The US and China will be embroiled in conflict and India will join the ranks of developed countries
In my opinion the next stage in world history will be marked by two main events: The conflict between the US and China and India joining the ranks of developed countries. Regarding the first, there are two superpowers in the world today, the US and China. The difference between the two is that China is aggressive and expanding, while the US is on the defensive. Hence, the Chinese can be compared to Nazi imperialists in the 1930s and early 1940s, while the US can be compared to the British and French, who were on the defensive. At that time the real danger to the world was Nazi Germany, not the British or French. Today the Chinese, with their huge $3.2 trillion foreign exchange reserve hungrily looking for new markets, raw materials and avenues for investment worldwide, are the real danger to world peace, like Hitler’s imperialism. The main check to the Chinese is the US. Therefore, they are bound to clash. However, for now, the conflict will not take the form of an open war between the two in view of the fact that both have nuclear weapons. But limited conflicts may take place, in various forms like tariff wars and in different places like the South China Sea incidents. As regards the second, in today’s age there are really two worlds, one of the developed countries (like North America, Europe, Japan, Australia and China) and the world of the underdeveloped nations (like India and the other countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America). India is on the verge of smashing its way into the ranks of the developed countries.
Before the Industrial Revolution, which began in England in the beginning of the 18th century and then spread everywhere, there were feudal agricultural societies everywhere. The feudal mode of production was so backward that very little wealth could be generated by it. Consequently only a handful of people (kings and aristocrats) could be rich while the rest (over 95 per cent) had to remain poor.
This situation changed drastically after the Industrial Revolution. Now modern industry is so powerful and so big that enough wealth can be generated by it to give a decent life to everyone. Yet, over 75 per cent of the people of the world are poor, particularly in underdeveloped countries. The objective of the underdeveloped countries must be to become developed nations and, therefore, the 21st century and the next stage of history will be characterised as a period of struggle by the people of underdeveloped countries to make this historical transformation. Otherwise they can never escape poverty, unemployment, hunger, lack of healthcare and other evils. There are powerful forces which, for their own vested interests, oppose this historical transformation, so it will not be easy but it must be done by patriots.
India will lead the underdeveloped countries in this process, because it is the most developed of all of them and is on the verge of smashing its way into the ranks of developed nations. India has a huge pool of technical talent with thousands of bright engineers, technicians and scientists (Indians are largely manning Silicon Valley in California and are professors in the science, engineering and mathematics departments in many American universities) and immense natural resources.
However, Indians lacked a genuinely patriotic and modern political leadership and were till now divided on the basis of feudal concepts like caste and religion. This was blocking their advance. The ongoing farmers’ agitation has changed this to a large extent. Indians are shunning divisive politics and politicians and are united like never before. This stir has come as the spark that will transform India into a developed country.
(The writer is a former judge of the Supreme Court of India. The views expressed are personal.)