The Covid-19 pandemic is likely to be over in India around mid-September. Two public health experts from the Health Ministry have made this claim. They have used a mathematical model-based analysis to draw the projection. The analysis shows that when the number of infected becomes equal to those removed from circulation by recovery and death, the coefficient will reach the 100-per cent threshold and the epidemic will be ‘extinguished’.
The analysis, published in the online journal Epidemiology International, has been done by Dr Anil Kumar, Deputy Director General (Public Health) in the DGHS, and Rupali Roy, Deputy Assistant Director (Leprosy) DGHS in the Health Ministry. They used the Bailey's mathematical model to draw the projection. This randomly-determined mathematical ‘mode' takes into consideration the distribution of the total size of an epidemic involving both infection and removal. Most experts believe an effective vaccine won’t be ready until well into 2021 and we will all be coexisting with the virus for the next year or longer in the absence of a magic bullet. This next phase of the crisis may require us to reset our expectations and awareness and change our behaviour. There is threat from the neighbourhood, no less than country-to-country travel. As much depends on the severity of local outbreaks and the effectiveness of testing, contact tracing, social distancing, hospital systems and public health messaging that is free of political shading, the danger may remain hanging for some more time.
So, not all the news is grim the media keeps churning out nonstop. The social media outfits are so overwhelmingly pessimistic that it appears as if the virus shall never go. Panic is also spread by some public officials despite noble intentions of sensitising the masses. The form and content of publicity they use are terribly poor and misplaced. All the same, now that super experts say we are nearer to the end of the tunnel, there is cause to feel relieved and have the basic, inborn immunity restored naturally. Immunity is more a mental thing than physical.
Looking back in time, we get to know that in the first half of the year, governments worldwide resorted to emergency measures like forced business closures, stay-at-home rules and bans on large gatherings. The moves slowed infection, saved lives and gave leaders time to stockpile medical equipments and supplies. Yet, that progress came at the cost of economic contraction, soaring unemployment and trillions of dollars in fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. Governments are likely to be reluctant to resort to wholesale lockdowns again in anything short of a catastrophe.
The Indian corona figures look horrific by the sheer number though the percentage is not that ghastly. Oftentimes, the Press briefings by state officials and media masters do not make clear the severity. They do not talk in terms of percentages and proportions. Actually, India is still in a highly manageable state, more so because the virus-strain appears to be less virulent than the one that afflicted humans before March in big numbers elsewhere in the world. But as usual, India has taken its share of beating on the economic front due to lockdowns and shutdowns.
Luckily however, many Indian businesses have lately shown real good preparedness, made contingency plans for the future and continue to operate as near-normal despite the significant impact of corona over the last months. According to HSBC's Navigator report, almost half (46%) of Indian businesses covered under a survey, felt 'very strongly' impacted by the pandemic; yet, more than half (54%) felt they were as well-prepared as they possibly could be. This is a level that is the second highest amongst all countries surveyed and higher than the average across all markets (45%), according to the report titled 'Building Back Better'. The survey was conducted on more than 2,600 companies across 14 global markets, including 200 Indian firms. Despite the high level of impact faced by Indian businesses, more than a quarter (29%) of those surveyed said they are operating as normal; and this level was the second highest across all markets, behind mainland China.
“While COVID-19 has undeniably altered the economic landscape, Indian businesses have shown resilience in the face of adversity. Businesses will have to make varying degrees of adjustments to adapt to this altered landscape which will be the new normal for the foreseeable future," HSBC India Head of Commercial Banking Rajat Verma said. The fact that a substantial proportion of Indian businesses are still operating as normal may be attributed to nearly three quarters (73%) of them either having a management that is sufficiently agile or being strong overall and able to manage with a number of adjustments. However, 2% of those surveyed in India feel their long-term survival is threatened.
The survey further said the most important aspect for around 42% of Indian businesses is to review their suppliers' ability to weather future uncertainty. Besides, 64% of Indian businesses see the current environment ensuring positive changes to their products/ services. This is the joint highest across all markets surveyed (along with China) and significantly higher than the overall average at 44%. Moreover, favourable changes to customer demand (60%) and better access to financing facilities (62%) are some of the other aspects that have been positively impacted by the current environment as per the survey.
However, aspects related to availability of labour have the lowest positive balance for Indian businesses with only 53% seeing it being positively impacted while 25% see a negative outcome from the current environment.
Incidentally, a few barely-known, mostly-unsung astrologers too have predicted a significant waning trend of corona.
Lastly, the vaccine made in the UK may take half a year more to be declared safe for human use. An indigenous vaccine too is not far behind although India will keep displaying devilish figures and numbers of the afflicted. People will hardly die as the inherent potential of Indians to fight viral infections has always been big on record. This does not mean Indians are out of danger. Those who have espoused Western style of life, particularly ‘family structure' and ‘food', are likely to have lost the usually robust ‘Indian immunity'. Hand washing, social distancing and keeping indoors may have to be respected for some more time to ensure perfect safety.