At best, the Aam Aadmi Party may bruise BJP, at worst sear Congress. A good showing will see AAP’s stock soaring
Abitter battle lies ahead as the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) brace to take on Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in its citadel of Gujarat this state Assembly election which is due in December.
For the Prime Minister, Gujarat must be convincingly retained if the 2024 electoral war for the right to rule India has to be waged handicap-free for a third stint. The Congress, which has been steadily losing ground since Modi took charge in 2001, must hold its consolidated Opposition space as a brash-bubbly challenger AAP seeks to muscle into both menacingly.
AAP, the third angle of this emerging triangular contest, has nothing to lose for it was nil in 2017. At best, it may bruise the BJP, at worst sear the Congress. A good showing, on the other hand, will see its stock soaring. Thus the Gujarat poll paradigm is pregnant with possibilities and stocked with probabilities.
The Election Commission has completed its due diligence through overlapping visits and is into the final assessment of preparedness. Speculation is rife that the elections to Gujarat as well as Himachal Pradesh may be declared in the middle of the month bringing the model code of conduct into force. This will bring to an end the rash of foundation stone laying ceremonies and inaugurations by the ruling BJP and mouth-watering promises by the respective rivals.
The BJP has been in the saddle in Gujarat for 27 years, barring a 17-month stint wherein party rebel Shankersinh Vaghela’s splinter held fort with Congress support.
Now considered the home state of the Prime Minister and his Home Minister Amit Shah, the two cannot afford to take any chances. Thus, they have one foot permanently pegged in their realm, enmeshed in all manner of inaugurations and dedications from flyovers to foot bridges. More so, after Arvind Kejriwal and his AAP turned the spotlight full scale on their electoral challenge.
The Congress is waking up to the harsh reality of a triangular fight as the AAP seeks to muscle its way into Gujarat. With Rahul Gandhi pre-occupied with the Bharat Jodo Yatra, the likelihood of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra taking his place in helming the Congress challenge is being speculated in party circles, though no official confirmation is available.
A late starter in comparison to the Prime Minister and Arvind Kejriwal, Rahul Gandhi arrived in Ahmedabad on September 5 to flag off the Congress election campaign, addressing a gathering of over 50,000 booth level workers.
Party leaders are emphatic that Rahul Gandhi still remains a strong crowd puller for the party. Though the Kanyakumari-Kashmir Bharat Jodo Yatra will give the state a miss, the traction that it has been gaining in demonstrated mass support is expected to do good. Gujarat Congress spokesperson Manish Doshi said that the poll-bound state has been knowingly left out of the mass-contact programme which has a sacred national objective. “Electioneering is a different ball-game altogether and we are up to it,” he added, though not confirming whether Priyanka Gandhi will take his place, as widely speculated here.
The Congress is not leaving anything to chance. Party general secretary KC Venugopal was in Ahmedabad on August 24 for a review of the preparedness with state leaders and senior observer Ashok Gehlot and Gujarat in-charge Raghu Sharma.
The Congress has named seven working presidents, appointed in-charges from Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Chhatisgarh to oversee each one of the 26 parliamentary constituencies in the state, and assigned four other leaders to assist Sharma with Gehlot overseeing things. The Rajasthan Chief Minister was the Gujarat in-charge in the 2017 state Assembly elections and is well conversant with make or break nuances.
According to present Gujarat in-charge Raghu Sharma, the Congress is targeting 125 of the total 182 seats but does not propose to announce a chief ministerial candidate. “We shall fight collectively,” he adds.
Party national spokesperson Shaktisinh Gohil holds firm that the main contest is between the two traditional combatants, and AAP will not add up to much because a third party has never succeeded in Gujarat. Gohil has a point, since such veteran leaders like Chimanbhai Patel (Kisan Mazdoor Lok Paksha), Shankersinh Vaghela (Rashtriya Janata Party, Jan Vikalp and this time the Prajashakti Democratic Party), and veteran late Keshubhai Patel (Gujarat Parivartan Party) have all come a cropper.
However, the AAP’s aggressive forays and the response it is beginning to elicit seem to be making enough dent for BJP to take the threat seriously. The Prime Minister is personally overseeing things and on his last two visits to the state on August 27 and September 29 had detailed discussions with those helming the party’s election affairs.
The main reason for both the BJP and the AAP targeting the Congress is that the principal Opposition party had picked up 30 of the total 54 seats in Saurashtra-Kutch region, helping it bag a creditable 78 seats while bringing the BJP to 99 seats in a 182-member House, the lowest after Modi took over as chief minister in 2001. In 2012 the BJP had bagged 35 seats in Saurashtra-Kutch but was down to 23 in 2017 with one going to others.
Whether the Opposition votes get divided and benefit the BJP, or are shared between the Congress and AAP, shall become clearer as the poll nears. In north Gujarat both the BJP and the Congress had maintained their previous seat share in 2017 with 32 and 21 seats, respectively. In south Gujarat, the BJP had faced a marginal loss winning 25 of 35 seats compared to 28 in 2012, while the Congress improved its seat share from 6 to 10.
In central Gujarat, the BJP scored with 25 of 40 seats, while the Congress was down by 5 to 13 seats in 2017. The last elections were held in the shadow of the Patidar unrest and the Congress had emerged as a beneficiary at the polls. This factor does not seem to be at play in 2022 but rising prices and agrarian dissatisfaction is evident in rural areas which the BJP is hopeful of leveling up with what it sees as its urban popularity.
If the AAP has a sackful of sops that include 300 units of free electricity every month, free education in government schools and free medical care in government hospitals, unemployment allowance, a Rs 1,000 per month allowance to women, the Congress has announced all this and more. It includes LPG cylinders for Rs 500, Rs 4 lakh compensation for Covid victims and loan waivers up to Rs 3 lakh for farmers. How much of this works remains to be seen but the Congress will need to strain a lot harder to achieve its last best.
(The author is a senior journalist)