I am neither an astrologer nor a psephologist but this article is based on certain assumptions and undercurrents, the premising of which has come true on earlier instances for me.
My article titled “Uttar Pradesh elections: A shocker in the making” published online on February 26, 2012 and another inline article “UP elections 2012: Minorities will decide the leading horse” on February 28, 2012 were subjects of much amusement to many. Several also posted their views rather candidly stating I was way off the mark. When elections results poured in and Samajwadi Party secured a landslide victory with the help of the deciding minority vote, those emails came back stating the results validated my analysis. In the same election, another article by me titled, “Uttar Pradesh Elections 2012 Exit Polls: Take it with a pinch of salt, lime and pepper” published online on March 3, 2012 was considered pseudo-psephology by a reader wherein I had placed the SP, BSP, BJP and Congress in order of their expected positions in the electoral outcome of UP. When it came true, the same reader replied back, “It seems it was a flash in the pan.”
By mentioning a paragraph on my self-styled credibility building, all I intend to impress is that many readers will continue to chuckle at the present article’s title, but when the dust settles after the Odisha elections, this would probably have reiterated that my earlier article was not a flash in the pan.
This month we celebrate the first anniversary of the alleged coup by Naveen Patnaik’s onetime Chanakya and present bête-noire Pyarimohan Mohapatra. An article by me titled “Pyari: love him, hate him; ignore him at your risk!” was published on June 30, 2012. Several readers responded that I was unnecessarily dishing out an article on a deadwood. A few days back when Pyari’s partyman Jagneswar Babu was arrested, a reader e-mailed, “It seems Naveen is not risking ignoring Pyari though he may love or hate him.”
A party wins an election based on chemistry of its political leadership, arithmetic of its strategists, commitment of its party cadre and resource deployment by its most trusted lieutenants. In the 2004 and 2009 elections, the BJD’s secret to success had been the arithmetic number-crunching by Pyarimohan apart from effective resource deployment, not through the contesting BJD candidates but through a large network of dedicated foot-soldiers which ensured negligible transmission and distribution losses. For the forthcoming elections, it is rumoured an IAS officer held in confidence by Naveen is setting the arithmetic in place. His arithmetic is based on the number-crunching reportedly inspired from a relative who holds a senior position in Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK in Chennai. His political manoeuvers are reportedly also inspired by the AIADMK’s populist measures and Tamil Nadu’s vendetta politics. It is also purported that he was the one who set the equations in motion between Naveen and Jayalalithaa which led to Naveen’s meeting with Jaya in Chennai and terming her his “sister”.
With only 12 years’ administrative experience, a majority of which was spent as the Collector of Ganjam district which effectively endeared him to Naveen; the officer’s mathematics is an unknown entity compared to the time-tested equations of Pyari. Further, the officer suffers from a lack of clarity on cultural and emotive issues that charge an electorate in Odisha. While he was awarded for excellence in the MNREGA programme in 2010, turning those competencies into a successfully-woven strategy for the BJD on a laptop is quite a different ballgame. So, the arithmetic of Naveen’s strategist is suspect. Unlike Pyari who despite his differences with the Chief Secretary could still command loyalty by a section of the bureaucracy from the Secretariat to the tehsildars and BDOs, this officer has alienated himself from the bulk of the bureaucracy after his reported differences with very senior IAS officers. With Chief Secretary Bijay Patnaik set to relinquish his office in June 2013 and a new Chief Secretary, probably Jugal Mohapatra, set to take office, the skills in political management by a bureaucrat might be lacking, thereby rendering another body blow to Naveen. It is evident that Naveen will have to make do with inferior strategies for the coming elections compared to the earlier ones.
On the commitment of the BJD cadre as the second determinant for poll success: During the 2009 elections preceded by the split between the BJD and the BJP, the BJD cadre single-mindedly worked for Naveen’s success at the district and block levels. But now, the BJD cadre is confused and skeptical. Unlike earlier when the cadre could at least reach Pyarimohan as a proxy for Naveen, the tall gates of Naveen Niwas are presently shut on them. Even MlAs find it difficult to meet the boss. Further, the Pyari belligerence of hitting out at Naveen, turning his Odisha Jan Morcha into a political party, claiming to win 80 to 85 seats and for the first time openly expressing his interest to be Chief Minister, has left a large chunk of the BJD rank and file wary. They are aware that it is the same Chanakya who had prophetically claimed in 2009 that the party would win more than 100 seats.
