Shortage of weapons, defence equipment, manpower and missiles is a big setback to Russia
Russia has acknowledged for the first time that it doesn’t have enough equipment for mobilised soldiers in its war against Ukraine, especially the missiles. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on October 26 that there are issues with equipment for the hundreds of thousands of men being sent to fight in Ukraine under President Vladimi Putin’s partial mobilisation decree.
Ukrainian servicemen checked their weapons at a position on the frontline in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, on October 24, 2022, amid Russian invasion of Ukraine. Peskov said a newly-formed council created by Putin is working on resolving problems with equipment. “Vigorous measures taken to rectify the situation are already yielding the first positive results,” he said.
Putin on October 25 held the first official meeting of his coordinating council for military supply and logistics. It was created on October 21, and seeks to ensure that his military has adequate supplies in the war. According to the Kremlin’s website, the council was established “to meet any needs that arise during the course of the special military operation”. That includes supplies and repair of armament, military and special equipment, materials, medical and sanitary services, maintenance and other activities, and logistics, according to Russian media.
Putin appointed Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin as the council’s head, while Dmitry Grigorenko, a deputy prime minister and chief of the government staff, and Manturov, will act as Mishustin’s deputies. The council is expected to report to Putin weekly.
Putin said on October 14 that his “partial mobilisation” was nearly complete, and that 222,000 troops had been drafted so far. Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on September 21 that Russia would be targeting 300,000 reservists and ex-military personnel with “certain military specialties and relevant experience”. Alexander Å tupun, spokesperson for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said on October 7 that Putin’s troops are struggling to obtain equipment and armor. “There are significant problems with the material support of the mobilization measures carried out by the military leadership of the Russian Federation. Thus, at the beginning of October, of the 8,000 [mobilized] persons staying at the base of the Novosibirsk Higher Command School, no more than half were provided with military uniforms,” Å tupun said.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) said that it intercepted a Russian soldier’s phone conversation in which he complained about a lack of equipment and weapons, while videos on Russian social networks have shown conscripted men with rusty weapons. The shortage of missiles is a crippling problem for Russia, though could soon be solved by the expected delivery of short-to-medium-range missiles from Iran. The Russian Iskander missiles are not being regularly manufactured by Russia because of its serious involvement in the war against Ukraine.
The Iskander short-range ballistic missile system was developed in the 1980s and has been in use by the Russian military since. The missile system is capable of firing a number of conventional warheads and has been used during the Ukraine conflict to fire cluster munitions. It is also capable of firing nuclear warheads. Missiles launched by the system can travel up to 500 km.
Iskander missiles can be launched in 16 minutes from a mobile launcher, and a second missile can be launched within less than a minute. A dwindling supply of these rockets will make it significantly harder for Russia to continue its campaign of missile strikes on civilian infrastructure in major cities across Ukraine.
Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat described how the Russian military has changed its targets to minimize the loss of any remaining missiles. “The enemy is facing severe shortages of Iskander missiles. They’ve already used up their core stocks,” Ihnat said. “We see that the enemy is no longer interested in military targets, in troops or other strategic sites,” said Ihnat, adding that Russia is also turning to North Korea for more missiles.
Intelligence directorate chief Kyrylo Budanov and Ukrainian Pravda revealed that just 13 per cent of Russia’s Iskander missiles were left. “About 13 per cent remains for Iskanders, about 43 per cent for Kalibr-PL, Kalibr-NK missiles, and about 45 per cent for Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles. It is generally very dangerous to fall below 30 per cent, because it already goes to NZ [intact reserve],” Budanov said.
Iran reportedly promised to send surface-to-surface missiles to Iran, as well as more drones earlier this month. A deal is understood to have been agreed on October 6. Shortage of weapons, defence equipment, manpower and missiles is a big setback to Russia that may force Putin to declare ceasefire in Ukraine.
(The author is a retired professor of international trade)