No apparent free ride seems to be in sight for the BJD in the 2017 panchayat elections as many a bump that have sprouted up in between the 2014 Assembly elections and the upcoming panchayat polls have disorganised the poll ‘chemistry’ of the party to an extent which could unravel the ruling party’s solid poll arithmetic.
And when Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik was on copter-hopping across the State during the last one month, it was virtually to create the right chemistry only to insulate the BJD’s poll mathematics. After all, great man Aristophanes had once said, “To win the people, always cook them some savoury that pleases them.”
The 2015 worst drought that stirred up farmer suicides and the following colossal water crisis in 2016 summer which made the State look like a parched land appears to have shaken the electoral demography in the State. Besides, some localised tremors like Malkangiri children deaths in sequel to the 2015 infant deaths in Cuttack are also the contributing factors in disrupting the ‘demographic equilibrium’ of the BJD.
Significantly, when in principle the election outcomes are an aggregated opinion of the disaggregated social groups or sections; therefore, when issues affecting disaggregated sections in an aggregated way mount up, the chemistry does stand affected irreversibly for a political party.
In this barometer, the BJD has definitely some worries because the party is now in power from Zilla Parishads to State headquarters for a longer stint. And the party did create big speed breakers right from the Nabakalebar mess, scandals (from chit fund to sleaze) to Bijli, Sadak and Pani during the last two years. Still, the party having some traction left on the ground could well be attributed purely to the perceived doer persona (especially in formulating pro-poor schemes) of party supremo Naveen Patnaik vis-a-vis the shadow leaders in the Opposition camp. In other words, Patnaik scores in chemistry than his political opponents could do.
However, with a resurgent BJP crafting in the Modi chemistry in the Odisha rural polls via full blown ads on the NDA schemes and schemes like the cheap rice to hit the BJD’s raw nerve is a development that needs to be watched. It is because what was Indira chemistry to the Congress, the Modi chemistry is the same to the BJP.
When the BJD is entering the rural poll fray this time with many liabilities like disruption in paddy procurement, delayed distribution of input subsidy as drought assistance, slipups in Bijli, Sadak, Pani along with unrest among Anganwadi Workers and teachers, the Congress is entering with a lot of promising assets but with poor intra-party chemistry, and the BJP dives to the rural arena with recalibration of earlier pro-poor schemes (cheap rice, free lPG to PM’s new maternity scheme) only to be topped up with more tangible sops on February 1 (Budget day).
It has been the thumb rule in a democracy, especially in India, where a ruling party always wins a majority in panchayat polls unless the electoral demography strongly stands in a disequilibrium state.
While ground reports don’t show such an evident disequilibrium, the BJD’s poll mathematics in some districts does show evolving ‘in-equations’.