share from 16.12 % in 2019 to the present level of 13.57% is 2.5% only which may not be much worrying for the party. In fact, the party has reasons to feel happy as it could improve its disastrous vote share of by-elections.
Interestingly though the BJP and Congress had bagged 30% and 14% votes in the current Zilla Parishard election respectively, the wide gap in the percentage of votes has not been reflected in the number of seats.
Though the percentage of vote of the BJP is almost double of Congress, the number of seats of the two parties is nearly the same. This has happened because the Congress votes have been consolidated in a few seats leading to the win while the BJP votes were spread over large areas but could not fill up the pots. This is an interesting trend. Though the Congress people feel happy to have won almost the same number of Zilla Parishad seats as that of the BJP, they must realise their vote share is just half of the BJP which means the BJP still continues as the principal opposition party.
The opposition parties have a challenging task of analysing the reasons behind the drop in their 2019-vote share and take up corrective measures.
Now having said this, a pertinent question striking the mind is whether the performance of the BJD shall influence the forthcoming urban body polls? Whether this growth in the percentage of vote share of the BJD shall be sustainable for 2024 general elections?
The Panchayat poll performance of the BJD shall surely influence the voters in the forthcoming urban polls. But the organisational and candidate factors of the ruling party shall also influence the urban body polls as this time there shall be direct election to the post of Mayor and Chairpersons of the urban bodies. On the other hand, if the opposition has done better election planning than the rural polls, they shall perform better.
With regard to the sustainability of the 52% vote share of the BJD for 2024 polls, two views can be debated. One view is that the new grassroots leaders, the new equations and the new social engineering that have been created during the rural polls at the semi-Block levels have fortified the BJD in more and more Assembly constituencies. Even the opposition MLAs have lost their Zilla Parishad candidates in their respective constituencies. Two more years to the general election from now, the BJD could further increase its vote share from 52% by adopting new welfare schemes and managing its organisation further well. On the other hand, the BJP may not be in the same level of popularity in 2024 as its Government at the centre shall face anti-incumbency since it would have completed two terms. Similarly, the Congress will unlikely improve its national image and the State organisation within two years.
The other viewpoint is that the issues in the local body election are different from the issues of Assembly elections. The voters know that the local body election cannot change the Government and therefore they tilt towards the ruling party for more welfare benefits. But in Assembly elections, the opposition’s campaign for change of Government makes the anti-incumbency factor stronger and pulls votes towards the opposition parties. So the 52% vote share of the BJD cannot be maintained in 2024 general elections.
However, the spectacular win of the BJD in the rural polls cannot be overlooked as a small phenomenon. It should awaken the opposition parties in the State to review their day-today activities, their organisation capacity, their election- narrative and election strategies and so on and play their role more actively than before. They should review if the issues they have taken up in the last three years were really in line of people’s expectations. Whether the ill-health rumours against the Chief Minister at the poll-time boomeranged? The BJP needs to look into issues like if the Prime Ministerial praise for the CM Patnaik, BJD’s allegation of Central-negligence, price rise, farmers’ protests and so on dampened the poll prospects of the BJP. Both BJP and Congress should think whether the leadership, organisational and resource issues of the State units led to their dismal performance. After all, a healthy democracy needs a strong opposition.