Movies are an expression of the real society in which we reside. That is why the movie ‘Contagion’ and COVID-19 scenario across the world are so pertinently and peculiarly similar. The novel corona virus was first identified in Wuhan in China in 2019 and was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as on March 11, 2020.
Amid the chaos and uncertainty that prevails today, let us look at the two great economies of our times, China and India, with almost equal population and yet when one is recovering speedily, the other still struggles with the pandemic. Unlike the Chinese economy, the Indian economy is not so equipped to fight and get away with the serious COVID-19 due to several bottlenecks like poor healthcare infrastructure, prevalence of blind beliefs and superstitions, lack of awareness among the people (though thanks to the mobile phones its less now), institutional support to track and help each and every citizen and above all, the panic over the lockdown and the fear of getting dead with hunger rather than the virus.
In line with the neoclassical growth models which highlighted on the importance of technological advancement as a fuel for the growth process, the Chinese economy no doubt adhered to the same yet with a spotlight on the socialist market economy. When it comes to the Chinese people the Government has always focused for their betterment – a truly communist mindset.
The Indian subcontinent which has various States and UTs is the largest democracy in the world with each State having its own resource endowments and potential threats. Of late, the Governments (be it in the Centre or the State) have been trying to reduce the inequality by various policy initiatives. Here in India, growth is no longer the big question but distribution is. However, there is a lot which has to be done for reducing the inequality gap or to ascertain distributional justice.
If we look back to the 2008 global financial crisis, both India and China were able to float safe due to the fiscal austerity measures and fiscal strength respectively. Now if we look at the present COVID-19 pandemic, China was the epicenter of the virus, went for a lockdown, virus spread globally and now China has recovered. Various advanced nations like USA, UK, and Italy etc. are still going through the chaos. China is now equipped to help itself and offer a helping hand to the rest of the world; be it as a saviour or a game changer.
However, India is still struggling to get rid of the crisis.
A lot has been debated about the biological weapon in the form of Coronavirus being used by China. However, if or not it is a weapon of mass destruction, the bigger issue at hand is how to ensure a normal situation during and after the lockdown? Further, the vaccine or any medications for the same needs some transmission time in terms of production, allied issues of procurement and distribution.
Unlike the pandemic board games which are based on cooperative game theory, where there are some four diseases, two to four players and the task is to find four cures without losing the game; here in real life, it’s only one Coronavirus which can affect anyone anytime without doing anything. The task is to stay safe from the virus spread. The two players can be seen as a vector of variables. The first player comprising the Government officials, doctors, nurses, medical staff, policemen, community helpers, the service providers and anyone under the essential services; the second player comprising civilians starting from daily wage earners, manual laborers, children, old aged persons, teachers, students, youth and anyone not in the essential services. The payoffs in this case could be seen as a decline in the number of COVID-19 positive cases; a decline in the number of deaths; a cure (gradually if not immediately) and a slow yet gradual economic recovery.
The whole issue is about coordination at multiple levels (international, national, State, local, regional and community). The time will only show how this coordination and cooperation will reflect upon ending the pandemic. As of now, we need to follow the safety instructions of staying at home, keeping our needs to the minimum, covering our mouth and nose while going out, maintaining our hygiene and of course washing our hands properly. Stay safe and stay healthy.
(Dr Mishra is Assistant Professor at the Department of Analytical & Applied Economics, Utkal University, Bhubaneswar)