A surge in the registration of young women voters show abortion rights would set the poll agenda
Mary Ziegler, the American legal historian, who closely follows the abortion debate in the US, in her latest book, ‘Dollars for Life: The Anti-Abortion Movement and the Fall of the Republican Establishment’ said that the abortion abolitionists considered the Roe reversal as a major achievement, but their ultimate goal is to achieve ‘a nationwide personhood protection to a fetus’.
Ziegler asserts that such a move would slowly drift the Republican Party and American politics to new extremes on the agenda of MAGA/Christian rights. After the SC’s June ruling, the veteran Republican and the former Vice-President, Mike Pence, called for ‘restoration of the sanctity of life to the centre of American law in every state’ and averred that ‘a national abortion ban is a profoundly more important issue than any short-term politics’.
Many political analysts fear that such a ‘call for restoration’ hinged on the newly-gained freedom to impose forced birth may lead to a ‘culture war’ in the US. A political-science professor at UCLA has opined that ‘attitudes about cultural change and American identity have already emerged as the principal point of separation between the parties’.
In the 2022 mid-terms, many political analysts predicted ‘a big red wave’ in the face of Biden’s lowering approval ratings. However, in the post-Dobbs scenario, earlier predictions of sweeping Republican gains have been believed to be ‘tempered’. A recent Pew Research Centre poll revealed that the share of voters who call abortion ‘very important’ rose from 43 to 56 per cent between March and August. A media tracker poll (CBS News) disclosed that more than 40 per cent of likely voters would support abortion rights, compared to just 16 per cent, who would oppose them, while, about 25 per cent of persuadable voters have been ‘tilting toward Democrats’. A recent opinion poll (Monmouth University) also found that nearly half the voters prefer Democrats in Congress, with 43 per cent favouring Republicans. Planned Parenthood, a nonprofit, has already announced a record $50 million to elect abortion rights supporters across the country in November, which, political analysts claim, will ‘add to the Democrats advantage’.
Besides, recent win in the Upstate New York, a highly competitive district, and also the resounding rejection of a constitutional amendment that would have allowed state lawmakers to further restrict abortion access, in a Republican stronghold like Kansas, where only 26 per cent of registered voters are Democrats, are being considered as ‘early signs that Democrats are likely to fare better than expected in the fall’.
The GOP, on the other hand, in a memo to the contestants in September, accepted that ‘the vast majority of voters disagree with the Supreme Court’s decision’, and urged them to ‘draw a contrast’ between their position on abortion, which includes exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother as against a ‘Democrat’s stand who supports abortion at any time for any reason’.
Republicans, rather, wanted to fight out the midterms on the issues of inflation, crime, immigration, etc. But, they have found it difficult to avoid the topic since Republican Sen. Lindsey O. Graham introduced a bill in September that would ban abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy nationwide.
Many GOP strategists consider ‘it is an absolute disaster’, while some others believe their best message is ‘leave it to the states’. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called the bill the ‘latest, clearest signal of extreme MAGA Republicans’ intent to criminalise women’s health freedom in all 50 states and arrest doctors for providing basic care’.
In terms of voter’s registration also there was a backlash against the SC’s Dobbs decision. In states where abortion rights are under threat, there is a significant upsurge in under-25 registration, particularly among young women, according to political data analysts (TargetSmart). The highest gender gap in voter’s registration was observed in Kansas, which recently faced a ballot initiative on abortion restrictions. Almost in every state, the number of the newly registered under-25 voters tende to be ‘even more Democratic’.
In Pennsylvania, the number of newly registered women voters went up from 51 per cent to nearly 65 per cent, while 62 per cent of them signed up as Democrats, which was early this year only 46 per cent.
Now, as large turn outs of people in Washington and elsewhere in rallies across the country carry protest signs like ‘Abort the court’, ‘Abortion justice voter’, ‘My body my choice’, etc., the message is loud and clear that voters are to back candidates who support abortion rights. Though mid-terms typically don’t favour the party in power, this year Democrats definitely have an edge.
(The author is former Director General, Doordarshan, All India Radio)