The objective of commemorating international days are not only to educate and spread awareness about the issue concerned but also to mobilise the political will and resources and celebrate the achievements of the humanity.
Pursuant to the spirits of international day celebrations, the World Population Day which is on July 11 remind us once again of the urgency for critical understanding and actions to deal with problemof population growth. The current Covid-19 situation has already given us the taste of the reality and surfaced the challenges in dealing with the health crisis by virtue of being the second most populated nation in the world.
Large population indeed offers benefits of economic growth if governed orderly and in turn asserts the power of a nation on global scale. On the downside the unregulated increase in population also means over and unequal consumption of resources which triggers plethora of crisis like poverty, epidemics, illiteracy, violence for resources and many more.
India with its sui generis democracy and multiple ideological hegemony has always faced challenges in managing its population efficiently. At the time of independence, India’s population was 340 millions which got doubled in the less than forty years of span and by the 2001 census it surpassed one billion.Today we are 1.3 billion people which is only 100 million less than that of Chinese population. An UN report has projected that by 2027 India will surpass China and become the world’s most populous country. But does this mean that our number will keep on skyrocketing like this and what does this unprecedented population growth mean for our future. Will it stimulate perilous conditions or pave the way for progress?
Luckily demographers have answered to these speculations. In the language of demography no population keeps on growing invariably rather it follows a trend of increase in population first and subsequently declines as a part of four- step process termed as demographic transition. In the first stage of demographic transition, many births and many deaths occur due to poor living conditions. As the living conditions improve, second stage is set leading to fewer deaths and population explosion. In third stage population explosion is countervailed by fall in fertility rate due to the trend of having fewer children and make way for the final stage where births and death rate stabilizes and rapid population growth comes to an end.
Most developed countries have made the transition while others are yet to make the leap towards final stage of the transition. India is in midway of this transition and according to UN report India’s population is expected to continue to grow, reaching an estimated 1.68 billion in the 2050s after which there will be downfall in the number of people. This mind-blogging projection is driven by the past and the current trends of fertility, mortality, age structure and migration.
Over the years, our country has added more number of people to the world than others even though our population is growing with the same rate as many other nations. In addition to this there is a dip in the fertility rate from an average of 6 children to 2.4 children per Indian women. Still we are home to over 1.3 billion people which is going to escalate to 1.68 billion by 2050 and surpass China in coming 10 years. So the next big question is that why our population is still growing?
The answer to this lies in understanding what population scientists describe as phenomena of population momentum. At present India is placed in the phases of rapid and modern population growth that is stage two of demographic transition when both child birth and mortality is being counteracted by decline in mortality due to improved health infrastructure leading to amplification of people and giving us a head start on population expansion in spite of growing with the global growth rate of over 1 per cent per year. In addition to this our population expansion started with more number of people especially with high share of women in the reproductive age bracket leading to population growth even if the fertility rate is falling. One can understand this paradox by comparing a big bank account with small one. Even if they float same rate of interest over the year, the big one will gain a lot more money than the small one.
Undoubtedly, population explosion poses a serious challenge in the progress and prosperity of any country by drastically impacting and creating burden on the natural resources to meet the need of the present population which may turn out to be unsustainable for distant future generations. If not handled properly, the unregulated amplification of people may lead to tragedy of poverty, unemployment and food insecurity. But on the brighter side this legend of poverty seems to be unrounded scaremongering that may not hold true. If invested strategically in terms of health and education the expanding demographic shifts also bring new opportunities and possibilities for transformation and empowerment of nations.
The surge in more adult people means more people to contribute in labour market, advancement in production, growth in GDP and GNP, strengthening the security of borders and ultimately prosperity of our country. This demographic dividend has benefitted many developed nations and it is time for the developing nation to reap the benefits.
So, the future of India’s population growth is not an apocalyptic prophecy, it is a promise.
(Dr Khurana is an Assistant Professor in Department of Anthropology & Deputy Director (I/C), Population Research Centre, Utkal University, Email: priyankakhurana09@gmail.com)