It seems like lord Jagannath’s Rath Yatra, cyclone has become an annual event in Odisha. The severe cyclone Phailin hit Gopalpur coast on October 12, 2013 evening while cyclone Hudhud hit Visakhapatnam exactly on the same day in 2014, but this time before noon. Hudhud also caused devastation in southern parts of Odisha.
With two cyclones, one after another, causing devastation, the question making rounds is what is there in store for us in 2015IJ No one can say for sure that another cyclone would not hit the State next year.
In fact, Odisha has turned out to be a disaster-prone zone. Therefore, what should be the Government’s approachIJ The Government has, however, put in place a model — that of ‘zero casualty’ — to save human lives from the disaster.
While the human casualty in 1999 Super Cyclone was about 12,000, it was reduced to 21 in the cyclone Phailin in 2013. Now the number has further been reduced to three.
However, is it possible to avoid cyclones in the eastern parts of the countryIJ Odisha has a coastline of 480 km exposing it to the vagaries of cyclones and floods in the last 105 years. The State has been adversely affected 95 times during this period.
“The frequency and intensity of cyclones in the State has been increasing due to climate change,” a Draft Report of the State Action Plan for Climate Change (SAPCC) reveals. While the State Government has been making plans to create green corridor and coastal highway, scientists associated with climate change opine that the State is a victim of vagaries of monsoon leading to drought, heavy precipitation in some pockets leading to floods and is also regular victim of tropical cyclone. “Many of these events are triggered by warming of the sea surface,” the report said.
Though the State administration has been able to reduce human casualty in disasters, can it bring down the temperature of the sea surfaceIJ Now, it’s a challenge for the scientific community of India to think about the formula on how to manage disasters by maintaining the sea surface temperature.
Protection of a number of human lives during cyclones in 2013 and 2014 has been possible mostly due to the efficiency of our scientists. Take the instance of Hudhud. The IMD located a cyclonic circulation in sea near Andaman on October 6, which later took different shapes to become a very severe cyclonic storm that hit the coast at a speed of 170 kmph on October 12. The scientists were watching every movement of the system and finally warned the administration about the cyclone.
This type of warning was not there when the Super Cyclone hit Odisha in 1999. Just during a span of 15 years, India has developed a lot in terms of weather forecasting and oceanography. Now scientists make proper use of satellites, radars and other equipment and make exact prediction, even the specific locations where cyclones would make landfall.
However, challenges are many. Despite preparedness, Odisha this time experienced a surprising event along the coast. A sudden tidal surge flooded Puri coast and also many parts of Rajnagar area in Kendrapara district. Neither the IMD nor any other agency could forecast the tidal surge.
“We are surprised over the incident at Puri and Rajnagar, just a few hours ahead of the landfall of cyclone Hudhud. We have urged the IMD to study the phenomenon,” Special Relief Commissioner P K Mohapatra said.
This surprise tidal surge claimed one life of the total three persons killed in the cyclone this time.Now Odisha has implemented a major World Bank funded Integrated Coastal Zone Management Project (ICZMP) focused on coastal adaption. One of the key priorities of the project is prediction of sea level rise through appropriate modeling. The first such study has been done here by using equipment like wave rider buoy, tide gauge, current meter and others. “This will significantly enhance State’s preparedness,” the scientists associated with ICZMP said.
The ICZMP also conducts study on impact of global warming on the coastal ecosystem. While pinning hopes on the scientific community, the State Government cannot leave the people to the fury of nature. In the last century, the Indian sub-continent experienced 1,019 cyclonic disturbances of which 890 were along the eastern coast and 260 systems had made landfall along the Odisha coast.
Out of the total severe storms in the Bay of Bengal region, 15 per cent — which is one in six — affect Odisha coast. The severe storms of 1909, 1910, 1912, 1914, 1967, 1971 and the Super Cyclone in 1999 are known for their damages and devastations. The super cyclone was the incident of the highest magnitude in terms of the wind speed, loss of life, devastation and human miseries exceeding any such event in the century.
Among the eastern states, Odisha has reasons to be worried as 29 per cent of the total disturbances affect the State’s coast. Vulnerability of the State is relatively more in comparison to other States like West Bengal (14 per cent), Andhra Pradesh (13 per cent) and Tamil Nadu (7 per cent).
The revisit or recurrence time of a severe storm to the Odisha coast is around four years and for storms, it is nearly two years, which is much less than that of the other States.
Taking into account storms and severe storms together, the recurrence time is 1.3 years for Odisha followed by 1.8 years for Andhra Pradesh and 2.4 years for West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.
As Odisha is on the forefront in the eastern coast to face brunt of calamities, mostly cyclones, it needs to take steps to mitigate the challenge.
Only keeping some mechanized saws or constructing shelter homes will not save the State; it needs to do much more scientific endeavors to overcome the menace that eats into the State’s economy as well, feel many.