India has significantly strengthened its ability to forecast cyclones and evacuate vulnerable populations, saving thousands of lives. However, successive cyclones Arnab and Murasu expose a critical gap in disaster management: protecting livelihoods, infrastructure and coastal economies must now become as important as preventing loss of life.
Within the span of about a week, the Bay of Bengal sent two cyclones crashing into India’s eastern coast. Though different in strength and reach, together they exposed a gap that India’s disaster management system can no longer ignore. The country has become remarkably good at seeing storms coming and moving people out of harm’s way. It is still far less capable of shielding what those people return to: their fields, boats, homes, roads and power lines.
A tale of two storms
Arnab took shape over the Bay of Bengal in late October 2026 and intensified into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm. By the evening of October 27, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) was recording sustained winds of 150-160 km/h, with gusts touching 180 km/h. The system crossed the coast on October 28 near Yanam, along the Narasapur-Kakinada stretch, carrying winds of 125-135 km/h and gusts of up to 150 km/h.
The rain did as much damage as the wind. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha were drenched, and Odisha bore the heaviest blow: Patrapur in Ganjam district reportedly received 546 mm of rain in a single day. Floods and landslides followed, flattening villages and wrecking crops, houses, roads and electricity networks. Preliminary assessments put crop damage in Andhra Pradesh at around 2.24 lakh hectares, and the state’s later estimate of losses reached Rs 4,764 crore.
Before the affected districts had found their feet, a second system was gathering strength. Murasu developed into a Severe Cyclonic Storm and made landfall near Ongole in southern Andhra Pradesh on November 3, with winds of 100-110 km/h and gusts of up to 120 km/h. Early reports showed more than 52,000 hectares of crops badly hit, along with damaged houses, fallen trees and toppled electricity poles. Timely warnings allowed thousands of people to be moved to safety, and the death toll was limited to four. Andhra Pradesh assessed its losses from Murasu at Rs 343 crore.
Together, the two storms show how back-to-back disasters compound one another when recovery from one shock is cut short by the next.
How far India has come
None of this obscures India’s real progress over two decades. The 1999 Odisha super cyclone, which killed thousands, was a turning point. Since then, the country has invested heavily in satellite surveillance, a network of Doppler Weather Radars, better forecasting models and stronger warning systems. IMD’s ability to predict where a cyclone will form, how it will travel and where it will make landfall has improved dramatically.
Equally important has been the institutional machinery that turns forecasts into action. The National Disaster Management Authority, the National Disaster Response Force, state disaster management authorities and district administrations now coordinate in ways that were unimaginable a generation ago. India has, in effect, moved from reacting to disasters to anticipating them. Yet Arnab and Murasu are a reminder that an evacuation, however efficient, is not the same thing as a disaster well managed.
The losses that outlast the storm
A cyclone’s toll is not measured only in lives. High winds, floodwater and torrential rain flatten standing crops, wreck fishing boats and damage homes, roads and communication lines. For a paddy farmer, a destroyed crop means an entire season’s income gone. For a fisherman, a smashed boat can mean months without earnings. When roads, power and markets fail, thousands more suffer.
Rebuilding is expensive and slow. Long after the clouds clear, communities can remain trapped in a cycle of debt and deprivation. This raises an uncomfortable question about how India judges success. If the only yardstick is the number of lives saved, the country is doing well. If livelihoods, infrastructure and economic assets are counted too, the picture is far less reassuring. The measure of success must widen.
When disasters arrive in pairs
The most striking lesson of these two cyclones is the difficulty of handling disasters that strike in quick succession. When Murasu arrived, the administration was still occupied with Arnab’s aftermath: distributing relief, restoring power, reopening roads, supplying drinking water and counting crop losses. Response teams, budgets and local communities were stretched before the second storm even made landfall. Some families displaced by Arnab may not yet have returned home when Murasu’s warning came.
Most disaster plans are written with a single event in mind. They need to be redesigned to account for consecutive hazards, where one emergency overlaps with recovery from another.
Climate risk and a more exposed coastline
Climate change adds another layer of uncertainty. Rising seas can make storm surges more destructive, warmer ocean waters can feed more energy into cyclones, and shifting atmospheric patterns may alter rainfall and storm behaviour. Still, two cyclones in a week do not by themselves prove that storms are becoming more frequent or more intense; such conclusions demand careful scientific study.
What is beyond dispute is that the coast has become more vulnerable. Rapid urbanisation, unchecked construction, the clearing of mangroves, the shrinking of wetlands and the growth of economic activity along the shoreline have all raised the stakes. A storm that once passed over sparsely populated land can now damage homes, factories, ports and highways worth thousands of crores.
From response to resilience
India must now graduate from a model built largely around response to one built around resilience. Six priorities stand out.
First, coastal districts need regular, detailed assessments of their exposure to cyclones, floods and storm surges. District plans should map vulnerable settlements, critical infrastructure and safe evacuation routes, and explicitly provide for successive disasters.
Second, infrastructure must be built to endure. Homes, hospitals, schools, roads, bridges, power grids and communication networks should be designed to withstand extreme weather rather than collapse under it.
Third, nature must be treated as infrastructure. Mangroves, coastal wetlands and sand dunes absorb storm surges and limit erosion and flooding. Restoring them is among the cheapest defences available.
Fourth, livelihood protection should sit at the heart of disaster management. Farmers, fishers and small traders need quick, targeted support to rebuild their productive capacity.
Fifth, early warnings should describe impact, not just trajectory. Communities need plain information about expected rainfall, likely storm surges and probable disruption to essential services, so they can protect property as well as lives.
Sixth, reconstruction should follow the principle of Build Back Better. Damaged houses, roads and public buildings should not simply be restored to their earlier condition but rebuilt to be safer and stronger than before.
The next milestone
The country has proven it can forecast cyclones accurately and evacuate people at scale. The next challenge is ensuring that those who survive a storm do not lose their homes and incomes in its wake.
Cyclones cannot be prevented, but their impact can be sharply reduced through scientific planning, resilient infrastructure, healthy coastal ecosystems and active community participation. The true test of disaster management lies not in the hours before landfall but in the months after it: in how quickly families rebuild, livelihoods return and local economies revive. Saving lives was the first milestone. Securing lives worth returning to must be the next.
Initial reports indicated that more than 52,000 hectares of crops were badly affected, and there was destruction of houses, trees, electricity posts and other infrastructure. Warnings and preparedness enabled the transfer of several thousand people to safer places, minimising the loss of lives. As many as four people died due to the cyclone, and it was assessed to have incurred losses worth Rs 343 crore in Andhra Pradesh.
The write is former Executive Director National Institute of Disaster Management, and Director, SAARC Disaster Management Centre; Views presented are personal.