As the 2017 panchayat election draws near, all political parties have begun their hectic preparations. The State Election Commission, which is in charge of conducting the PRI election, has given the State Government the August deadline to conclude the panchayat reorganisation process.
Panchayat election in Odisha is fought with party symbols at Zilla Parisad level and therefore, ZP election is considered as mini-Assembly election. The outcome of 2017 ZP will indicate the mood of the voters for 2019 Assembly poll. Each block has approximately three ZP zones and Odisha has 314 blocks. Ganjam districts had 69 and Mayurbhanj district had 56 ZP zones, the highest number of zones in 2012 elections. On the other hand, it is easy to form ZP body in districts like Deogarh and Boudh which have less than 10 ZP zones.
When we look back at 2012 PRI election, we find strong domination of BJD in the poll canvass. Out of total 854 ZP zones in the State, the BJD had bagged 651, Congress 128, BJP 36 , JMM 11 , CPI two, CPM one, while independents took away 22 seats. Elections to four seats were conducted later. The JMM took 10 seats in Mayurbhanj and one seat in Sundergarh district. After its erstwhile leader Sudam Marandi joined the BJD in 2014 and got elected and George Tirky won from SKD, the JMM stakes shall be low in 2017 PRI poll in these districts and its votes might shift to BJD in Mayurbhanj and to SKD in Sundergarh. If the JMM forms an alliance with some party, it might perform well.
Similarly, the CPI and the CPM, which were only present in Ganjam district last time, are likely to give low performance as Chhatrapur seat was lost by CPI in 2014 Assembly poll. But in Banei Assembly seat, where CPM got a MlA candidate in 2014 election, ZP performance can be ascertained. If there is a left unity or alliance with Congress, then their performance might increase in a few districts. There were large numbers of independent candidates last time, seven in Sundergarh alone, which might substantially reduce this time as there are several parties to give tickets.
Coming to major opposition parties, Congress and BJP, they faced a poll disaster last election. The BJD had a huge number of ZP members leading to capture of ZP president posts in 28 districts, except Jharsuguda and Kondhamal districts where the ZP president posts went to Congress. It will be difficult for Congress to secure ZP president post in Jharsuguda district in 2017, as its ex-MlA Anup Sai has joined BJD and BJP captured Brajarajnagar Assembly seat in 2014.
Similarly, in Kondhamal, Congress might lose to BJD as it got only one MlA seat in 2014 Assembly poll. It is trying to harvest votes on Baliguda police firing issue. But the Congress has some prospects too. It might take away ZP bodies in Gajapati and Koraput in the light of 2014 performance. last time, the Congress could not win any ZP seats in the districts of Bhadrak, Deogarh, Nayagarh, Nuapada and the same situation might prevail this time.
BJP was not in a position to form ZP body in any districts last time. The saffron party scored zero in ZP election in Baleswar, Bargarh, Boudh, Deogarh, Jajpur, Jharsuguda, Jagatsinghpur, Keonjhar, Koraput, Nawarangpur, Puri, Rayagada, Subarnapur and Sundergarh districts last time. The BJP position shall improve in Rayagada and Koraput districts as it has taken ex-Congress MP Giridhar Gomango. Similarly, it will open its books in Bargarh, Deogarh, Jharsuguda,Puri and Baleswar due to the presence of its MlAs. It will take away district ZP bodies from BJD in the districts of Deogarh and Nuapada. It will have to work hard to make its scores in Jajpur, Keonjhar, Jagatsingpur, Nabarangpur and Subarnapur districts. The BJP has to show its performance in Sundergarh district where it has one MP and one MlA. Here, there are some challenges. Rourkela, where it has a MlA, is an urban area and in Banei, where the party has stronghold once, saw a defection of one ex-MlA to the BJD.
Though the BJD had a sweeping victory in 2012, in 20 districts like Angul, Baleswar, Bargarh, Bhadrak, Bolangir, Cuttack, Deogarh, Dhenkanal, Ganjam, Jajpur, Jagatsinghpur, Kalahandi, Kendrapada, Keonjhar, Khurda, Mayurbhanj, Nabarangpur, Nayagarh, Puri and Subarnapur, it had eight borderline success districts. In Boudh , the BJD got five out of nine ZP seats, in Gajapati it secured seven out of 14 seats, in Koraput , it got 14 out of 29 seats, in Malkanagiri it took eight out of 15 seats, in Nuapada it bagged nine out of 14 seats, in Rayagada it got 12 out of 22 seats, in Sambalpur it got 10 out of 19 seats and in Sundergarh , it got 19 out of 35 seats. The opposition activities in these districts could upset the lead position of the BJD in 2017.
last time, the Opposition leveled various charges against ruling BJD like Sarva Shikshya Abhiyan and MGNREGS scams, mining scam, MDM corruption and the Pipli rape incident besides the hooch tragedy which occurred during the election time, but the BJD could manage the show by lunching Mamata scheme, free bi-cycle scheme , giving 50 per cent reservation to women in Panchayat bodies. CM and BJD boss Naveen Patnaik had a whirlwind tour across the State which also worked wonder for the party.
The challenges, however, for the BJD in 2017 are more complex with the Opposition leveling serious scam allegations against the Government at the top and the ration card deprived people and the chit fund affected demanding relief at the ground. There is also dissatisfaction among teachers and other grassroots semi-Government staff against the State Government. The in-party dissidence shall also come out as rebel candidates. The BJD shall develop its strategy accordingly taking into account all these factors.
On the other hand, the opposition parties are more active this time. Though major opposition Congress is yet to get united to face 2017 poll, the BJP has strengthened its organization unlike last time. The Opposition’s propaganda, election strategy, booth presence, election funding and selection of candidates shall determine the outcome of the 2017 PRI poll.