September 13, 2013 was a hectic day for mediapersons in New Delhi. Four young men, convicted of having raped and murdered a young girl on December 16, 2012, were sentenced to death by a Delhi court while BJP chieftains despite strident opposition from within the party, catapulted Narendra Modi as the saffron outfit’s Prime Ministerial candidate ahead of the 2014 elections. Mercurial pace bowler S Sreesanth, embroiled in a spot-fixing scandal in the IPl, was slapped with a life ban the same day, the news hogging the front and sports pages of newspapers.
However, Modi’s ‘coronation’, as the media chose to describe the development, eclipsed the other two events. Most national TV news channels chose to devote the evening’s debate to the happenings within the BJP rather than the judicial pronouncement on the gory rape and murder of a hapless girl that set off tremors across the country. Modi’s elevation, though anticipated, suddenly picked up momentum as confabulations continued among leaders though stiff opposition came from one of the party’s architects, lal Krishna Advani.
Having toiled hard to build the party brick by brick with the likes of Atal Behari Vajpayee, Balraj Madhok and others, Advani suddenly found himself sidelined by the very leaders whose political careers he himself had nurtured.
Advani’s refusal to attend the party’s Parliamentary Board meeting on the day and the misgivings of the likes of Murli Manohar Joshi and Sushma Swaraj on Modi’s selection for the top position, clearly split the party down the middle. Joshi and Swaraj appeared to have accepted the inevitable at the last moment when BJP chief Rajnath Singh announced the name of Modi as the party’s PM-in-waiting.
Advani had earlier opposed Modi’s elevation as the party’s Election Committee head at the BJP national executive meeting held in Goa in June when he kept away from the conclave, raising the heat within the party.
The BJP patriarch, like during the Goa executive meeting, shot off a letter to Rajnath Singh expressing his disappointment “with the way the party is run” while making no bones in pointing out that the decision had been “taken in a hurry”.
Party leaders tried to make the best of a bad situation with Venkaiah Naidu asserting that Advani had not been sidelined but he had made his stand clear as a member of a democratic party. Arun Jaitley said though Advani had been a role model for a generation of BJP leaders, the people wanted a ‘decisive leader’ who could take the nation forward.
Amidst the hectic parleys that continued in New Delhi through September 12 and 13, there were reports about the RSS providing the final push and clearing the way for Modi to spearhead BJP’s electoral campaign for 2014.
The Congress maintained a studied silence even though many political observers felt that principal opponent BJP had stolen a march on them by naming its Prime Ministerial candidate. Party spokesperson Renuka Chowdhury chose to ignore the happenings, saying developments in any other party did not concern the Congress. “We simply cannot be bothered,” she retorted.
But the BJP continued to simmer inside as some leaders spewed venom. Sudheendra Kulkarni, said to be close to Advani, publicly declared that “history will show it is a wrong choice”.
Rajnath Singh, however, argued in support of Modi’s elevation, saying the party’s decision was “based on the mood of the nation and cadre (of the party)”. Analysts have been debating as to whether it has been a ‘masterstroke’ for the BJP or the Gujarat Chief Minister (Modi) with the aftermath of the Godhra riots of 2002 still haunting him, had been pushed too soon. But a sulking Advani could be bidding his time.
Enthusiastic BJP leaders, apparently ecstatic over the development, have started claiming that the party could win a clear majority in the next Parliamentary polls though it would continue to hold the hands of its allies.
But given the kind of political situation obtaining in the country since the 1990s, observers feel it would be very hard for the saffron party to conjure up a majority on its own and the party would have to garner support of a few other parties.
When the BJP-led NDA was formed with the aura of Vajpayee drawing other political outfits under its umbrella, it was a different situation. The parties that had joined hands with the BJP, including the JD(U), the BJD and the TMC, have since parted ways with the saffron outfit. In fact, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar dissolved the JD(U)’s 17-year-long alliance with the BJP a few months ago after Modi became the latter’s election mascot.
But what will now capture the imagination of pollsters is whether Modi, if he wins around 200 seats for the BJP, will get the allies to support his cause. Even Vajpayee with 166 seats in 1996, had difficulty in getting allies and his Government crumbled within 13 days.
Modi supporters feel that if he gets anything around 200 seats, the allies will willy-nilly come around to support the BJP and help the NDA form a coalition Government. But here lies the catch. If Modi fails to win a comfortable majority for his party and has to look around for support, the game can start afresh. Advani may bounce back.
Such a scenario can trigger a whole new ballgame after the next elections. Allies which had distanced themselves from the BJP for some reason or other, or specifically on the issue of Modi spearheading the BJP’s campaign, may play tough and ask for a leader of their choice to lead the alliance. Advani’s name, after all, may crop up all over again for the post of Prime Minister on the argument that he was more acceptable to the allies whose vital support alone can help the NDA form a Government.
(The writer is a senior journalist)