World powers are eyeing the Arctic corridor as a vital link in a new era of global shipping. With India aligning with the NSR through the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a new network is taking shape — one that may reshape global trade, and redefine the geopolitical map
Rising global temperatures have created a major new trade opportunity: the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Interest in the NSR stems from geopolitical, economic, environmental, and cultural factors. Its growing cargo traffic and infrastructure are boosting its strategic, economic, and logistics significance.
Addressing the participants of the 6th International Arctic Forum, “The Arctic: Territory of Dialogue”, which took place on 26–27 March in Murmansk, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that one of our key priorities for the development of the Arctic is the improvement of people’s quality of life. He stressed that, to this end, it is vital to improve the region’s transport network, including the NSR.
In 2018, the Russian Government appointed Rosatom the Northern Sea Route infrastructure operator. This logistics corridor is being developed due to the cargo shipping organised on a regular basis, the construction of new nuclear icebreakers, and the modernisation of the relevant infrastructure. Climate change is unlocking new opportunities for Arctic development.
Countries like China and India are showing renewed interest in this remote region, thanks to sustained growth and a shared view of the NSR as a crucial maritime corridor. As the shortest route between Western Eurasia and Asia–Pacific, the NSR can significantly reduce travel time.The NSR is also rich in natural resources.
According to the US Geological Survey, the Arctic holds 13 per cent of undiscovered oil and 30 per cent of undiscovered gas reserves. The global push for decarbonisation encourages a shift to a “green economy” and the search for eco-friendly energy sources. Hydrogen and nuclear technologies are key options. Palladium, required for hydrogen production, is abundantly found in the Arctic, which also contains rare earths like lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, and graphite. These are critical for supporting the world’s transition to cleaner energy and reducing dependence on fossil fuels.
The Russian Arctic is not only strategic but also offers major economic potential. Besides mineral and raw material potential, it poses extensive resources of hydrocarbon raw materials, ores, and coal, as well as 40 per cent of global palladium production.
This makes it vital for the global shift towards renewable energy, aligning with the IMO’s 2050 net-zero target. While climate change has facilitated easier access to this route by reducing ice coverage, the NSR itself presents opportunities for emission reduction. It aligns with the International Maritime Organisation’s goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, as shorter travel distances significantly reduce carbon emissions from shipping. As traditional maritime routes like the Suez Canal experience congestion and disruptions, the NSR emerges as a critical “highway of the seas”, promising greater supply chain efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and optimisation. Furthermore, global carbon markets such as the EU Emissions Trading System could enable NSR users to financially capitalise on their reduced emissions, enhancing the route’s economic appeal.
Though future navigation may become simpler as ice recedes, icebreakers remain essential today. Nuclear-powered vessels, which operate up to seven years without refuelling, ensure safe year-round passage. The use of nuclear energy further enhances the NSR’s sustainability profile by minimising operational emissions.
INSTC as an Alternative
The current geopolitical landscape is characterised by significant turmoil, particularly illustrated by the recent Houthi missile strikes, which have resulted in a nearly 50 per cent decline in vessel traffic through the Red Sea. Consequently, many maritime operators have opted to reroute their vessels via the Cape of Good Hope, a course that entails a longer duration and increased expenses. In this environment, the 7,200 km International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which connects India, Iran, Russia, and Europe, has emerged as a strategic favourable alternative.
The INSTC seeks to establish a direct link between Mumbai Port and St Petersburg through Chabahar and Baku. Furthermore, new initiatives such as the International Multimodal Transport and Economic Corridor (IMEC), proposed during the G20 Summit in Delhi, further highlight the global search for secure, efficient, and resilient transport routes.
INSTC to NSR Vessel Traffic Emerging Profile
These corridors link the Indian Ocean with St. Petersburg and other parts of Europe, creating strong synergy with the NSR. Vessel traffic along the NSR is steadily increasing, offering a viable alternative to traditional routes. In 2024, the NSR handled a record 37.9 million tonnes of cargo, an increase of 1.6 million tonnes from 2023. Additionally, over 90 transits transported 3 million tonnes of cargo, marking a 150 per cent annual increase. This trend signifies a safer and more direct shipping route between Asia and Europe. This growth highlights that a safer, faster, and more direct trade route between Asia and Europe is firmly taking shape.
India–Russia Partnership in INSTC & NSR
The INSTC is a key India–Russia initiative benefiting several ports and cities. Integrating the Northern Sea Route (NSR) into this network can help India meet growing energy and commodity needs, including coal, LNG, fertilisers, and container cargo. Indian PSUs like ONGC already hold stakes in oil and gas assets in Sakhalin and Tomsk. A bilateral working group is exploring Arctic cargo transit, joint shipbuilding, and training Indian sailors in polar navigation.
India is particularly focused on the NSR and the Eastern Maritime Corridor. A Memorandum of Understanding between Chennai and Vladivostok on “Smart Port Cooperation” is also underway. With bilateral trade rising from USD 7.5 billion to USD 65 billion in seven years, these maritime links are now vital.
Learnings Ahead
Rising geopolitical volatility has deepened India–Russia ties into a robust, multi-sectoral partnership. As the INSTC, NSR, and the Eastern Maritime Corridor become operational, they may pave the way for a multi-ocean circular transport network spanning the Indian Ocean, the Arctic Sea, and the wider Indo–Pacific region. Such an expansion could redefine global shipping routes, enhance energy security, and foster new trade opportunities for all stakeholders involved.
(The writer is Professor of International Relations, Department of Humanities & Social Sciences, BITS Pilani KK Birla Goa Campus; Distinguished Fellow in Political Economy, Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR), India. Views are personal)