BJD president and Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik engineered a reform in his Ministry through a mega-reshuffle. Though the reshuffle re-aligned the power-equation in the BJD in favour of Patnaik and re-established his one-upmanship in the party, it could not generate the much required public hype due to the re- induction of some of the ex-Ministers whom Patnaik had dropped himself earlier on ethical and performance ground.
In a boomerang effect, there was a sudden eruption of unprecedented chaos in the party as a fallout of the reshuffle due to frustration of the aspirants. The conspicuous absence of the shelved Ministers in the oath-ceremony sent a confusing message to public. In a firefighting mode, Patnaik intervened and extinguished the simmering fire through multiple interventions.
While Patnaik was struggling with the un-intended effects of the reshuffle, two party MPs continued to create discomfort for him by airing their differences of opinion on party management in the social and print media. In an act of cracking the whip, the BJD Supremo dropped MP Baijayant Panda as the parliamentary party spokesperson. It made Panda silent and rang the danger bell for another dissent-writing MP Bhatruhari Mahatab .There is a lurking fear that
one more column by Mahatab might cost him his lok Sabha leadership post. It was an unfortunate turning point in the party and Patnaik was seen acting tough in imposing discipline.
There is a thin line between whistle blowing and dissidence in the parties. In fact, whistle- blowing is not in vogue in parties but in-house private talks. Though both the MPs used to claim that they were airing as whistle blowers, their independent opinion did create confusion in the party. Minister Dama Rout, another dissent voice raiser, has calmed down in recent days, perhaps, after realising the quantum of opportunities he provides to the Opposition through his adventurism.
In an unexpected move, which Patnaik does always, Pratap Deb was sent to the Rajya Sabha. While some considers the move as an act of power balance in Kendrapada politics, others consider it as checkmate to MP Panda. The grapevine has it that Patnaik had someone in his mind when he called back Bishnu Das but the post-reshuffle imbalance changed the move of the politically matured CM. It is also discussed in the public that Deb as a trusted general of Patnaik shall be given the party spokesperson post in the Parliament and shall work to shield the party MPs from the influence of the BJP.
As part of his new people-connectivity plan, Patnaik took another unexpected political move. He met Soumya Ranjan Patnaik who is an anti-Naveen and anti-Congress politician, a social organizer and a journalist. The ex-MP, owner of a media house and president of Ama Odisha Party, Soumya has been associated with various protest movements currently. He is also a rallying point of an incubating alternative regional political front. In 2014 general election, the AOP did not fare well as the alliance with BJP could not be forged.
Thereafter, Soumya entered into mass -based issue-politics and social group connectivity strategy. Though Naveen was tight-lipped on the meeting, Soumya has said that the Chief Minister has expressed his desire to discuss with the various protest groups with whom he is associated with. Some critics view the meeting between the two Patnaiks as a political togetherness for a mutual benefit. But it is a welcome step if the Chief Minister initiates talks with various protest groups and addresses their demands which will ultimately popularise him more. Naveen’s April-handshake with Soumya is viewed as a matured strategy to counter his powerful dissidents and opponents in addition to get increasing media support.
The Congress has been silent after the rural poll. OPCC president Prasad Harichandan is not seen taking up party programmes, perhaps due to the discomfort chorus for change of leadership by certain sections. Congress VP Rahul Gandhi, though had several rounds of consultation with the State congress leaders and party MlAs, he could not decide on the leadership change issue. The indiscipline, lack of collective spirit and the absence of a poll strategy put the party in a spot. There is a talk that the party wants to go for organizational elections from the booth to the State level, instead of changing the State president now. The Congress is at a crossroads and the delay in reform is pushing its middle level leaders towards the BJP. In fact, a weak Congress will strengthen the BJP in Odisha.
After making inroads into its lost territories of the alliance days in 2017 rural polls, the BJP is on for a coastal expedition. The State unit is waiting eagerly for the June visit of national president Amit Shah to Ganjam district, which is the fort of Chief Minister Patnaik.
No one knows what Shah’s Odisha plan is. Going by the disclosure of the Union Tribal Minister Jual Oram, it can be inferred that the BJP is planning to accommodate the dissident BJD leaders and encourage a split in the BJD as Oram refers to 1995-96 situation repeatedly. This can only happen if BJD weakens organizationally and the State Government becomes unpopular by the election time and if there is blowing of pro-BJP wind from Delhi. As BJD Government has two more years and these plans appear to be pre mature now.
Currently the BJP has opened its doors to various dissident leaders of the Congress and the BJD, like Jayaram Pangi, Giridhari Gomango and so on. Absence of candidates in 147 Assembly constituencies and 21 Parliament constituencies might be forcing the BJP to co-opt the BJD and Congress leaders. But the strategy can also create a negative public opinion against the BJP when they see the old BJD leaders or their children are backed by the BJP to continue their “Raj” in their respective constituency. They may dislike the old wine in the new bottles. Further, the newly” adopted” sons and daughters would be a discomfort for the existing senior cadres and be the potential repellants to the fresh political entrants who are anti-BJD in nature.
Reading the public feedback of the last rural poll, it appears that the people voted for the BJP due to the new combating style of young Union Oil Minister Dharmedra Pradhan and the struggle of the newly formed teams at various levels. No big defected BJD or Congress leaders were in the BJP when the rural poll was taking place. Now all eyes are on Shah’s game plan for Odisha.