The paradigm shift in America's Afghan policy provides India an opportunity to change the status quo on the ground as well as its policy
The last year witnessed a lot of developments in Afghanistan.On February 29 the Afghan insurgent group Taliban signed a peace accord with the United States (US) Government under which all American troops will have to leave the country by May 2021 and, in return, the Taliban has promised to not allow the South Asian nation to be used as a safe haven by the jihadist groups. This agreement raised hopes of bringing permanent peace in the war-torn country devastated by sectarian strife, geopolitical tussle and civil war. However, one year down the line, the hope of the Afghan people to see the light at the end of the tunnel has proved to be a mere façade.
Violence has increased manifold, with almost daily bomb blasts, assassinations, attacks on military targets and killing of innocent civilians. The Afghan Government is helpless and unable to cope with the situation and is apparently on the verge of a collapse.The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) has bolstered its strength and displayed it by striking at the military and civilian areas located in the heart of the Capital Kabul.
The Joe Biden Administration has announced a fundamental shift in the policy with respect to Afghanistan. It looks as if it is trying to change the status quo on the ground. The subtle action of reviewing the peace deal in Afghanistan is the sign of a new policy. The US is clearly concerned with the deteriorating law and order in the South Asian nation as well as the growing might of the Islamic State of ISIS -Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) which has challenged the legitimacy of both the Afghan Government and the Taliban. If these indications are anything to go by, the new American dispensation can follow a three pronged approach—First, recommit US troops in massive numbers to eliminate the menace of insurgency by the Taliban and Haqqani network; at the same time the Americans can impart more training to the Afghan troops and, if necessary, to the ordinary citizens in the non-Taliban areas to bolster their defence against the Islamist militants. Second, intensify reconnaissance warfare against the militants by ordering an increase in the number of drones and other precision strikes to eliminate potential militant hideouts which can pose a threat to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) troops.
Third, the fact that the killers of the Wall Street journalist Daniel Pearl were acquitted by the Pakistani Supreme Court is a glaring example of the travesty of justice on the part of Pakistan’s judicial system. The US President has ordered the termination of all arms transfer to Saudi Arabia for its gruesome military campaign in Yemen. This could be an indication that the US is likely to base its foreign policy with the promotion of human rights like the Carter administration; Pakistan could be in trouble over this stance. Fourth, increasing fiscal support for the already cash-strapped Afghan Government but, at the same time, demanding accountability for the earlier help that they received albeit in a surreptitious manner.
This paradigm shift in America’s Afghan policy provides New Delhi an opportunity to change the status quo on the ground. Avinash Paliwal in his book “My Enemy’s Enemy” has argued that since 2001 India has provided more than $3 billion in aid and developmental projects to Afghanistan ,as a result of which India has earned the goodwill of ordinary Afghans. India should not miss the opportunity to change the situation in its neighbourhood. New Delhi needs to take some steps which include deploying troops on the ground as a part of the UN peacekeeping missions as India has gained reputation across the world for its endeavour to bring peace to war-torn areas, be it during the Yugoslavian civil war or in war-ravaged Iraq. India needs to increase its commitment with respect to troop deployments to ensure peace in Afghanistan while not taking sides in the war.India also needs to change its policy with regard to the engagement with Taliban, instead of recognising the militants India must provide tacit support allowing the US to make use of the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) for the replenishment of its troops.
India can also conduct a few precision strikes against Islamist militant targets, although it would constitute a violation of Afghan sovereignty but India needs to do this in the larger context of protecting its own homeland and ordinary Afghans from the clutches of the Haqqani network, ISIS and others. India needs to also bring Pakistan to justice, it is high time that the international community especially China stop supporting the State sponsored terrorism and unanimously impose punitive sanctions under the ambit of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).
New Delhi should not waste this opportunity, because bringing peace to Afghanistan will not only help India in winning the great game in the terror-ravaged South Asian nation but will also brighten New Delhi’s prospects in a country which has vast untapped reserves of natural resources . As Sun Tzu famously observed: “let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move fall like a thunderbolt”.
The writer is a journalist and columnist.The views expressed are personal.