With the onset of October, which is often regarded as the month of cyclones in Odisha, two back-to-back low pressure areas are likely to form over the Bay of Bengal between October 8 and 14, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted in its North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis.
“Models are indicating development of a fresh low pressure area (LPA) during first half of week 2 (October 8-14) over west central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal and another LPA over east central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea during later part of week 2,” the IMD said. Both the systems are expected to move slightly northwestwards without any significant intensification, it added. Notably, the 1999 Super Cyclone, Cyclone Phailin (2013), Cyclone Hudhud (2014) and Cyclone Titli (2018) occurred in the month of October.
Besides, Numerical Weather Prediction models indicate establishment of westerly and northwesterly winds at lower and middle tropospheric levels over northwest India and development of lower level anti-cyclonic circulation over the region from October 5.Under its influence, drastic reduction in moisture and absence of rainfall over extreme northwestern parts of India is very likely.
Therefore, conditions are very likely to be favourable for commencement of withdrawal of southwest monsoon from some parts of northwest India from around October 6.