Odisha is in for a longer haul of hotter climes. With April turning hottest ever, May and June would also be hotter this year, if one goes by the recent forecast made by the IMD Pune. Since 2016 has been the year succeeding the El Niño year, heat wave is set to swamp Odisha this year in a big way, reveals an IMD Pune study. The study has included Odisha in the Core Heat Wave (CHW) area in India.
More so, the warmer Bay of Bengal this year looks to be acting as a force multiplier of the heat wave coming from north-western and central India. The fallout: the sea wind lacks the usual normal velocity and moisture. And, the reason behind Bhubaneswar turning the new Tatlagarh (hottest) in Odisha could be due to maximum ‘insolation’ following a cloudless sky, as shown in an analysis of heat waves in India by the IMD.
What is insolationIJ It is the heat radiation of the Sun that reaches the Earth’s atmosphere and surface. Though most of the heat is absorbed, some absorbed heat radiation reaches as diffused radiation. And, in the month of April, this diffused solar radiant exposure received by Bhubaneswar is higher at over 8.6 MJm (Joulesmetre) compared to around 7 MJm in interior Odisha, finds out the IMD study on Insolation in India.
However, the present spell of severe heat wave could lapse to heat wave soon because the life span of a severe heat wave (currently gripping coastal Odisha) is mere five days against 15 days for heat wave, reveals the study. But it needs to be remembered that heat waves come in spells; so, it could strike the State again.
The study shows Odisha on an average received a high of over 10 spells of heat waves in May against a mere one and four in April and June, respectively. This indicates the likelihood of a blistering May this year.
The study shows that historically, heat wave in the succeeding year of the El Nino year inflicts the maximum loss of human lives in India, including Odisha. For instance, in the month of May in the year 1998, Odisha had recorded the maximum sunstroke deaths in coastal areas and, incidentally, it was the following year of 1997 El Nino year.
However, the silver lining it holds is the Monsoon 2016 would be normal as two vital indicators -- El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) factor and Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI) or commonly known as the Indian Nino -- hold some promise. While it is forecast that ENSO conditions will turn neutral in May and June), at the same time the forecast indicates that the current negative DMI will turn neutral by May and turn positive since then till July. But the hiccup is the probability of Indian Nino turning neutral by August and negative again in the months of September and October looms large, which could affect the rainfall during the last leg of the 2016 monsoon, observe IMD experts.