There is much speculation in political circles that Prime Minister Narendra Modi may contest from the Puri lok Sabha constituency in the 2019 general elections. There is no smoke without fire. It appeared first during the last BJP national executive meeting held in April 2017 in Bhubaneswar where some Odisha BJP leaders and national mediapersons raised the proposal. Modi reportedly evaded the question and has not responded to it thus far.
BJP president Amit Shah has been neither confirming the plan nor rejecting the same outright, when asked by the mediapersons at different times. The talk resurfaced when Raghunath Mohapatra, a stone sculptor of Puri, was given the President of India nominated Rajya Sabha seat last month when so many other eligible personalities exist in the country.
Multiple visits of the Prime Minister to Odisha point out the BJP’s political inclination towards the State. The Prime Minister had visited Rourkela in April 2015. later he visited Puri, Paradip and Bargarh during February 2016. He had visited Baleswar in June 2016, Bhubaneswar in April 2017 and Cuttack in May 2018.
Similarly, the second in command in the BJP, its President Amit Shah, has been frequenting the State. BJP’s partial success in the 2017 panchayat elections in Odisha and its victory in Tripura has inspired the party to step up its electoral efforts in the State.
Perhaps, the think-tanks of the BJP assess that the party has been reaching a saturation point in the already covered States and there is a need to explore new States like Odisha, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. These four States possess 105 lok Sabha seats out of which the BJP had bagged only six during 2014 poll.
Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are linguistically obstacle States to the BJP where the party might be planning to get benefits through alliance. Between the two States of West Bengal and Odisha, where Hindi is spoken and understood, the West Bengal has an anti-BJP State ruling party, the Trinamool Congress (TMC). Only Odisha provides more electoral scope for the BJP as the BJP was once an alliance partner for two consecutive terms with the ruling BJD. Besides, the BJP has received positive response during the last panchayat polls and the BJD, though not in the NDA, is a supporter of the BJP-ruled Union Government on many national issues, be it demonetisation or the new National Register of Citizens (NRC). The main opposition Congress is also weak here.
The BJP has declared its Assembly Mission-120 for Odisha. It might be targeting 10 MPs covertly. But to achieve these targets, the BJP needs a face to pose as an alternative to the tall man, Naveen Patnaik, who is the CM here for four consecutive terms. That is why the BJP plans to put its tallest leader, Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the electoral fray in Odisha in 2019.
The BJP has two alternate regions for the Prime Minister to contest from such as the coastal and the western Odisha. Win of Modi as MP from any seat is not a problem but a State-wide sweeping effect is a challenge.
If Modi contests from a western Odisha seat, where the BJP had won during the alliance days, the BJP could sweep the western Odisha and its adjacent areas. The Congress will suffer the disaster. In such a situation, the BJD will still continue to be the big winner by conquering the rest regions and Naveen Patnaik will become the Chief Minister either alone or in alliance with the BJP.
The relation between the BJD and the BJP will not worsen even if they do not go for a pre-poll alliance. The BJD shall support the BJP at the Centre after the poll if needed. It is a better option than the alliance arrangement between the BJP and the BJD because a pre-poll alliance will push the ticket -losers to the Congress and benefit the Congress.
Since the BJP is rejecting the western region and is planning to put Prime Minister Modi from the coastal area, it is perhaps thinking to form the State Government alone by causing devastation to the BJD’s fort. It may target Puri or Bhubaneswar or Cuttack Parliament constituency. Such a plan shall turn the BJD to an arch rival of the BJP and drive it closer towards the Congress. If the BJP’s plan fails in making a coastal sweep then the BJP will lose the BJD in Union politics.
The selection of Puri constituency in the coastal Odisha might have been done by the BJP to give it the religious -image advantage in the State and national campaign. last time, it was Varanasi, the abode of Kashi Viswanath and this time it could be lord Jagannath. He may contest from Vadodara and Puri and retain Puri.
The Puri strategy has one serious weakness. While the BJP had won in 1991, 1996,1998,1999,2009 from Varanasi Parliament Constituency, it is a stranger to Puri or the key coastal seats. The BJD has been occupying Puri Parliament seat since 1989.
When former CM JB Patnaik had invited former PM Narasihma Rao to contest from Odisha in 1990s, he had offered him a Congress fortress, Brahmapur Parliament seat, where Rao won.
In the Puri Parliamentary constituency, the BJP has won the Chilika Assembly segment in 2014. It has tasted presence in the Ranpur segment and un-tasted presence in two other Assembly constituencies. Therefore, the BJP has almost a 50-per cent presence here.
To counter the Modi’s candidature in Puri, the BJD shall have to reorganise itself. It might put a new face, its RS member Soumya Ranjan Patnayak to counter anti-incumbency, engage in media war and get better coordination with the civil society and the Congress workers. The BJD could rope in its poll pundit Prafulla Ghadai to work with Prasanna Acharya to manage poll with other young leaders. Similarly, the BJD might put Puri MP Pinaki Misra in Bhubaneswar Parliament seat to counter anti-incumbency, re-induct Puri former MP Braja Kishore Tripathy with a Rajya Sabha seat promise to manage poll. It may put Bhubaneswar MP Prasanna Patsani in the Jatni Assembly seat too with the promise of a berth in Ministry.