The number of extremely hot days in Odisha is projected to increase by 30 times from 1.62 in 2010 to 48.05 by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow at the current rates till the end of the century. The State is projected to see 42,334 excess deaths due to increase in temperature
India, as a whole, will see the number of extremely hot days per year increasing by more than eight times from 5.1 (in 2010) to 42.8 (by 2100), shows a new study released here on Monday.
The study is the first in a series of findings estimating the human and economic costs of climate change and weather shocks in India, conducted by the Climate Impact Lab in collaboration with the Tata Centre for Development at UChicago.
In a high-emission scenario, the State is projected to see a 3.32°C rise in average summer temperature from 28.87°C in 2010 to 32.19°C by 2100. It is far higher than the national average increase from about 24°C to about 28°C by the end of the century.
Neighbouring Andhra Pradesh is close behind, which is likely to see a temperature rise of 3.07°C.
“Odisha has a history of experiencing extreme heat related fatalities. In 1998, the State of Odisha faced an unprecedented heat wave situation, resulting in death of 2,042 people. Though extensive awareness campaigns have largely reduced the number of casualties post 1998 period, still a number of casualties are being reported each year. With climate change projections signalling a 30 times rise in extremely hot days, it calls for amplified efforts to be put in place to build resilience, particularly for the vulnerable communities,” says OSDMA CGM Pradeep Kumar Nayak.
According to the study, under a high-emission scenario, 16 out of the 36 States and union territories are estimated to become hotter than Punjab, which is currently the hottest State in the country with an average annual temperature just below 32°C (as of 2010). Punjab is likely to continue to be India’s hottest State in 2100 with average annual temperature around 36°C.
The spike in average summer temperature and number of extremely hot days will have an impact on mortality, finds the study. Odisha is projected to see 42,334 excess climate-related deaths due to increase in temperature. It is almost five times more than the total deaths the State records due to cardiac arrest every year. Six states, Uttar Pradesh (4,02,280), Bihar (1,36,372), Rajasthan (1,21,809), Andhra Pradesh (1,16,920), Madhya Pradesh (1,08,370), and Maharashtra (1,06,749) would contribute 64 of total excess deaths expected to be 15,43,708 each year due to temperature rise.
Between 2010 and 2018, over 6,100 people have died in India due to heat wave, with Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and West Bengal together reporting more than 90 and of total deaths.
Climate Impact Lab co-founder Michael Greenstone said, “These finding makes clear that the continued reliance on fossil fuels globally will greatly harm the well-being of Indians in the coming years and decades. They also underscore the need to find innovative adaptation strategies. This global energy challenge that requires countries to balance the need for inexpensive and reliable sources of energy that is critical for growth, while managing climate and air pollution risks is perhaps the defining challenges of our generation.”