Like in other States of the country where the Congress has come to power, it is certain that the tally of the BJP would fall in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
The BJP’s defeat at the hands of the Congress in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan in Assembly elections December last year indicates that the party will find it difficult to repeat its 2014 performance of winning 62 out of 65 seats in these three States.
In Madhya Pradesh, the party had won 27 out of 29 seats while the Congress managed just two, with only senior leaders Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia holding their bastions in Chhindwara and Guna respectively. Later, Congress had wrested one more seat of Jhabua in by-election.
Political observers feel that the party’s tally could fall to around 16, a drop of 11 seats while the Congress’ tally could increase by the same number and go up to 13 in the state. In terms of vote share, the BJP and the Congress are evenly matched at close to 47 per cent.
The tally of 16 for the BJP is a reduction of one seat from the Assembly elections, in which the BJP was ahead in 17 Lok Sabha constituencies while the Congress was ahead in 12. It is strange that the Congress got more Assembly seats than the BJP but led in fewer Lok Sabha seats than the latter. In the assembly elections, the BJP won fewer seats but with higher margins, while the Congress won more seats but with thin margins.