Even as Biju Janta Dal supremo Naveen Patnaik entered the last year of his third consecutive term as Chief Minister on Tuesday, the political developments during the preceding fourth year clearly appear to be quite unsettling for him with the next general elections approaching fast.
The dominant cause of Patnaik’s worry is the revolt of his onetime confidant-turned bête-noire Pyarimohan Mohapatra, who, after being cold-shouldered by him in party and Government affairs for some months, allegedly hatched an abortive coup to dislodge him from power on May 29 last year.
Patnaik knows it better than anyone else that Mohapatra has a thorough knowledge of the pan-Odisha political ground realities, especially the BJD organisational networks. He seems disturbed over the rallies held by Mohapatra under the banner of his new party Odisha Jan Morcha in different parts of the State in which sizeable numbers of people participate. And the majorities of the participants are BJD cadres who are disgruntled over being neglected by party leaders.
The Mohapatra factor has no doubt weakened the BJD at the grassroots level. Coupled with it, Patnaik’s added concern is that the main opposition party, the Congress, has gained strength at the cost of the BJD. As observers feel, Mohapatra may not cut much ice in term of electoral success, but his role and strategy would damage the BJD to the extent of upsetting Patnaik’s bid to return to power for a fourth time and helping the Congress gain handsomely.
Patnaik had also never faced so uncomfortable a situation as he is experiencing now for a number of scams hitting his regime. Added to the mega mining scam, the report of the judicial Shah Commission on which is awaited ahead of the elections, and various other scandals, the chit fund scam is the latest thorn in his flesh with allegations that some of his Ministers and MlAs acted as promoters of the tainted chit fund firms.
The law and order situation across the State was also not so bad as it is now with the graphs of all kinds of crimes, especially against women, on a steady rise.
The issues of the mysterious death of woman Ayush doctor Madhabilata Pradhan, the case of gangrape and murder of a Dalit girl in Pipili and the alleged dowry torture by ex-Minister Raghunath Mohanty to his daughter in-law are some of the glaring instances of crimes against women that continue to haunt the Patnaik regime.
The BJD rank and file also fears loss of a good measure of the party’s all-State vote base due to the present demolition of illegally-built temples in Cuttack despite the High Court’s order for this drive.
And above all, an anti-incumbency trend seems to have set in among the people against Patnaik’s thirteen long years of rule, which is particularly characterised by the dominance of bureaucracy and police.
It is apparently for all these reasons that the BJD lost three NAC elections recently, giving ample indication that Patnaik’s popularity is on the wane. And this is despite Patnaik’s whirlwind tours of the State and announcement of one populist measure after another to woo all sections of the society. Most importantly, the announcement of Re 1-a-kg rice for the poor does not appear to have had its impact and, on the other hand, has been disapproved by the middle class people for its adverse effects on the rural economy.
That Patnaik is desperate to make good the loss of any measure of his popularity is evident from his inducting young leaders such as the leading Odia film actor Anubhav Mohanty and scion of the Kalahandi royal family Arka Keshari Deo into the BJD.
Patnaik “clean image”, in fact, seems to be tainted now. As for his efforts for creating a national image for him after projecting tribal leader PA Sangma as the Presidential candidate and protesting the Centre’s move for establishment of a NCTC, it is not shaping well due to the lack of progress in bringing about a Third Front comprising likeminded parties.