True to its reputation and going by the electoral statistics of the past few elections, Malwa-Nimar region of Madhya Pradesh in all likelihood would play decisive role in the formation of the next government in the state, not merely because the region sends the largest number of MlAs to the state assembly as compared to other regions but also because of the fact the party which scores over its rivals in the region, is voted to power.
The statistics of the past few assembly elections show that the party which took a lead from the region, has formed its government in the state. Going by the trends of previous elections, it has become amply clear that path to power in Madhya Pradesh starts from Malwa and Nimar which in the political parlance is being referred to as `Corridor of power’ in Madhya Pradesh.
If available trends and feedbacks from various constituencies are any indication, out of a total of 66 assembly seats in the region, there appears to be a neck to neck fight between the BJP and the Congress in majority of assembly constituencies in Malwa and Nimar.
Sources close to the BJP even have admitted to a tough fight between the BJP and the Congress candidates in majority of the constituencies.
Electoral history and voting trends of the region show that the party which rode to power in Madhya Pradesh in the subsequent elections had sent maximum elected representatives from the region.
Prior to 2008 Assembly elections, Malwa and Nimar regions had a total of 59 assembly seats which later increased up to 66 after delimitation of assembly constituencies.
Taking a look at the election results of the region between 1990 and 2008, the ruling BJP had won 46 assembly seats from the region in 1990, 48 in 2003. However, in 2008 assembly elections, the seats tally of the BJP declined to 41 due to decline in its support base in tribal areas of the region.
Compared to the BJP, the Congress from this region had won 30 seats in 1993, 42 seats in 1998.
However, unlike previous elections, both the BJP and the Congress are locked in an intense fight in the current elections.
A number of BJP candidates in their respective constituencies are confronting odds against them with issues of corruption and anti-incumbency weighing heavily against its sitting MlAs.
The BJP is facing its biggest worries from tribal districts of Dhar, Jhabua, Ratlam and Alirajpur where the party in the last elections had won from only four assembly seats out of 17.
The tribal regions of Malwa and Nimar which have traditionally remained a Congress bastion during strong anti-Congress wave in 2003 elections, for the first time had voted the BJP in large number, enabling the party to form the government in the state for the first time with a thumping majority. However, 2008 elections again saw a reversal of trend with the BJP winning only 4 out of 17 assembly seats.
Though both the BJP and the Congress in the current elections have tried its best by arranging election rallies of its tallest stalwarts like Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi and Narenda Modi to woo tribal voters in their favour, the moods of tribals and their voting preferences would emerge clear only on December 8 when the counting of votes takes place.