Each Assembly constituency has to a certain extent some BJD cadres who possess a clandestine loyalty to Pyari and even a shift of 5,000 votes could have a massive impact on the prospects of the BJD candidates. One vote moving from the ruling party to the opposition party causes a gap of two votes and, therefore, 5,000 votes moving to the principal opposition (most likely Congress) candidate creates a gap of 10,000 between the BJD and the opposition. The recent NAC elections of Attabira, Hindol and Nuapada stand testimony to this fact.
Naveen would be inflicting a self-goal if he gets Pyari arrested on allegations of his links with Maoists. It would turn Pyari into a subject of sympathy. After the arrest of OJM’s Jagneswar Babu, the public is convinced that it’s Naveen’s game-plan to weaken the OJM and Pyari. If that was not so, why was Jagneswar not arrested earlier when he was still in the BJDIJ In politics, the general voter does not put his mind to all the technical reasons behind such arrests. If Jagneswar was corrupt, why was he arrested when he was with the OJM and not in the BJD, where he had so much clout that he was asked by Naveen to frame the party election manifesto in 2009IJ
Though comparing Pyari’s perceived impact in the face of the BS Yedyurappa’s effect on the recent Karnataka elections is inevitable, but let us take that topic at another day and time. To conclude on the second determinant, the party cadre seems confused and lacks the same enthusiasm which was seen during the last elections. This could well be one of the strongest nails on the BJD’s electoral coffin.
On resource deployment: It is rumoured that during the 2009 elections, a team would meticulously call up each BJD candidate at least thrice, once in the morning, then afternoon and night, to take inputs on the candidates’ needs on the ground and the resources required. The deployment was not done to the candidate as it had in all probability a danger of being siphoned off; it was Pyari’s network of process facilitators who met the need of the candidate without dishing the resources into his hands. It remains to be seen whether the IAS officer in question or someone else that sincere and strategic is able to don the mantle left behind by Pyarimohan.
Naveen’s chemistry: His aura and charisma is still quite evident. By far, he is the tallest leader in the Odisha political firmament. The Congress is still working its way up to project a strong face. Pyari has a stamp of authority from the general public due to the incessant spotlight on him. It is apparent that Naveen has left Pyari quite behind in popularity. But Naveen succeeded due to the successful booth committees and election management tactics inter-woven by Pyari. Without the cadre, the chemistry of Naveen is ineffective. His demure smile and simplicity-personified image are not able to sustain the positive dent in the mind of the electorate anymore as it was possible earlier. After 13 successive years of reign, the electorate is getting tired of him and there is a perceptible déjà-vu for change in the voters’ minds. It could be argued that in the absence of a comparable alternative face, Naveen cannot be voted out. But in case of Karnataka, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Haryana and Kerala, the Congress won without a perceptible strong face, and in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, the Congress lost despite strong alternative faces like Digvijay Singh, Pramod Tiwari/Rita Joshi Bahuguna and Capt Amarinder Singh, respectively.
Many would term it too early to predict electoral victory or defeat, but unless the BJD ties up with the BJP, by default the Pyarimohan factor is set to upset Naveen’s applecart. I still agree that Naveen’s defeat would be the result of a negative vote against him, a diversion of the BJD vote due to the cropping up of rebel candidates by Pyari and some positive vote for the Congress as the situation exists today. But nonetheless, Naveen’s defeat seems to be on the cards more distinctly today than ever more. If the lok Sabha elections are preponed to 2013, it would be bad news for Naveen.
With the Narendra Modi factor proving to be a dud outside Gujarat and the Pyarimohan factor emerging as a believable impact, the onus on the Congress to get high on the stirrups and ride to victory or wallow in factionalism and inflict a self-goal. For Naveen, presently the mirror seems to be cracking.
(Dr Sasmit Patra is a keen observer of the Odisha politics. He can be reached at sasmitpatra@gmail.com)