A major part of the political history of Odisha in post-Independence India is replete with experiments with coalition Government. During this period, the voter has often opted for a regional party for the State Assembly and opted for a national party for the Union Parliament. Way before the Ayaram and Gayaram days in Haryana and elsewhere, Odisha was quite used to political horse-trading. However, there has been stability from around 1977 onwards. The exception is for the period 2000 to 2009 when the BJD had to align with the BJP.
The voting pattern has demonstrated that when Assembly and Parliament elections are held at the same time, there is a tendency for the voter to vote for the same party, both for the State and the Centre. Past trend of the voter choosing a regional party at the State level and a national party for the Union Parliament has undergone a change.
A recent study by the IDFC throws up interesting indicators. The analysis indicates that in six States (Odisha, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh) had 77 per cent of the constituencies throwing up winners coming from the same political party. The trend appears to be intensifying from around year 2000. In other words, the voter is selecting the same party both for the Assembly and the Parliament elections, held simultaneously. The experience of Odisha from 2000 onwards endorses this finding.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently commented on the persistent demand of electioneering in various State elections leaving limited time for good governance. The Prime Minister talked of causing reforms of India’s electoral cycle to preferably hold simultaneous elections to the State legislatures and to the Parliament.
If this reform does come into existence, the voting behaviour and pattern in a simultaneous election may cause ripples in the electoral system. The trend hitherto has been a vote in favour of the regional party, both for the Assembly and for the Parliament. A regional party has no hope of ever forming of a Government by itself at the Centre. It has to join some form of coalition or other arrangement. But if there is anti-incumbency factor and the voter for several other reasons turns in favour of a national party for the Parliament, a sizeable chunk of voters for the Assembly seats will also shift in favour of that national party. The complaints against the Centre of its continued neglect of the interests of the State have not been having as much of an impact as it used to a few years ago. The majority party in the lok Sabha has formed the Government at the Centre but has continued with the framework of the NDA. A nonaligned and equidistant party like the BJD is not taken to be a formal member of the coalition structure. As a regional party, it appears to be complaining against the Central Government irrespective of the party in power. The Centre is also demonstrating reasonable flexibility in making the Federal structure meaningful.
The ruling party in Odisha being a regional one might have the pendulum fully in its favour as in the 2014 results, or there may be a trend towards voting for the national party for the Central Government and voting for a regional party with reduced enthusiasm. The behaviour pattern of voters cannot be accurately predicted, especially in a society in transition such as ours.
This unpredictability in the voters’ behaviour would be a matter of concern both to the political party and the voters in general. That explains why aggressive publicity is the order of the day and there is every attempt to project that there is development at a fast pace. There are attempts to make the voters believe that Odisha’s fate has changed for the better. If the change was well-accepted, there would be no need to indulge in aggressive propaganda as a strategy.
The BJP is now eyeing different States having consolidated its position in the Centre. In its attempts to gain a better foothold in the States, where its presence is not felt in a dominant manner, it is bound to evolve electoral mechanics and strategy to woo the voter towards voting for the same party both for the Assembly and for the Parliament. This possibility is a red herring by itself for the party ruling with dominance with scant regard for political institutions. The conduct of the BJP is also indicative of adoption of a strategy of persuading the voter to opt for one party both for the State and the Centre. Our regional parties are not like the DMK or the AIDMK. The South has its own compulsions to retain its identity and not to be overshadowed by what it construes as the northern Indian parties. A BJD-BJP electoral alliance is a matter of history. There is an undercurrent of disenchantment in the BJP arising out of the abrupt ending of the decade-old coalition. The aspirations of the BJP are understandable. Their actions and strategies also indicate an attempt to persuade voters to vote for the BJP both at the Centre and in the State.
But for any change in the pattern of voting has to have the backing of the youth power. Numerically, the youth is a sizeable section of the voters. The BJP is, therefore, targeting the younger sections with allurements of a new identity through neo-nationalism and other factors. This trend is not being appropriately tackled by the regional party, which, of late, is also afflicted by the allegations emerging out of chit fund and other scams. There would, thus, be a greater emphasis luring the youths towards a national party so as to eat into the vote bank of a regional party. This is bound to bring in anxious and active days for a regional party, which has no political philosophy of its own as such but talks in general about the advancement of the State. This is an hour for the youth power to undergo an acid test. It must make a conscious reasoned choice and not to be carried away with slogans and pamphlets. The youths need to be guided in this sphere of opinion-making and effectuating the opinion into electoral politics. This new task before the youths is a difficult and demanding one. The elder generation must engage itself in the interest of the youth power. Youths must necessarily interact with the elders causing any basic and structural changes that they dream of. We have to be alert before they announce that they have dreams of their own and they require necessary help and guidance to fulfil their dreams. In this social endeavour, all sections of the society have a stake. And, this definitely concerns us all!
(The writer, a Senior Advocate, is a former All India Service officer, a former diplomat, a former editor, a former President of Orissa High Court Bar Association and a former Advocate General of Odisha. jayantdas@hotmail.com)