While autumn’s cooler night is not the norm in Odisha with the minimum temperature in western Odisha remaining appreciably above normal (that means more than 3 degree Celsius but less than or equal to 5 deg C) and majority of coastal parts witnessing above normal minimum temperature (more than 1.6 deg C but less than 3 deg C), and when the departure in maximum temperature on Sunday in the coastal region, especially southern and central, has been appreciably above normal by 4.6 deg C, there is more likelihood of intense rainfall activity in the State soon.
It could prove a dampener for the Diwali fest as the met models indicate of an intensified depression to move to the south Odisha and north coastal Andhra Pradesh landmass on October 19, the Diwali day.
Though the Indian Met Department has forecast at this stage a likelihood of Odisha bracing up with another depression on the Diwali day, it developing into a storm cannot be ruled out given the current conditions of the Bay of Bengal (BoB).
“Analysis of oceanic data reveals of a likelihood of the low pressure area formed over the central BoB (as shown in the figure given below) intensifying into a storm with gusty winds touching 50-65km/hr but not into tropical cyclones like Phailin or Hudhud, given its current distance from the landmass along with some other crucial factors,” explained a senior scientist at the met office here.
Significantly, the analysis of the in-situ BoB data reveals the factors of cyclonegenesis at work in the BoB. It shows the BoB currently looks ‘red hot’ as the sea surface temperature is currently hovering at over 30 deg C when the normal sea surface temperature in October is 27 deg C.
Notably, however, the most important indicator of depth of 26 deg C (D26 isothermal) in the BoB is currently not extending beyond 50 meters, which is preventing formation of a cyclone of the stature of Phailin or Hudhud. Except the D26 isothermal, other factors like vertical wind shear (change in speed of wind vis-a-vis altitude) is supportive of cyclone formation as it has dropped to a mere 4-6 mt/sec now. This analysis, thus, reveals an evolving ‘warm core’ and ‘spinning of wind’ over a central BOB area but with some riders which indicate the low pressure evolving to deep depression and a storm, the top scientist added.
However, it looks certain that in any case, Diwali in Odisha would likely to be watered down given the fast activities taking place in the BoB.