Except in his own constituency in Gajam district, BJD supremo and CM Naveen Patnaik is not making himself available for a pan-Odisha panchayat election campaign. The weak ZP candidates and the anti-incumbency-hunted BJD MlAs were eagerly waiting for their Big Brother’s blessing at the local election podium. The candidates know that both the flavor and favour flow from the hands of the party president. They were eventually disheartened. Panaik electioneered in Ganjam at the last day of the campaign. He may visit a few constituencies on the last day but that is of symbolic nature or meant to dilute Raman Singh and Arjun Munda’s media capture.
leaders of the national parties also surprisingly skipped the PRI campaign festival. BJP national president and INC national vice president have remained incognito during the Odisha PRI poll, citing their engagements in the Assembly polls in north India. The national heads of INC and BJP might have skipped their Odisha visit and prioritized the north elections, due to the poor vote harvests over successive years from the State, a barren unattractive voting terrain for them. However, BJP is sending some neighborhood State leaders and some Union Ministers to step up the campaign for the party and fill up the high profile Modi-Amit Shah gap.
Patnaik’s absence from the campaign raises two probability theories. One is the theory of confidence whereas the other is the theory of constraint. As per the confidence theory, Patnaik is not joining the BJD-campaign Jatra as he is already confident of a big win in the forthcoming ZP elections. Constraint theory talks of some weaknesses due to which Patnaik is not going to canvass.
let us examine the confidence theory. During the 2012 PRI election, BJD had won 651 ZP seats out of the 851 polled seats, leaving INC with 128, BJP with 36, JMM with 11 and Independents with 22 seats. This was the performance of the BJD in the last ZP poll in the background of 103 State Assembly strength of BJD, in contrast to the INC strength of 27 MlAs, BJP’s six MlAs, six Independent MlAs, four NCP MlAs and one CPI MlA. The ZP results showed that the BJD occupied 76 per cent of ZP seats in 2012 whereas it had captured 70 per cent of Assembly seats in 2009. This means there was a forward surge for BJD from 2009-2012.
When we calculate BJD’s Assembly strength now, it has reached 118, after the Satyabadi Independent MlA joined BJD, which is 80 per cent of Assembly seats. There are two possibilities now. Either there is a forward momentum which means BJD will get more than 80 per cent seats in ZP elections which counts to 680 plus ZP seats. This size is bigger than the last time ZP cake of BJD. If there is a 10 per cent forward momentum, then BJD can procure 760 ZP seats.
On the other hand, if there is a backward surge in the districts of Koraput( by INC), Nuapada( by BJP), Deogarh(by BJP), Kondhamal(by INC) , Gajapati ( by INC), Keonjhar( by Sana Mahakud and Niranjan Babu alliance) , Kendrapda ( by INC)and Bargarh(by BJP), there will be fall in the performance of BJD. If the fall is 10 per cent from the Assembly performance level, which means fall till 600 ZP seats, BJD could recover from the loss before the 2019 Assembly poll. But if the fall of ZP numbers goes down to 10-20 per cent level, then BJD will face existential challenge for 2019 Assembly poll.
Had both the INC and the BJP gained momentum, they would have pulled down BJD below 600 ZP seats. The growth of BJP will drop the tally of Independents. Dissident BJD Independents will have no value as they would move towards BJD during ZP body formation, except in the districts where there is a district ZP body prospects for the opposition. BJD shall not drop below the 600 ZP seats level and it will move between 600-760 ZP seats.
BJP shall surely improve its 2012 ZP tally. In terms of the percentage of votes, INC is still having energy to claim the second position though BJP is expected to be securing second largest number of ZP seats. The poll management strength of BJD, coupled with its financial strength, shall witness many wins with small margin. For the INC, funds are creating a hurdle though it has wide base. For the BJP, it is a testing time of their new expansion policy and funds management.
May be Patnaik is confident of BJD’s big win and is not visiting the election fertile land, as he has already visited all the districts before the declaration of poll and has given responsibility to party second-liners to manage the process. It may be remembered that the 2012 PRI poll of BJD was conducted by former BJD strategist Pyari Mohapatra, who is no more in the party. So it is a challenge for the BJD organizers.
On the other hand, the constraint theory speaks a different story. One assumption is that Patnaik may not be electioneering because he is unwell. The other factor is the risks relating to his visits. His last visits were shrouded with controversies of police action against protestors and incidences of women’s scarp-removal. Patnaik may not want any more negative outcomes relating to his visit. He might be aware of the theory of diminishing marginal utility so that further visits could reduce his image. less the supply, more is the demand.
There is another assumption that Patnaik does not want to escalate the cost of PRI election by using helicopter. The cost shall be added to the party cost. The Opposition might ask him about the sources of these funds. Besides, it will be very difficult to identify the people standing with him on the dais and some of them might be accused in criminal cases or involved in chit-fund scam. It will damage his reputation. The escalated violence and misuse of sarkari facilities might be linked to his visits. Thus he refrains from such traps. There could also be a security problem due to the recent Maoist violence.
There is yet another angle which speaks about a soft stand of BJD towards the fight between BJP and INC to occupy the second position. As the BJP and INC national heads are not visiting the rural polls, Patnaik as president of BJD might be showing his equidistant theory and allowing both opposition parties to fight on their own to avoid any accusation of tilt of BJD. If Patnaik goes to an area and BJP wins there, then INC will accuse BJD of siding with BJP for favours in chit-fund investigation. Similarly, if INC candidate wins after Patnaik’s movement, BJP will quote Bhatruharibabu’s statement of INC-BJD alliance in 2019.