Issues always carry importance during elections. But the poll managers decide to pick up certain issues that can stir the minds of the voters. Issues that suit an opposition may not suit a ruling party.
looking at the 2014 campaign of BJP, Prime Minister Narendra Modi raised the twin issues of under-development and corruption. This combination of issues clicked. But the question arises whether only raising the issues moved the voters towards ModiIJ The answer is no.
There was an additional factor. It was the factor of trustworthiness of the alternative leader. People believed that Modi can deliver as an alternative leader. Therefore issues when added with an alternative leader paid dividends to BJP in 2014 general election.
A similar situation occurred in the USA. President Trump raised the issue of livelihood and physical security of the whites. He talked how the non-Caucasian and external immigrants eat the fruits of the progress of the USA and how a borderless America near Mexico is causing immigration problem or how Muslims pose a threat to the Americans. In addition to the issues, he was believed as a capable alternative leader because of his successful businessman profile. Thus there was a pro-Republican voting. Voters seldom care to examine during a poll, whether the issues raised by the political parties are true or whether they can solve the problems. It is the public perception that matters. These are the two case studies of the political parties which came to power using a certain issue-strategy which emotionally charged the voters.
Issue identification is more difficult for a ruling party in an election which is seeking another term. When the ruling party raises an issue, the opposition questions its role in not solving the issue.
The ruling party may talk about a bunch of incomplete dreams with regard to the mitigation of certain live public issues or it may talk about some external factor that blocked its path when it was trying to solve the issue.
During last Bihar election, the winning JDU-RJD alliance did not raise many issues as JDU was in power. They picked up the reservation issue from a RSS-statement and went on projecting themselves as messiahs of the OBCs and the minorities. It clicked. In UP, the SP is talking about incomplete dreams and posing as saviors of minorities and OBCs. Akhilesh Yadav attributes the reason of his failures to Center and his father. Thus he makes a good pitch for himself, hiding his failures as a CM.
In Odisha, there are many issues. It can be classified as survival issue, employment issue, infrastructure issue, SC and ST development issue, backward region development issue, corruption issue and so on. These are usual Government failure issues. But, BJD has been continuing in power in the State since 2000 and has passed the test in four successive Assembly elections. The Opposition has not remained idle during last 16 years but has been raising the governance gaps consistently, yielding no effect on voters.
The mass media of Odisha is very active in raising the failures of the State Government every day. The TV houses are diligently conducting evening talk shows against the State Government. Why there has been no effectIJ This is because Odisha is divided equally into media-accessible and non-accessible regions. The non-accessible regions have their own perception of the Government from the welfare schemes and from the local opinion leaders. The highly media accessible regions, interestingly, support the BJD. These so-called highly politicalised regions seem to have developed what is called “media-resistance” syndrome. It is like the repeated use of DDT, making the mosquitoes DDT-resistant. Has the mass media lost the public confidence in OdishaIJ
Coming to the PRI election, many pertinent issues have been raisedover last two years by the opposition. Bhubaneswar Mayor’s issue was the last attack on BJD. Time will speak about the effect of these issues on voters. But a preliminary analysis shall be a worthy attempt. Just before the PRI election, two State issues like the farmers issue and the chit fund issue were raised by some groups, led by Soumya Ranjan Patnaik. CBI raid on Baleswar BJD MP’s house also left a thread for the Opposition to target the BJD. The BJD MP defended his position by shifting the blame to the opposition BJP and evaded arrest.
The chit fund victims were seen going to MlAs to include their names in the small-investors list of the Commission. None of the protest movement gave an open State call to boycott BJD. So the effect got diluted. The Mayor issue, being an UlB issue, did not have much relevance to rural voters. In the meanwhile, the Tarava issue of Dhenkanal is catching momentum. It might help BJP in Dhenkanal, locally.
BJP also made the issue of inefficiency of State Government in distributing the last crop insurance money to the people and continued to propagate that the BJD Government is hijacking Central schemes. Will that give any effectIJ
On the other hand, the BJD has been aware of its failures in governance. It first started with the Biju centenary celebration to cover up its failures and create a feel-good climate. But that strategy did not work longer for grassroots. After the IOCl inauguration at Paradip, BJD was seen scared of the progress of the BJP and the rise of Dharmendra Pradhan. INC was doing big padayatras to raise its status.
Soon leadership problems occurred in the twin opposition camps. Perhaps at this time, BJD pushed the Mahandi issue. It affected both the opposition parties. Bijay Mohapatra took a different stand from BJP and got distanced from the party. In Congress family, the ClP and organizational head broke apart. BJD continued to paddle the Mahandi issue. BJD, perhaps, decided to adopt a two- pronged strategy on its relation with the BJP, keeping the Union Government happy on the one hand and attacking the State unit and the Odisha face of BJP Dharmendrababu on the other. Thus BJD went on supporting the two major drives of the Union Government such as the GST Bill and the demonitisation. later, in the Paradip Port issue, the State Government swiftly arrested the crime accused in the murder case of the manager of a shipping –vendor. As a result, Naveen Patnaik received praise from the Central BJP Ministers. Finance Minister Arun Jaitely patted the State Government for growth rate of the State and its favourable industrial climate in the Make-in-Odisha conclave.
The Mahanadi issue was kept alive by the BJD to create an anti-BJP environment in the State and create devastation in the opposition camps. It is true that the Mahanadi issue is not discussed as a poll issue in Panchayats. But BJP choose to bring Raman Singh to Odisha poll scene to keep it afloat.