The hosting of the BJP national executive committee meeting in Bhubaneswar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the State capital has generated a Modi euphoria in the coastal Odisha.
Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, who is the key architect of the BJP meet, has reasons to be happy with the outcome. The public response of the residents to BJP’s star campaigner Modi is encouraging to the State BJP leaders.
It is discussed that the Prime Minister touched the coastal Odisha voters with a cultural-intervention strategy by visiting the lord lingaraj Temple, interacting with the servitors of the temple, walking on the roads, awarding the kin of freedom fighters and discussing about the plan for celebration of the centenary of “Paika Mutiny”.
Perhaps, he was silent against Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik to avoid dilution of the cultural dose with politics. As the Bhubaneswar voters are still in favour of the ruling BJD, Prime Minister Modi might have chosen a slow osmosis method of BJD voters to the BJP eco-system.
The ruling BJD has discarded the impact of the BJP meet on its supporters and forecast that the BJP shall not be able to win seats in 2019 polls in absence of its organization. Some senior journalists also believe in the organization theory. Does the organization theory really exist in the present political environment or it is a mythIJ
A reflection of the Aam Admi Party’s victory in Delhi and Narendra Modi’s swing in 2014 lok Sabha Poll tells us that a high-pitch election environment in favor of a party brings victory without any organisation. The second most important condition for the environment to expand is the existence of certain degree of anti-incumbency against the ruling party from which the Opposition picks of an Achilles’ heel to hit hard. The mass media and social media are seen as instrumental in building the pro-party climate.
When a pro-Opposition climate keeps building up, the non-committed voters and the youths are the first voters to show movements, like the glow worms move towards the brightest light.
They are followed by the dissidents who come out from their ant-holes slowly. This is followed by the opportunist group of business people, Government servants and others. Thus a pressure keeps building up on the grass root voters, resulting in the change of allegiance of some percentage of ruling party voters. Students, intellectuals, civil society groups, lawyers, local business men, local Government servants , vernacular media and few other groups keep drifting away slowly from the ruling party towards the prospective Opposition. Either they leave out of exclusion feeling or for a benefit.
When such a move at the grass root occurs, MlAs and MPs of the ruling party change positions. This is a top-down approach to political change instead of a bottom-up approach that is based on grass root level organization. On the other hand, there is so much expectation at the grass root level now- a-days that the political parties are fearing to have grass root organization which is a round the clock activity.
But what has substituted the organization systemIJ Now-a-days, the political parties are focusing on grass root leaders who can mobilize 5,000 votes on ward/caste/ religion lines and who can work as agencies to conduct elections of the party. Thus the panchayat and ZP level political leaders, social workers, business leaders, teacher leaders, ASHA orgnisation leaders, AWC union leaders, ex-MlAs become party cadres.
For Odisha which has 850 ZP zones, a party needs 3,400 rural cadresand 500 urban cadres to go to the grassroots. Besides, a party can network with influential persons of different sectors at district level and State level which can be another 2,000. Is it an impossible task for BJPIJ Besides, there are virtual supporters now on social sites. Presence of social groups of the party is a bonus to the climate building. BJP seems to be moving with regional segment plans and steady campaign strategy to develop a pro-BJP environment in each region and district.
The ZP election outcome of BJP in Odisha has proved us wrong. Often, the BJD and the INC argue that the dissidents of BJD or INC who moved towards the BJP during the ZP election, shall come back to their original homes by 2019 general elections. How could they ascertain the percentage of home-coming flying birdsIJ If the new home is better, the flying birds might rest there for 2019. After the ZP election, many ground level leaders are seen moving towards BJP. Can the BJD or the INC stop the defection at the grassrootsIJ
The BJP needs 75 seats to come to power in Odisha. The move from present 10 seats to 75 is only possible if the BJD and the INC are disconnected from society. The way the INC is moving in Odisha indicates that the party cannot revive by 2019. Such a pitiable situation will push its supporters and leaders toward the BJP and the BJD. The BJP will put more efforts to bring them. The BJD, which has a no free Assembly seats, might not show much interest to pull the INC leaders to its camp to avoid in-party conflict.
If BJP brings successfully the Congress leaders, it may gain a meagre of 5-10 assembly seats as the INC has only 16 seats presently. But a 10 -15 per cent movement of votes from the 2014 Assembly position, will be a big gain for the BJP.
The BJD will ensure that the INC is developed in Odisha and the party’s inner dissidence is dissolved to keep it at 74 Assembly seat level. It depends to what degree the BJD transforms itself. Even a loss of 5 per cent votes of the BJD to the BJP and the dismantling of the INC can bring unimaginable results for the Odisha BJP.
We have seen how the BJP moved to the second position in West Bengal in the just concluded by-election, pushing the left to the third position. The advantage position of the BJP in Odisha is that they are out of power for two terms.
Many power incumbent parties fail because they get caught unawares. When Maruti-800 car was launched in the Indian market, the ambassador car manufacturing HM Company did not assess it as a threat and was complacent. But the competition was fatal for the HM. Political analysts are waiting for the reforms in the BJD. Without the core reforms in the party identity, party value system, leadership-style, Government delivery, bureaucracy-representative collaboration system, MlA-MP relationship, stakeholder and civil society connectivity and cader-connectivity, only image management may not help it. If the BJP has national wave in 2019, it will help the party to get additional energy to fight against the BJD. Some people are talking about early election. The BJP will take time to build its home and shall not favour an early election. If the BJD chooses and an early election is held in 2018, the BJP will be able to mobilize out-State leaders as star campaigners and gain much mileage.