Culturally, south Odisha consists of Malkangiri, Nabarangpur, Koraput, Rayagada, Gajapati and Ganjam districts. Malkanagri has two Assembly constituencies, Malkanagiri (ST) and Chitrakonda (ST).
In the 2014 Assembly elections, Malkanagiri (ST) seat was won by the BJD with 2.6 per cent votes, followed by the INCwith 30.35 per cent and the BJP with 24.74 per cent votes. In the Chitrakonda (ST), the BJD won with 42.3 per cent votes, followed by the INC with 20.5 per cent and the BJP with 15 per cent. Each constituency has one NAC each.
In Malakanagiri, the BJD won eight Zilla Parishad (ZP) zones in the 2012 PRI polls, leaving the INC with six and the BJP with one; thus enabling the BJD to form the ZP body. In Malkanagiri Assembly segment, BJD had won four, Congress three and BJP one ZP seat whereas in Chitrakonda Assembly constituency, BJD and Congress had won four ZP seats each. There is strong Congress presence in the district. The Japanese Encephalitis (JE) child death issue might be a setback for the BJD and a gain for the INC, which could help the latter to snatch away the district ZP body from the BJD. Congress infighting may not have much impact in the district as former MP Pradeep Majhi has unified the district Congress on the JE issue. Maoist role also may help the Congress.
Nabarangpur has four Assembly constituencies. In 2014, Umarkote (ST) seat was won by BJD with 37 per cent votes, followed by INC with 29.4 per cent and BJP with15.7 per cent. The Jharigarm (ST) seat was won by BJD with 41.99 per cent votes, followed by INC with 34.8 per cent and BJP with 9 per cent. Adjacent Nabarngpur (ST) seat was also won by BJD with 44.3 per cent votes, followed by INC with 37.8 per cent and BJP with 7.8 per cent votes. But Dabugam (ST) seat was won by INC with 41.7 per cent votes, followed by INC with 37.68 per cent and BJP with 7per cent votes. Unlike Malkanagiri and Koraput, the district saw a BJD swing of voters in the 2014 Assembly polls.
Jharigan and Dabugaon are fully rural Assembly seats whereas the other two have one UlB each. During the 2012 PRI polls, BJD had own 20 ZP Zones, followed by INC with five and BJP with one Zone, thus empowering BJD to form the district level ZP body where the total ZP zones are 26. This time BJD is likely to form the district body, though INC is expected to improve with addition of a few seats to its tally due to Pradip Majhi’s recent activism.
Koraput district has five Assembly constituencies. In 2014 Assembly poll, laxmipur(ST) seat was won by INC with 44.5% votes, followed by BJD with 25.8 per cent and BJP with 8 per cent. Similarly, Kotpad(ST) seat was won by INC with 48 per cent votes, followed by BJD with 26.88 per cent and BJP with 14 per cent. Adjacent Koraput(SC) seat was also won by INC with 40.6 per cent votes, followed by BJD with 36.6 per cent and BJP with 10.96 per cent. Jaypore (general) seat was won by INC with 44.6 per cent votes, followed by BJD with 38.9 per cent and BJP with 9.8 per cent. In Pottangi (ST) Assembly seat, BJD won with 38.1 per cent votes, followed by INC with 29.3 per cent and BJP with 7.6 per cent. While the 2014 lok Sabha election was won by BJD but Congress dominated the Assembly seats. The disastrous defeat of Hema Gamang, wife of Congress former CM Giridhar Gamang, from laxmipur Assembly seat with a BJD ticket, indicated that the voters did not change sides with the leader.
laxmipur and Potangi Assembly areas are fully rural while others have UlBs. During 2012 PRI polls, both BJD and INC had won 14 ZP zones each, leaving Independent (Narayanpatna Chasi Mulia Adivasi Sangha) with one zone. There are 29 ZP Zones in the district. BJD had formed the ZP body in 2012 with the support of one Independent winner. But the situation in the district has changed after 2014 Assembly election. Congress is in favorable position now to form the ZP body as it has four MlAs out of five. But Congress internal feud is a risk factor, which could be an advantage for the BJD. BJP, though has Giridhar Gamang with it now, it will have not much vote gains, as was seen in case of Assembly poll result of his BJD- defected wife. Maoists are a factor here too.
Rayagada district has three Assembly constituencies. In 2014, Rayagada(ST) seat was won by BJD with 41.45 per cent votes, followed by INC with 36.5 per cent and BJP with 10.3 per cent votes. Similarly, Gunpur(ST) seat was won by BJD too with 41.6 per cent votes, followed by INC with 36.4 per cent and BJP with 10.9 per cent votes. Bisamcuttack(ST) seat was also won by BJD with 43.7 per cent votes, followed by INC with 26.1 per cent and BJP with 11 per cent votes. In Rayagada district, Bissam Cuttack is a fully rural Assembly constituency whereas the other two have UlBs. Out of total 19 ZP Zones of the district, BJD had own 11, followed by INC with seven and Independent with one Zone, thus empowering BJD to form the district ZP body in 2012. This time BJD is likely to form the district body, though BJP is likely to improve its performance. Congress infighting shall not have any effect in the district and much depends on party’s candidate selection.
Gajapati district has two Assembly constituencies. In the 2014 Assembly polls, Mohana (ST) seat was won by BJD with 29.9 per cent votes, followed by INC with 29.8 per cent and BJP with 27.5 per cent. But Paralkhemundi Assembly seat was won by INC with 45.2 per cent votes, followed by BJD with 44 per cent and BJP with 5 per cent. Mohana Assembly constituency was perhaps the only seat in Odisha where Congress, BJP and BJD had equal foothold among the voters. But it is a fully rural Assembly constituency. Out of total 14 ZP Zones of the district, BJD had own seven, followed by INC with four and BJP with three Zones , thus helping the BJD to form the district ZP body in 2012. But it is difficult to predict the result this time.
Ganjam district is known as CM’s home constituency district and the top most priority district of the BJD. It is has 13 Assembly constituencies such as Khalikote (SC), Chhatrapur (SC), Gopalpur, Berhampur, Samkhemundi, Chikiti, Digapahandi, Aska Hinjili, Kabisuryanagar, Polasara,Surada and Bhanjanagar. Except Brahmapur and Sana Khemundi, where the Congress lost with a small margin, the rest constituencies witnessed wide gaps between BJD and its competitors. In Gopalpur and Chatrapur, BJP and CPI were in second position respectively.
Except Brahmapur constituency, all are rural constituencies having one or more UlB each. Out of 69 ZP Zones of the district, BJD had own 60, followed by INC with four and BJP with two, CPI with two and CPM with one ZP Zone , leading to formation of district ZP body by BJD in the 2012 polls. There is no visible obstruction to prevent BJD from occupying the district body in 2017 again. Former Samkhemundi MlA’s arrest in criminal cases and his absence from rural poll scene might weaken Congress’ prospects in Samkhemundi and Brahmapur while BJP’s increased focus might improve its tally.