With the global temperature set to rise by between 2 and 6 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century, the number of extreme weather events would increase substantially, eminent climatologist Prof Uma Charan Mohanty warned on Sunday.
“The temperature, which rose by a small margin of 0.7 degree C in the previous 150 years, is set to go up by 2 degrees at the present level of activities leading to emission of greenhouse gases. If it is not controlled, it could rise by 6 degrees during the same period,” Prof Mohanty, Emeritus Professor at the School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences, IIT, Bhubaneswar, said while addressing a conference on ‘Global Warming, Sea level Rise and livelihood Adaptation Strategies along the East Coast of India’ jointly organised by the SOA University and the Kwantlen Polytechnic University, Vancouver, Canada.
Prof Mohanty said the rise in temperature would cause an 80 per cent to 90 per cent increase in the number of intense category four and five cyclones though the number of tropical cyclones would remain the same or would even register a decrease. “We would also witness heavy concentrated rains or dry spells leading to droughts,” he said.
The inaugural session was also addressed by Dr AK Patnaik, Project Director, Integrated Coastal Zone Management Project (ICZMP), Prof PK Jena, former Director General, CSIR, Dr SC Sahu, Director, Indian Meteorological Department, Bhubaneswar and Prof PK Sahu, Dean, Faculty of Engineering, SOA University.
Pointing out that the sea level has risen by 20 cm between 1900 and 2000, Prof Mohanty said it is expected to rise between 52 cm and 98 cm during the current century.
“If the sea level rises by nearly one metre, it will have severe impact in Bangladesh and the east coast of India, including Odisha, substantially affecting the low lying areas and river mouths. The impact would not be similar on the Odisha coast as it will be different depending on the location of the coast,” he said.
“In case a Super Cyclone strikes Odisha, the sea surge at Gopalpur in Ganjam district could be of 2 to 3 metre high while Chandipur in Baleswar district could witness waves of 5 to 7 metre-height. This means you could not have a uniform strategy for the entire coast of Odisha which has to be based on much observation and planning,” Prof Mohanty said.
Asia, he pointed out, would be the worst victim of global warming because of its long coastlines and the developing nature of its nations.
Urging institutions to focus their attention on complex issues like climate change, Prof Mohanty said adaptation would be the best practice to cope with the emerging situations in future.
Describing climate change as very complex, Dr Sahu said the drought situation prevailing in Odisha at present was caused by a78-per cent deficit rainfall in the month of October. The current year is also hotter comparable to 2009 when the average temperature was found to be 34 degrees C.
Heat wave days in Odisha have also increased since 1998 when more than 2,000 people died in the intense summer heat, but precautionary measures since adopted by the administration have helped check such fatalities, he said.
Dr Patnaik underscored the need for an integrated approach to deal with the evolving complex situation, saying sea surges and inundations would adversely affect the ecosystems with rise in sea level destroying mangroves and estuaries and impacting agriculture.
Battered by the cyclone Phailin, the Chilka lake had temporarily turned into a freshwater lake for about five months. But the resilience of the lagoon’s ecosystem enabled it to get its brackish character restored and come back to its earlier form, he said.