Voters of the Bijepur Assembly constituency shall exercise their franchise on February 24 in a by-election to fill up the vacancy that arose due to the death of MlA Subal Sahu of the Congress. The Congress had been winning the seat since 2004 whereas the BJD had won it in 2000. The constituency was reorganized in 2009. The BJP, which had no record of success earlier in the constituency, had surprisingly gathered 55 per cent of votes and bagged six ZP seats out of seven in 2017 PRI-ZP polls.
The Election Commission has made all arrangements for a free and fair poll. The district Collector and SP have been changed as the opposition BJP complained about their political bias. Sensitive booths out of 270 have been identified. Police and special forces have been deployed and check posts have been created. Poll observers are in place. The counting shall be held on February 28.
There are around 2,22,000 voters. There were 2,07,055 voters in 2014 Assembly poll, which was 15,000 less than the current voter size. There was 80 per cent polling, i.e., 16,5,747 polled votes, during the last Assembly poll. If we assume 80 per cent voting this time, the total polling size shall be around 17,6,000 votes.
As the constituency consists of 11 wards of Barpali NAC, only 16 GPs of Barpali Block, all 24 GPs of Bijepur Block and all 19 GPs of Gaisilet Block, the segment wise polling based on the 2017 ZP poll trends, may be around 16,000 from Barpali NAC, 43,000 from Barpali Block, 63,000 from Bijepur Block and 54,000 from Gaisilet Block. A triangular fight is emerging among the BJP, the BJD and the INC.
Though there are 10 Independent candidates in the fray, they are not prominent ones .Interestingly, the Odisha regional parties like the Samata Kranti Dal, the Samrudha Odisha, the Ama Odisha, the Utkal Bharat, the Kalinga Sena, the Kosal Kranti Dal etc could not be found in the fray. There was no emergence of any new formation as time and again gossiped about. It is expected that the NOTA and all independents can take away between 5,000 and 10,000 votes. If we deduct a maximum 6,000 votes of these marginal-players from the expected 17,6,000 polled votes, then 1,70,000 votes shall available for the three major players to share among themselves.
The INC is obviously in the back foot as its three- time MlA has died and his widow wife with the political cadres has defected to the BJD. The INC again lost the precious poll- preparation time by not declaring its candidate earlier which other parties did. Finally, it gave ticket to Pranay Sahoo at the last moment, who is the sitting Vice Chairman of Gaisilet Block and was the previous Chairman too. The INC has chosen Pranay Sahoo for his regional and caste advantage. He is from Gaisilet block whereas other candidates are from Barpali and he belongs to the Koltha caste which is the majority caste in thee constituency. Will the regional and caste sentiments work to a winning level when the party is weak at the State level, half-defected to the BJD at the ground level, sharply divided between western and coastal at the top leadership level on candidate selection issue and the candidate has anti-incumbency due to his prolonged occupation of Block leadershipIJ
However, party, regional and caste factor is expected to give INC an edge in Gaiselt Block. How much vote can INC candidate procure from a possible 54,000 Gaiselt voter turnoutIJ During the last 2017 ZP poll, the INC had got 9151, the BJP got 35,238 and the BJD secured 10,989 votes out of the total polled 56,000 votes of Gaisilet Block. Though the INC shall perform better than its 9,151 level, it is unlikely to catch half of Gasilet votes i.e. 28,000 votes.
Unless the Congress performs in Bijepur and Barpali, which is unlikely, it shall end up at third in the race. Both the BJP and the BJD shall check the growth of the INC in Gaisilet beyond 20,000. The INC can get maximum 20,000 votes from Bijepur and Barpali areas as Rita Sahoo had already taken away a big faction of the INC caders and there is weak INC campaign. Therefore, the INC can find resistance from the BJP and the BJD at 40,000 level.
Now, the BJD and the BJP shall fight to share the rest polled votes of 1,30,000 and therefore 65,000-67,000 shall be the winning target for the BJP and the BJD. They shall compete to cut the INC votes. The BJD made Rita its candidate to gain the sympathy vote as well as to get the main chunk of the INC votes. But her entry to the BJD has created some dissidence among the BJD ticket aspirants and developed conflict between the Rita supporters and the old BJD faction at the grassroots.
The party had tried to settle these issues. In the meanwhile, the State Government announced the NAC status to the Bijepur GP and declared a mega-irrigation scheme. By implementing infrastructure development activities before the poll, the BJD has attempted to please the villagers and satisfy the cadres. It has deployed three Ministers before two months to monitor the poll preparation activities. Presently, it has sent MlAs to each GP to conduct micro-campaign.
The BJP has given ticket to an Independent former BJDMlA, AshokPanigrahi. Party has used the last three months to create GP level and booth level organizations. It has five PRI-ZP representatives. It has focused on anti-establishment sentiments against BJD and weak Congress votes. The BJP has also given the Block responsibilities to its MlAs and former MlAs and has deployed cadres to oversee poll campaign in GP levels. Campaign of Union Minister Dharmedra Pradhan from time to time has instilled confidence among the BJP cadres and supporters and has pulled new cadres. The BJP has presence in all the three blocks and has conducted protest rallies.
The unique feature of the by-election is that it shall see for the first time the use of EVM with VVPAT machine. Another feature is presence of dissidents in all three major parties. last week campaign shall influence the poll trends further.