With the joining of firebrand tribal leader, Biramitrapur MLA George Tirkey in the Congress, the party will definitely be a gainer in the 2019 elections and at the same time it may foment trouble for Sundargarh BJP MP and Union Minister Jual Oram, feel political pundits here.
Taking the present political scenario and the reasons behind the victory of Oram in 2014 into consideration, such an opinion is formed.
Though Oram is a four-time MP of Sundargarh, but for the first time he won in 2014 with a thin margin without any alliance. Prior to that in 1998, 2000 and 2004, he had won when BJP and BJD had alliance. Contesting for the first time without alliance, he had lost in 2009.
Despite the Modi wave, he had managed to win with a thin margin of 18,000 odd votes defeating BJD candidate Dilip Tirkey. Most interestingly, out of seven Assembly segments under the Sundargarh Parliament constituency, Oram was either in the second or third position in five segments, including his home turf Bonai. Only due to the wide leading of 20,000 odd votes in Rourkela segment that he won the last election.
It was also known to all that as Dilip Ray is a popular leader in Rourkela and was contesting in BJP ticket from there, it was a blessing for Oram ultimately. Of course, after winning, Oram had also confessed that it was Ray’s support that helped him.
But now the situation has changed for Oram. First of all, his popularity graph is getting down due to his poor performance and odd statements. For this, he had been in dock on many occasions. Secondly, though he the Union Tribal Affairs Minister, but the fate of the tribals in his home district has not improved. This is just the tip of an iceberg if we consider the situation in all India level.
The other odd factor for him is Ray who is not comfortable in the BJP and has embarrassed the top brass over his criticism of the Central Government for delay in carrying out two important projects promised by the Prime Minister before 2014 election for Rourkela such as the Brahmani bridge and IGH upgradation to a MCH. Besides, there is every possibility for the disgruntled Ray not to contest the 2019 election. Rather, if needed, he may be an instrument for party’s debacle in the district.
At a time when Oram is already on the back foot, saddled as he is with many negative factors, tribal icon George Tirkey has joined Congress. This will definitely multiply the problems for Oram as tribal votes could be polarised.
According to sources, Tirkey has joined the Congress under a condition that he gets a ticket for the Sundargarh Parliamentary seat in 2019. Besides, in Sundargarh, the Congress has definitely certain pocket votes for which in 2014, despite the Modi wave and anti Congress wave, its candidate Hemananda Biswal had got 2,69,335 votes while Oram had got 3,40,508 votes. Tirkey has definitely a good rapport in many segments of the district for which he is not only popular but also for last two elections he is being repeatedly sent to Assembly without any brand, as an Independent candidate.
Though he is popular in Biramitrapur, he has also popularity in Raghunathpalli and Rajgangpur segment as a labour leader. It may be noted here that in 2004, Tirkey had fetched a good number of votes contesting Lok Sabha election as an Independent candidate.
So, if Tirkey manages to bag pocket votes of Congress, his own and anti- Oram votes, then definitely it would be an easy sailing for him vis-Ã -vis Oram in 2019. On the other side, Oram who had won last time with the support of Rourkela and Biramitrapur voters, would not get the same advantage in 2019 as Biramitrapur is Tirkey’s home turf where he is very popular and in Rourkela, Oram can’t expect the support of Ray as he had in 2014.