The planet is warming and as the evaporation from the surfaces of water bodies increases, so does the water-holding capacity of the warm air. Apart from plundering nature in the Himalayas, we must restrict further warming of the planet by transitioning away from fossil fuel consumption
While the IMD announced the retreat of the north-east monsoon of the season, Dehradun and Mandi experienced massive cloudbursts killing dozens of people and damaging buildings, roads and bridges. The hill town of Mussoorie remained cut off from Dehradun for over 48 hours. This monsoon, from Kullu to Kalimpong, Kishtwar to Karnaprayag, landslides, flash floods and ground subsidence sharpened the focus on how India’s expanding infrastructure, like highways, tunnels, ropeways, and hydropower dams, is affecting the fragile Himalayan terrains.
Earlier, on 5th August, three dozen buildings of Dharali village near Gangotri in Uttarkashi were flattened in a flash flood within 20 seconds. The mudslide had hit an Army unit around 7 km downstream at Harshil, too. A massive mass of water and slush hit the structures — hotels, homestays, guesthouses and houses — with enough energy to flatten them. Though Dharali received 33 mm of rain in 24 hours, heavy precipitation in the upper hill ranges/catchments brought down a heavy mass of slush and water. The average altitudinal difference between the place of such precipitation and Dharali is one km, and even 1000 tonnes of water and slush through this fall generates 10 gigajoules of energy, enough to flatten any structure on its way. The energy can be calculated using a simple physics formula of mass × acceleration due to gravity × altitudinal difference.
Devbhumi has seen frequent cloudbursts in the recent past — the Kedarnath tragedy that claimed nearly 3000 lives in 2013, the unprecedented level of debris flow in Rishiganga and Dhauliganga in 2021 that killed over 200 workers stuck in the under-construction Tapovan-Vishnugad hydropower project, the havoc caused in Joshimath in 2023 and many more chilling reminders.
The Char Dham all-weather road widening project passes through the Bhagirathi Eco-Sensitive Zone (BESZ). An area of 4157 sq km between Gangotri and Uttarkashi town, notified as BESZ is for the preservation of the river’s ecology and watershed near its origin. In violation of BESZ protection norms, multistorey buildings and hotels are constructed in Maneri and Jamak villages near Uttarkashi on the bank of the river Ganga. The scrutiny committee of BESZ has found that the valley’s slopes are unstable and suggested an alternate design. The recent catastrophe is exactly as predicted by experts. The Uttarkashi-Gangotri NH widening project involves the felling of 13,000 trees in BESZ. There are 238 glaciers in BESZ and climate change is accelerating their retreat. Six thousand deodar trees in the stretch connecting Jhala and Gangotri have already been cut down and another 6000 are in the pipeline to face the axe. Besides tourism, the stated purpose of the wide roads is to augment defence supplies to the China border. Nevertheless, the entire Char Dham project should have been considered as one project of nearly 900 km of widening and in that scenario, an Environmental Impact Assessment could not have been avoided. Obtaining forest clearances on a piecemeal basis should also have been avoided, so that the trees axed/proposed to be axed are available in one place and the issue can be considered in totality.
The Supreme Court recently expressed concern over uncontrolled constructions and the inflow of tourists in Himachal Pradesh, saying that the day is not far off when the state will vanish from the map of the country. Revenue earning should not be the only criterion. The death of more than 300 people since 20th June in Himachal Pradesh due to flooding and landslides led to the state suspending any new construction without prior approval.
J&K also had its share of tragedy in the season; landslides and flooding killed 46 pilgrims, injuring over 100, while another 100 went missing at Chishoti (90 km from Kishtwar). Several structures and vehicles were washed away in the flash flood. Pilgrims trek 8.5 km from Chishoti to the Machail Mata shrine. The yatra that commenced on 25th July was suspended after the tragedy. The camp set up for the pilgrims, including the community kitchen, was in the flood plain of the stream, and all structures, along with people, were completely washed away. In a warming world, when cloudbursts and incessant rains are frequent and destructive, should the camp be set up in the floodplains of rivers and streams? A week later, flooding and landslides killed fifty people in Katra and the Mata Vaishno Devi shrine remained closed for pilgrims for 22 days.
Later, Punjab saw one of the worst floods in living memory. Two thousand three hundred villages in all 23 districts of the state were inundated, inflicting severe damage to roads, buildings, schools, hospitals and, most importantly, agricultural crops. Nearly one hundred persons perished in the flood and the cost of reconstruction — `12,000 crores — is the initial assessment, which is likely to go up in subsequent assessments when the flood recedes. The World Meteorological Department in a recent report has said, “The global water cycle has become extremely erratic and extreme with wild swings between droughts and floods, spelling big trouble for economies and societies.” While cloudbursts, flooding and landslides have caused havoc in Pakistan, India, Japan, China, Indonesia and many other South East Asian countries, the heatwaves and wildfires have engulfed European nations, mainly Spain, Portugal, Italy, Turkey, France etc. and even the US. A landslide wiped out a village in Sudan’s Darfur, killing more than 1000 people.
The sudden stratospheric warming causes an Arctic jet stream collapse, resulting in the weakening and disruption of the Polar Vortex. This disruption allows frigid Arctic air to spill southward, causing cold outbreaks in the mid-latitude region, keeping the Arctic region warmer than average. In addition, Tropospheric Rossby Waves also propagate upwards into the stratosphere, causing the jet stream to break down. The ridges of the wavy jet stream push warm air northwards. A collapsing jet stream allows persistent high-pressure systems to bring extreme heat and drought in one region, and a ‘trough’ with a low-pressure system to bring torrential rains. This explains the heatwaves and wildfires in Europe and North America and extreme wet weather in India.
Westerly jet streams are fast-flowing air currents that blow from west to east. They are driven by the Earth’s rotation and the temperature gradient between the poles and tropics. They bring western disturbances i.e. storms from the Mediterranean into northern India, causing rain and snow. During this year’s monsoon season, the IMD repeatedly pointed out that there had been interferences between the westerly and the north-east monsoon, which have provided more favourable conditions for rainfall. The planet is warming and the evaporation from the surfaces of water bodies increases, as does the water-holding capacity of the warm air. Thus, an increased quantity of water is available in the form of clouds in the atmosphere. Whenever the conditions are favourable, such a huge quantity is dumped on the surface of the earth, which is understood as a cloudburst.
The Himalayas are younger mountains compared to mountains in central Indian landscapes and the Western Ghats and are more fragile and vulnerable to erosion and landslides. Streams and rivers can even change course and bring more surprises. The abrupt swelling of the Kheerganga river in Uttarkashi and its changing course along the path it had followed a hundred years ago led to the washing away of all structures along with humans. All the old courses of the river should be considered as flood plains and can at most be used for agriculture. No permanent structures, roads and bridges should be permitted in such areas. Apart from plundering nature in the Himalayas, we must restrict further warming of the planet by transitioning away from fossil fuel consumption.
The writer is retired Head of Karnataka Forest Force and presently teaches Economics in Karnataka Forest Academy