The Odisha Government seemingly has managed to stump out Red camp with its revamped rehab package as it ensured recording two back-to-back centuries of Naxal surrenders in 2013 and 2014. This feat propels Odisha to become the second State in the country to record such high Maoist surrenders.
The scoring by the State seems ticking well so far in 2015 as within the first 90-days over 30 Naxals including some hardcore cadres have surrendered before the State police. Consider the paradigm shift: Prior to 2013, the State could manage an average annual surrender of around 25-40 Naxals only, which even led to a rising chorus on failure of State’s rehab strategy especially when Andhra Pradesh was seeing a windfall of surrenders.
In February 2012, the State announced a revamp package to lure Maoists to the mainstream. The surrenders in that year were also at mere 34 only. It seems the new tweaking of Centre’s Naxal Rehab Package in 2013 with an announcement of monthly stipend of Rs4,000 for three years to surrendered Naxals along with State’s new provisions worked wonder when Odisha recorded as many as 100 surrenders in 2013 to become the top State with most surrenders by ultras nationally. Odisha again recorded 100 more surrenders in 2014 but finished second to Chhattisgarh.
Though officially the State police are not claiming any target for 2015, sources add that they are working aggressively to score a double ton with a clear strategy in place. As nearly three-fourth of the surrenders has come in the Koraput - Malkangiri region, by building individual Naxal as success rehab models there, the State administration plans for more desertions from the Red camp this year. It is mainly targeting women active members and tribal youths to change sides with one-time marriage assistance to the tune of Rs 25, 000, added sources.
However, the records don’t seem to be a runaway success as the surrendered cadres mostly belong to lower rank of category 2-B, even by the Government classification. Profiling of the surrendered ultras reveal that none belongs to the cadre of State/Regional/Central/Politburo member, a handful belongs to the rank of Area/Sub-Zonal commanders and most are only hardcore or active ultras with some carrying even a price tag for some heinous crimes. Moreover, very few surrendered before State police accompany with weapons and explosives unlike in Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
According to security experts at Indian Defence and Strategic Analysis (IDSA), women forms around 40 per cent of the Maoist cadre and weaning a sizeable chunk is like destabilising the ultras brick-by-brick. Trends suggest more surrenders by women cadres have a persuasive effect on male cadres. However, surrender by high ranking cadres would be very difficult given the fact that they are very senior ideologues and are deeply ingrained in Maoist ideology.
Many experts are of the view that they could only be coerced to surrender provided the strategy of depleting the rank and file in the ultras coupled with busting the hideouts, sharp arrests, neutralisation of top commanders and socio-economic uplift happen in swift tandem. However, all of this is a very time-taking exercise for States like Odisha unlike Andhra Pradesh, they explained.