The north and central Odisha region comprises Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar, Angul, Dhenkanal, Boudh and Kandhamal districts. There is presence of tribals in the region. Except Boudh and Kandhamal, the rest is a mineral area.
Mayurbhanj district has nine Assembly constituencies. After Ganjam, it is the second biggest Assembly and ZP constituency district of Odisha This is a district, where there are five players in 2014 Assembly poll viz BJD, JMM, BJP, INC and SUCI. 2014 election witnessed the capture of lS seat and all Assembly seats by BJD. BJP was in second position in five Assembly constituencies such as Rairangpur(ST),
Bangiriposhi(ST), Karanjia(ST), Udala(ST), Morada(ST),Baripada(ST) . SUCI was in 2nd position in Jashipur(ST), JMM was in 2nd position in Sarskana(ST) and INC was in second position in Badasahi(SC) seat. The Assembly result showed downfall of JMM and INC in the district and the rise of BJD and BJP. SUCI is present in one Assembly area only. Though the defection of Sudam Marandi- faction of JMM to BJD in 2014 weakened the JMM, still JMM has strength to disturb the poll equation if it forms alliance with either BJP or INC. BJP might as well gain if it works strategically.
Except Baripada, Udala, Karanjia and Rairangpur which have one UlB each apart from rural areas, the rest Assembly constituencies are fully rural ones. Out of 50 ZP Zones of the district, the BJD had won 36 in 2012 PRI polls, occupying the ZP body, leaving INC with two, NCP with one, JMM with nine and Independents with two Zones. BJD is likely to form the ZP body in 2017. But BJP will be the main rival of BJD in the ZP polls as JMM’s one faction and NCP went to BJD after 2014 and Congress became weak. If INC or BJP forms alliance with JMM, then BJD will be at risk in 2017.
The suspended BJD MP Ram Chandra Hansdah, who is accused of involving in chit fund scam, could be a setback for BJD. If he does not support BJD internally, then BJD will see failure. If there is an INC-JMM alliance, it will weaken both BJD and BJP. Similarly, a JMM-BJP alliance will help them to take many ZP seats, even enabling them to form the district ZP body in 2017.
Keonjhar district has six Assembly constituencies, out of which Telkoi(ST), Ghasipura, Anadapur(SC), Patna(ST) and Keonjhar(ST) went to BJD whereas Champua went to Independent in 2014 Assembly poll. BJD did also occupy the lS seat. In Patna, Ghasipura and Keonjhar Assembly constituencies, BJP was in second position while Congress was in second position in Telkoi and Anandapur. In Champua, another Independent was in second position. later, BJD co-opted the winning Independent candidate of Champua non- officially.
Except Anadapur and Kenojhar, the rest four are fully rural Assembly constituencies. Out of 15 ZP zones of Keonjhar, the BJD had won 13 zones in 2012 PRI polls, occupying the ZP body, leaving INC with one and Independent with one seat. BJP was wiped out. There is no reason why BJD will not occupy the district ZP body in 2017. But there are BJD intra-party conflicts in some constituencies and it will create problems for BJD if BJP or Congress take benefit out of the factor. Similarly, one has to see if the Independent MlA of Champua will put up Independent ZP candidate or support any party. He is a potential factor in disturbing poll equation in the district.
Angul district has five Assembly constituencies all of which went to BJD in 2014 Assembly poll. In Pallahara and Talcher, the BJP was in second position whereas INC was in second position in Athamalick, Angul and Chhendipada(SC) constituencies.
Except Angul, Talcher and Athamalick where there are UlBs , the rest are fully rural Assembly constituencies. Out of 28 ZP zones of Angul district, the BJD had won 21 zones in 2012 PRI polls, occupying the ZP body, leaving INC with three and Independent and BJP with 2 ZP zones each. BJD is likely to occupy the ZP body in 2017. One has to see if BJP improves in Pallalahara and Talcher constituencies as it is
the home area of Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan.
Dhenkanal district has four Assembly constituencies such as Dhenkanal, Hindol(SC), Kamakhyanagar and Parjanaga. BJD won in four seats in 2014 Assembly poll. BJP was in second position in Dhenkanal, Parjanga and Hindol whereas INC was in second position in Kamakhyanagar. BJD also took the Dhenkanal lS seat in 2014.
Parjanga and Hindol are fully rural constituencies. Out of 27 ZP zones of Dhenkanal, the BJD had won 25 ZP zones in 2012, occupying the ZP body, leaving INC and BJP with just one seat each. Though ZP numbers of BJP might increase this time in Dhenkanal and Parajanga, BJD is most likely to form the ZP body in the district unless the BJD dissidents are not pacified. Naveen Nanda, former BJD MlA, who was denied ticket in 2014 Assembly poll from BJD, may play a crucial role in Dhenkanal.
Boudh is a small district. It has two Assembly constituencies such as Boudh and Kantamal. BJD had won both constituencies in 2014 Assembly poll with comfortable margin from INC. BJP had no presence here. Boudh has one NAC , along with the rural areas whereas Kantamal is a fully rural constituency .Out of nine ZP zones in Boudh district, the BJD had won five in 2012, occupying the ZP body, leaving INC with three and Independent with one ZP zone. BJD is likely to re-occupy the district ZP body in 2017 as BJD consolidated the district after 2014 Assembly poll.
Kandhamal district has three Assembly constituencies such as Baliguda(ST), G Udyagiri(ST) and Phulbani(ST) and Balikuda-Erasama. In 2014 Assembly Poll, INC had won from G Uadayagiri whereas BJD won in the rest two constituencies. INC was in close- second position in Baliguda whereas BJD was in second position in Udayagiri and BJP was in second position in Phulbani. The lS MP also belongs to BJD. Baliguda is a fully rural constituency whereas the other two have one NAC each. Out of 18 ZP zones of Kandhamal district , the INC had won 8 in 2012 PRI polls ,occupying the ZP body, leaving BJD with seven and BJP with three seats. It is difficult to say who will occupy the ZP body at the district level. INC and BJP have mobilised the tribals against the Gumudumaha police firing incident of July 2016 in Baliguda, where five innocent tribals died. Besides, there is presence of a tribal-social association here whose role in PRI poll is also a factor for success of other parties. On the other hand, the recent conflict in Congress might affect its poll prospects at ZP level in Udayagiri. Similarly, there is also BJP infighting since last 2014 Assembly election which shall affect the party if not settled at the constituency level.