Lately, pollsters have all gone haywire in their predictions mainly because the guys surveying in the field are lax and do not follow failsafe methods in a country like India, where the most complex social structure and political environment with a multi-party democracy make the task of predicting a daunting one. Constituencies are wildly heterogeneous necessitating at least 1,000 samples in each segment. If only constituencies with similar characteristics are clubbed together to frame different homogeneous populations, the sample size can be reduced and inferences will be a lot easier to draw.
To keep the error of any survey-based statistical estimation within reasonable limits and to estimate the quantum of possible error, the design, implementation and carrying out the subsequent inference have to be done with mathematical precision. The respondents do not get to know the sampling method, sample profile and techniques used to convert votes into seats.
So responses are wild and predictions go wrong. Most pollsters in India do not follow appropriate statistical theory. No wonder, most poll predictions for the just concluded Bihar elections had gone wrong.
People may have forgotten that the closest political colleagues under the stewardship of Jayprakash Narayan’s Sampurna Kranti endeavour in the early 1970s, Lalu and Nitish became sworn enemies later due to ideological mismatch. Lalu, once an immensely-popular firebrand youth leader happened to capture undivided Bihar and metamorphosed himself into an alleged ‘daylight robber’ Chief Minister.
Father of nine children, seven daughters and two sons, he forgot the woes of the masses and focused full-time on pleasures of wealth and power.
Much later, Nitish tossed Lalu out to rule the smaller Bihar. But circumstances put them together again in 2015 when Lalu had made jail his home for countless scams and alleged acts of corruption.
The eldest of Lalu and Rabri Devi’s nine children, the 43-year-old Misa Bharti, a non-practising medical doctor, contested the Lok Sabha polls in 2014 from the Pataliputra constituency causing Lalu’s long-time trusted aide and MP Ram Kripal Yadav’s defection to the BJP. Misa lost to Ram Kripal and was sent to the Rajya Sabha. Misa is married to Shailesh Kumar, a software engineer. They have two daughters.
The couple is currently being probed by the Enforcement Directorate for allegedly amassing a number of benami properties. The latest bout of trouble for Misa began after the arrest by the ED of a chartered accountant associated with a company linked to her in connection with alleged money-laundering.
Lalu’s elder son Tej Pratap, only an intermediate from some college, has been in trouble for all kinds of alleged corrupt acts. His estranged wife Aishwariya is up in arms to fix him. Now, Lalu is in jail for keeping the cattle of undivided Bihar hungry for years as he ate up all fodder with family members during his rule.
Lulu’s wife Rabri has been enormously defamed for scores of reasons which the whole world knows. She messed up the State as a headless Chief Minister openly remote-controlled by Lalu in custody.
The younger son Tejashwi Yadav, a school dropout, is director of several companies that are currently being investigated for acquiring prime land allegedly through the ‘benami’ route.
Seen by many as the RJD chief’s heir apparent, he had quit studies to make a career as a cricketer. His three-year stint in the Indian Premier League as a player for the Delhi Daredevils and then in the Jharkhand Ranji Trophy team were just insignificant and lacklustre.
He became a legislator in 2015 from Raghoupur and became Deputy Chief Minister in the Nitish Kumar Cabinet. But fortunately for him, Tejashwi’s stint has been largely free from controversy.
The RJD biggies have wanted to make the soft-spoken and articulate Tejashwi Chief Minister.
Tejashwi’s masterminding of the RJD’s marketing campaign produced excellent results. All the 75 seats contested have been won. The Congress, as an ally, could bag only 19 of the 70 seats contested, eight fewer than in 2015. The Left parties have done well.
There is a great deal of appreciation for this school dropout Tejashwi doing wonders: He never used the communal plank nor talked of caste-based reservations.
Not once did he talk of the Hindu-Muslim divide nor differentiated between them. He kept saying whoever is poor, distressed or deprived is to be supported to come up. Poverty, irrespective of religion, cast or creed, is his focus. The masses lapped up his ideals and voted for him.
Though the NDA has won; governing Bihar shall never be the same again as a hugely-powerful opposition will force the ruling establishment to walk the razor’s edge with utmost caution. That’s good news for the masses of Bihar.Odisha had two by-elections in the prestigious Baleswar Sadar and the semi-rural Tirtol in Jagatsingpur district.
The whole of Odisha knew too well right from day one that the BJD would win both. The only curiosity was about the victory margin of votes. Pollsters gave a big range because of lack of methodical study.
The predictions ranged between 5 and 25 thousand votes. The overconfident BJP loudmouths had roared ‘victory with huge margins’.
The BJD soothsayers had bluffed, as usual, a victory margin of 25,000 votes. Maybe, one or two nondescript guys had said between 10 and 15 thousand, which came correct.Modi is no doubt a winning horse, but his popularity is nowhere near that of Naveen Patnaik’s. Naveen is still the demigod for voters, and not for nothing. He has proven his intentions are noble.
To lift the poor and the deprived, utmost priorities have been set in all development programmes. Further, the feats his administration has achieved are beyond the imagination of the routine political bigwigs across India. Apart from development activities of the popular kind, the task of putting Odisha prominently in the world map has been achieved in style.
Puri, Konark and the temple town of Bhubaneswar have been transformed into enviable tourist destinations already.
Even hinterland locations across the State are getting facelifts that no other political executive had ever imagined. That Naveen is a visionary par excellence has been proven beyond doubt.