Since the resurgent attack of H1N1 influenza (swine flu) in 2009 globally, Odisha has recorded its highest ever such cases in 2017 till September 1. Even, the fatality toll in the 2017 episodic H1N1 grip on the State has peaked to an all-time high.
Still worse waits for the State when the season of mass festivals has set in and as swine flu spreads like rapid fire in crowded conditions. The month of September would be challenging for the State health authorities to control the raging disease.
Odisha has recorded a total of 329 H1N1 positive cases till September 1 this year vis-à-vis mere 92 in 2010, when the State had witnessed the worst swine flu scare. More so, the death toll till September 1 this year has touched 32 against 29 in 2010. Notably, post the declaration of end of pandemic H1N1 in August 2010, Odisha didn’t record even half a dozen H1N1 cases till 2014.
However, the swine flu cases had recorded a sudden rise to over 70 in 2015, but the year 2016 recorded a mere one case.
Significantly, the case positive rate (CPR) in the State in 2017 is estimated higher at around 35 per cent, but the case fatality rate (CFR) is around 10 per cent against 31 per cent in 2010, which was reasoned by the State health authorities as an evidence of the situation under control now.
But the warning shot for the State is the CFR nationally is only around 5 per cent. Except Maharashtra, States with high swine flu incidences like Gujarat, UP, Kerala, Rajasthan, Delhi, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have CFR below 5 per cent only. This fact reveals that the mortality rate in Odisha is higher in 2017 compared to other high-incidence States, which brings to the fore the prevalence of more risk factors in Odisha that were fuelling the swine flu fatality rate.
Though experts at this stage couldn’t pinpoint the exact reason/risk factor behind the peaking of swine flu cases in Odisha this year, they believe that since Odisha figured among the top-5 states in the country with cases of Acute Respiratory Disease Syndrome (ARDS), which is considered a strong risk-factor for the swine flu, could be among the reasons behind the high fatality rate.
Moreover, lack of surveillance on influenza like illnesses (IlIs) proved counterproductive for the State when H1N1 strikes big this year. Notably, Odisha has recorded a whopping 24.8 lakh ARDS cases in 2016 against only 23.4 lakh in 2015, reveal data from the Health Directorate. However, the directorate has no such data on cases of IlIs as no surveillance was done.
“Repeated recurrence of swine flu in India since 2012 should have been an alert for the State to put in place permanent mechanisms like a swine flu taskforce to monitor and map vulnerable populace for vaccination, but lack of such mechanisms fuelled the swine flu cases this year in Odisha,” observed a senior scientist at the Regional Medical Research Centre (RMRC) here.