Is Odisha going to face another cyclone on October 11-12 like the September ‘cyclone Daye’? The answer is ‘possibly no’ if the current weather parameters of the Bay of Bengal are of any indication to go by.
While the IMD has only indicated of formation of a LPA in central and south Bay of Bengal (BoB) by October 8, which is likely to become a well marked area and move towards Odisha in the subsequent 72 hours, the model of Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) clearly suggests it converting into a tropical depression by October 10-11.
The significant reminder here is tropical depression in BoB in October could turn into a cyclone when conditions of BoB are favourable.
According to INCOIS, the LPA could turn into tropical depression by October 10-11 given the wind speed in BoB then would be around 12-14m/s, which is highly favourable for formation of a depression.
The model further indicates the tropical depression to convert into a cyclonic storm by October 12. But the respite apparently discernible from the INCOIS model is the ‘possible’ storm though would move close to the Odisha coast, but it would drift along the coast, get intensified and then would make landfall in Bangladesh.
However, what looks certain at least now is Odisha would witness heavy to very heavy rainfall along the coastal areas on October 11-12. The sea would also remain rough and wind speed could roar from 60 to 80 km/hr during the dates.
The significant climatic change, however, witnessed now in Odisha is post the monsoon withdrawal the State has been witnessing around 2-3 degree Celsius over and above the normal maximum day temperature and around 1-2degree Celsius over and above the normal minimum temperature since beginning of October making the weather hot and sultry.
The maximum day temperatures in coastal belt in Odisha have been hovering around 34-35degrees Celsius and minimum temperatures hovered at around 26-27degrees Celsius.
The effect: Hot and humid climate followed by heavy to very heavy rainfall would affect the farming and farmers badly.
Moreover, an analysis at the end of 2018 monsoon brings to fore some significant climatic changes in Odisha.
Though the State on the whole has received 12 per cent excess rainfall, month wise analysis shows Odisha receiving uneven rainfall this monsoon. In June, except the four districts of Kendrapada, Jagatsinghpur, Puri and Cuttack, the State as a whole witnessed deficient rainfall as the rainfall anomaly was to the extent of a high of (-50) to (-75)mm.
And in July as many as five districts of Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri have witnessed very heavy rainfall as the rainfall anomaly was estimated at (+) 100mm.
Significantly, in August the very districts that witnessed excess rainfall in June have recorded a negative rainfall anomaly to the tune of (-100 to -50mm), only to witness a positive rainfall anomaly to tune of 150mm in September.
Overall, this monsoon season (Jun – Sept) Odisha has recorded deficient rainfall in June but good rainfall in July, August and September.
But the excess rainfall has been received by around 10 to 12 districts only.