Ukraine war: India aligns to the changing trend
Dr Kailash Chandra Mishra is a globetrotting professor emeritus, an acclaimed management guru and a great economic advisor to many nations. His observations on the current Russia-Ukraine war are quite stimulating. In an interview to The Pioneer, Dr Mishra lays bare an eye-opening account of the Russia-Ukraine war to Sugyan Choudhury from the Indian perspective.
How does Russia reason out its war with Ukraine?
Lewis Carroll’s “Alice's Adventures in Wonderland” used the King to state “Begin at the beginning and go on till you come to the end; then stop.” The story begins 100 years back in 1922. The violent revolution marked the end of the Romanov dynasty and centuries of Russian imperial rule. During the Russian Revolution, the Bolsheviks, led by leftist revolutionary Vladimir Lenin, seized power and destroyed the tradition of Czarist rule. The USSR lasted till 1991 when Mikhail Gorbachev’s Perestroika or restructuring and Glasnost or openness resulted in dissolution of USSR to 15 independent countries Estonia, Latavia, Lithonia, Kazakistan, Kirgizstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, Belarus, Ukraine and Russia. First three countries joined the USA-led NATO and rest 12 formed Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Russia still retained 70% of USSR and owned entire nuclear arsenal. From 2000, Vladimir Putin took over from Boris Yeltsin as President. In first eight years, he consolidated Russia in silence, handed over power of President for four years to Dmitry Medvedev and, from 2012, continues as the President of Russia. Putin never liked Estonia, Latvia and Lithonia joining NATO whose underlying purpose is to keep Russia under check. When Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a former comedian, took over as President of Ukraine in 2019, he wanted to join EU with intention to join NATO as next step. He had Russia’s annexation of Crimea, an erstwhile Ukraine territory, in mind. Russia annexed Crimea to improve its naval power. Arctic Ocean in north is unsuitable for naval movement as it is thickly ice-clad. Ukraine was a hindrance for Russia’s access to Black Sea and through that to East Mediterranean and further to North Atlantic Ocean. Annexing Crimea in 2014 and quickly creating a Crimean Bridge gave naval advantage to Russia. Though except Cuba, nobody recognised Russia’s conquest of Crimea, nobody also resisted excepting sanctions on Russia by USA and Western countries. G8 countries removed Russia to become G7 consisting of Britain, France, Italy, Germany, USA, Canada and Japan.
Threatened by Zelenskyy’s overtures to NATO, Russia, or more precisely Putin, decided to find alibi to attack Ukraine. USA was trapped in its own diplomacy. It had inserted Article 7 to UNO Charter. Article 7 says no country can attack and annex any other country with a proviso that if any territory is oppressed and seek another country’s help to rescue or liberate it from oppression, the third-party country can intervene. This is how USA had intervened in Vietnam, Korea, Iraq, Libya, Kenya, Syria and Egypt, etc. Now obstinate Putin declared Luhansk and Donetsk, two regions of Ukraine in East adjacent to Russia, as independent countries. Then, Russia had brazen reason to have what is known as limited military action to liberate the so-called oppressed territories of Ukraine. Putin waited for Beijing Olympic to close on February 20. He declared Luhansk and Donetsk as independent countries on February 21. Their stage-managed heads of state sent letters to Putin on February 22 to intervene to liberate them; and on February 23, Putin started limited military action as per Article 7.
How Indians perceive the war from a global perspective?
The West and the USA imposed more stringent sanctions on Russia. European Union countries were saddled with Ukrainian refugees in herds. International collaboration sought for humanitarian aid to Ukraine, making sanctions against Russia stringent and military assistance to Ukraine. India responded by providing humanitarian assistance to Ukraine but remained actively neutral in other two collaborations. China seized the opportunity as always to create a war situation to annex Taiwan citing One China Policy. In a way, China’s nuisance at India’s border got little lax though expectation was complete holiday. Western diplomacy was exposed for its subtle appeasement of Russia to get fossil resources so critical for them. Ukraine as owner of Chernobyl-like nuclear plants had already tested nuclear proliferation even in peace times. Now war in the hinterland brought to fore almost certain nuclear proliferation even without nuclear bombing. NATO has power as per its Article 5 that if any third-party attacks any NATO member-nation, it will be treated as attack on all NATO nations. That is why Russia was in haste and why Ukraine wanted NATO membership process to start. Ukraine plays victim card astutely. But Russia has cyber attack supremacy. Western countries including USA never wanted to join the war directly, but USA has to increase its Defence budget to assist Ukraine in ammunitions, naval backup and missile defence. The war has got extended immortality due to Russia’s inherent staying and firepower in one hand and Ukraine’s strategic international defence pipeline on the other. Meanwhile, India has been diplomatic enough to get right of safe passage for its citizen students studying in Ukraine mostly for medical degrees.
How the war ultimately plans out for India?
The Ukraine war has exposed vulnerability of the world to fossil fuel industry even more than food chain. The USA sanctions on Russia or Iran have shown if countries are made unstable like Iran, more danger is invited for world peace. Many countries are in an uneasy state due to threat of breakup. There is a high degree of imbalance in food production and distribution. EU is tending to be a set of socialist countries due to resource rationing and restructuring of lifestyle needs. World is poised to see more regional blocks and alliances. The triple planetary crisis refers to the three main interlinked issues that humanity currently faces: climate change, pollution and biodiversity loss. War only accentuates them. Space privatisation has arrived and military implications are enormous. World is already puzzled by South China Sea claim of China far beyond international laws of sea. Space occupation issues are haunting humanity. High tech revolution looks faster than human absorption capacity. It’s time to look after Africa for investment not exploitation, a new challenge to capitalist West. Korea War, Middle East war, Arctic Settlement, US dollar dominance and inflation in USA are giving new experience to easy going countries who are forced to find creative solution to combat world issues. All futurists have a global consensus that situations conspire in the world to precipitate the rise of India whatever may be its political economics. The geopolitical advantage for India is enormous coupled with its current stage of population dividend. Ukraine War has exhibited this opportunity basket for India despite all internal issues.
What may be the conclusion for India?
India aligns to the changing trend; appropriating the centre of power;
putting the dominance of the rest to an end; Ukraine war lets the tiger roar forever.