As the campaigning for the second and last phase of elections in Odisha drew close on Tuesday, the poll managers of the ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) have reasons to have sleepless nights till the results are known in mid-May.
This is despite their assertion that the “Naveen craze” is as strong this time as it was in 2009.In 2009, the BJD had won as many as 69 of the 77 Assembly seats that will now go to polls on April 17. However, there is little hope that the party will be able to reach anywhere close to that figure this time.Many observers are of the view that the BJD is going to lose heavily in this round of polls, as in the first phase, because of three factors: the Modi effect, anti-incumbency and intra-party rebel activities.
According to the observers, while the Modi wave appears to be working in favour of the BJP mainly in the lok Sabha polls and partly in the Assembly battle, it is the anti-incumbency and rebel factors that would substantially help the BJP and the Congress cut into the BJD vote bank in the Assembly polls and cause upsets in at least 20 constituencies.
The charisma of film actors engaged by the BJD doesn’t seem to have made much of a difference as far wooing the voters is concerned, concede party sources.“It’s Naveen Patnaik who is the lone star campaigner for us. Although he is addressing 10 to 15 election meetings in a day, the big problem with him is that he lacks oratorical skills and people do not understand half of what he reads out from his written speeches,” said a BJD candidate in Jajpur district.
The expensive publicity blitz highlighting just anything and everything including certificates from the UN and the Central Government to attract votes does not appear to have made much dent. The one-rupee rice, promises of pucca houses for all, reminding people of the ‘birth to death’ sops and the height of it all, the 108 ambulances have failed to do the magic expected for the party.
That explains why Patnaik has had to slip into slushy stuff like “I will serve the State till my last breath” and get offensive against the Opposition parties and their leaders.A major problem faced by the BJD is the lack of planning and co-ordination. Most of the veterans, who are busy defending their own seats or securing the future of their kith and kin in several seats, have little time for the party.
“It is not that Naveen Patnaik does not have a think tank to support him, but most of its members are non-politicians and greenhorns. There is a saying, too many cooks spoil the broth and that is what is happening to the party’s election plans,” said a disgruntled senior leader, adding, “We needed a person of Pyarimohan Mohapatra’s calibre to handle the nitty-gritty of daily electioneering and constituency-wise planning.”
The fact that there is a perceptible slide in the vote appeal of the BJD is evident in the latest NDTV opinion poll which has found a massive rise in the BJP’s fortune in the State.
The big question is what would be the Modi wave’s impact on the Assembly pollsIJ Observers differ on this issue. If the BJP does not gain out of the division of the incumbency votes, can the Congress fill in the voidIJ That question has no ready answers. As far as campaigning goes, the Congress camp is in great disarray. The double visits by Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi have brought little cheer to the Congress candidates in most constituencies. In fact, most of them are angry over the manner in which the members of the ‘PCC coterie’ hijacked the Gandhis to their own battle zones while leaving the rest high and dry.
According to a senior observer, if both BJP and Congress fail to reap benefits out of the strong undercurrent of anti-incumbency in the second phase, the TINA (there is no alternative) factor will come into play and the BJD would have the last laugh.
He adds, “Despite all hypes, predictions and projections about the possible results in the second phase polls, what would ultimately matter is not the so-called ‘waves’ but the undercurrent, something that may not be immediately perceptible but would definitely show up when the counting starts on May 16. Till then, the best option for all stakeholders is to keep fingers crossed.”