The appointment of Niranjan Patnaik as the OPCC president with a new leadership team has created euphoria in the State Congress. While the PCC president has set up a target of 85 Assembly seats in 2019 Assembly poll, some leaders are hoping for a Congress return to power like 1995 poll, jumping from 10 to 80 seats.
In 1990 Assembly poll, 109,60, 587 valid votes were polled with 56.6 per cent polling. 62 per cent of male, 51 per cent women, 59.8 per cent GC, 55.8 per cent SC and 47.43 per cent ST voters had cast their votes for the 147 Assembly seats .The Janata Dal(JD) had secured 53.69 per cent votes and 123 Assembly seats , followed by the Congress with 29.78 per cent votes and 10 seats and the BJP with two seats and 3.56 per cent vote . The CPM got one and CPI got five seats. Independents got six seats with 7.36 per cent votes. There was seat sharing between the JD and the left parties. Biju Patnaik became the CM.
The situation, however, took a surprise U- turn in 1995Assembly poll.158,15,009 valid votes were polled under very high polling rate of 73.6 per cent . 74.35 per cent of male, 72.84 per cent female, 74 per cent GC, 72.59 per cent of SC and 73.19 per cent ST voters cast their votes. The Congress bagged 80 Assembly seats with 39 per cent votes, followed by the JD with 46 seats and 35 per cent votes. The newcomers like BJP and JMM bagged nine seats with 8 per cent votes and four seats with 1.94 per cent votes, respectively. Independents got six seats but with 10.5 per cent votes. JB Patnaik became the CM.
There were mainly five factors for the 10 times win of Assembly seats of Congress. Though the Congress lost its power in the 1990 poll, it had the strength at the constituency level as it was in power in the State from 1980-1990. The 1991 lok Sabha poll gave back its lost strength when the party got 13 seats, leaving the JD with six. The low turnout of the voters in general and the women and the STs in particular in 1990 had indicated the weak JD’s support in those segments .Though the JD Government had floated some schemes for the women and the STs, it did not work in 1995 poll.
The second success factor of the Congress was the anti-incumbency of the ruling JD which was indicated by a massive 73.6 per cent turnout of voters .Most of the JD Assembly candidates suffered significant loss in vote percentage in 1995.
The third factor was the rise of the JMM and the BJP in the State which cut the JD votes. JMM bagged four and BJP bagged nine Assembly seats in 1995. JMM devastated the JD in Mayurbhanja district while the BJP ate away the JD’s votes in a few constituencies.
The fourth factor was the poll mismanagement by the JD due to overconfidence. It did not make alliance with the left parties which resulted in the loss of some seats that it had won in 1990. In places like Jatni, the Congress won because of a JD dissident who contested as Independent due to denial of ticket. Emergence of Independent candidates pushed up their vote share to 10.5 per cent, diverting mainly the JD votes. An enthusiastic Dama Rout fought carelessly from two Assembly seats, finally gifting both the seats to the Congress. On the other hand, the experienced JB Patnaik managed the Congress poll well.
The fifth factor was the presence of Congress Government at the Centre.
Analysing the 2014 Assembly poll, one finds that 212,61,344 valid votes were polled by 73.8 per cent registered voters. 73 per cent of male, 74 per cent of female and 3 per cent of other voters exercised their franchise. Similarly, 73 per cent General Caste, 73 per cent SC, 77 per cent ST voters had cast their votes. The BJD had secured 117 Assembly seats with 43.35 per cent vote share, followed by the Congress with 16 seats and 25.71 per cent vote share and BJP with 10 seats and 18 per cent vote share.
CPM won one, SKD won one and Independents won two seats. later, the SKD MlA left the party and joined the JMM while one Independent MlA joined the BJD. This win ofBJD is different from the JD’s win of 1990. There is high polling but pro-incumbency voting and there is equal participation of the weaker sections in the poll. There was no alliance in 2014, unlike that of JD in1990.
Comparing 1995 with 2019, one finds the absence of the very important pull-back “organisational strength” factor in the Congress in 2019.
The Congress party has become weak due to continuous absence from power. It has neither lS MPs nor it is at the Central Government now.
Some leaders at the constituency level have defected to other parties.
Its 2014 poll vote share was 4 per cent less than that of 1990 though its number of MlAs is more than that of 1990. There was further loss of votes to 17 per cent in the 2017 PRI poll and the party got only 60 Zilla Parishad seats out of 846 polled.
There is anti-incumbency factor against the Government like 1995, but unlike 1995, there is a neutralizing scheme- regime of the BJD Government that binds the weaker section voters with the ruling party.
Unlike 1995, the Government employees are pro-Government now. The BJD is also focusing on party re-organisation, issues and new schemes to checkmate the opponents and it is a better poll manager than the JD.
In 1995, the Congress was the single Opposition to reap anti-incumbency benefits but it has the emerging BJP as its competitor now. There is no similarity between 1995 and 2019 situations in favour of Congress, except a better leadership team. Even if the Congress improves its south and west Odisha organisation, 85 or 74 (half of 147 seats) Assembly target is difficult due to severe coastal weakness of the party.
(The writer is a freelancer)