In November 2020, the entire world had gone off guard believing the virus had packed bag and gone because the surge became weaker. By the end of January this year, even the smartest of authorities proudly did unlock the whole world without once mentioning the virus was around and waiting to invade humans the moment they got off guard. By March, the explosive outbreak happened in a second wave, for which no one was prepared. The vaccines that had surfaced a little earlier were brushed aside as dangerous by the masses as infection had just gone too low. How the second wave caused havoc and turned India the global ‘corona capital’ is common knowledge.
Only hours ago, cautioning messages have been shared by top medical experts and WHO scientists including Soumya Swaminathan. The following critical facts are in hand:
Delta dominates the world. Though available, vaccines are still able to defend against serious disease and death from Delta, scientists are watching for worrisome offspring that will escape vaccines and cause breakthrough infection. People infected with newer Delta variants carry around 1,200 times more virus in their noses compared with the original version of the coronavirus. The amount of virus in vaccinated individuals who become The naturally infected and cured or the vaccinated can carry the same amount of virus as those never unvaccinated and all these can transmit the virus to others alike.
Delta makes up 99.5% of all genomic sequences reported to public databases and it has "outcompeted" other variants in most countries. All future variants will be offshoots of Delta, the notable "grandchild" of which is now known as AY.4.2 that is concentrated largely in the UK, where it makes up roughly 10% of sequenced virus samples. It doesn't seem to cause more severe illness or that it's resistant to the vaccines; but it could be a hugely more transmissible than the original Delta. Switching to the India picture, one gets to hear of epidemiologists who seem to suggest that maybe India's entering an endemic stage. That is grossly premature to say now.
At the moment, infection in India is sort of plateauing in the 10 to 15,000 per day range. When the level of population immunity is high enough to prevent the kind of explosive outbreaks that India suffered in the second wave, there may be some logic in being lax on mask use and not adhering to social distancing. But the stage has not yet come. Many people don't have the immunity through natural infection or vaccine. Further, no one is sure as yet how long immunity lasts after attaining it anyway. They say now 65 per cent across India have developed enough antibodies for protection, which means a lot of people have been exposed. Even then, all of them are immune and will continue to stay immune for long. Everyone to the last person including kids must be vaccinated to ensure the virus fails to get even a single host to survive and multiply.
The concept of endemicity seems to apply to India only because infection is waning. But it's still a pandemic situation India is passing through as new variants are getting ready to wreak havoc. So, it's really premature to say that India now is safe and it can let the guard down. The WHO emergency committee is reviewing the data every three months. They will decide when actually Covid is no longer a public scourge.
On the other hand, the cautious and the wise narrate disturbing India tales referring to Kerala, the paradox of a State with a strong public health system that accounts for more than 75 per cent of India's corona infection cases, at the moment. However, the truth is that testing and reporting are very important elements and sometimes which are reported misleadingly. By the numbers coming out of Africa, one would think they haven't had much infection. But the truth is that there is hardly any reasonable number of testing being done. So, some African states are considered safe. Kerala perhaps is extremely efficient and honest about testing and reporting figures. Other States may be failing on those fronts.
Europe, particularly the eastern bloc, is again battling the virus even as reports are encouraging in certain other parts of the world. But either way, the big message is ‘Don't be complacent. Don't let your guard down. Continue to vaccinate, vaccinate and vaccinate more vigorously to cover the entire populace’.
Unfortunately in India, the authorities have begun getting awfully, nay dangerously, casual and opening up floodgates everywhere around in the name of livelihood which is perfectly fine. But penalties and punishments for violation of Covid-appropriate behaviour are virtually reduced to nil or none now. Even mask is not worn above the nose; it’s always below. Watching officials have merrily vanished from the scene.
Blunders of unlocking in 2020 had conclusively proven lethal. Now that vaccine efficacy has also waned after six months, people are almost in the same vulnerable state as of early 2021, more so because experts say they are not sure how many Delta offshoots would emerge and when.
This is the time to get on tighter, more robust guard. Winter events in India are too many. More people than ever go out on picnics and fun, travel to distant tourist locations and mingle with others. One-India may happen on the wrong front -- ‘Covid infection’. And Indians are known to go berserk on the Christmas and New Year eves.
The corona virus has not gone away at all. It’s only waiting to hunt down the weak and the vulnerable one fine day soon. The vaccine efficacy is waning fast. Policy and decision makers better beware!