Germany’s return to realpolitik augurs well for India as it emerges as a pivot of the aggressive counter-balancing act in the region together with the US, Japan and Australia
Even as the world is grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitics is undergoing a seismic shift. The Indo-Pacific region, which accounts for almost 40 per cent of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), has emerged as the epicentre of the “New Great Game,” especially between the US and China, for influence. The rule-based international order is being contested in the Indo-Pacific reportedly by none other than a UN Security Council (UNSC) member, the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Speaking at the Munich Security Conference on February 14, the German Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said, “…(China) is selective in accepting international law only where it does not run counter to its own interests. Its actions in the South China Sea are unsettling the neighbours in the region.”
Beijing’s constant hammering on the existing global order has caused alarm in the US and among its allies. Compared to China, India has been endorsing the prevalence of a rule-based world order in the Indo-Pacific region. Delineating New Delhi’s vision for the region, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue on June 1, 2018, said, “India stands for an open and stable international trade regime. We will also support a rule-based, open, balanced and stable trade environment in the Indo-Pacific Region...”
Re-ordering the world: After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, what emerged was a unipolar world order dominated by the US. It was believed that post-1991, the emergence of the US as the sole world power would expedite the restoration of global peace, security and stability and strengthen Pax Americana.
That is, the post-World War-II international order shaped and maintained by the US employing its overwhelming might. However, instead of growing in strength, Pax Americana has been fraying since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The strategic space ceded in the Indo-Pacific by the US, thanks to its “America First” policy, has been occupied by regional powers, thus turning it into a multi-polar region and the centre of a major geopolitical tussle for dominance. The fear among the world powers is that if the rules of the international order are disobeyed and disowned, the already fragile global form might collapse. What would happen next? A chaos resulting out of world disorder? Or a global re-order leading to resuscitation of peace and security?
Wary of the consequences that might ensue, India has been championing for a world based on a new global security architecture supported by multi-lateralism and mutual cooperation. During his recent visit to Russia, in a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation on September 4, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh declared New Delhi is committed to this as it will “be open, transparent, inclusive, rules-based and anchored in international laws.” Earlier in May, in his address to the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) countries, Modi had appealed, “In the post-Corona world, we need a new template of globalisation, based on fairness, equality, and humanity. We need international institutions that are more representative of today’s world.”
Indo-US partnership: In recent years, India has come strategically closer to the US and its allies to contain China through diplomatic and military means. The Indian Navy’s participation in the Malabar naval exercise led by the US Navy is one such example of the growing partnership between the two nations.
But it has not come to terms with the “America First” policy. Unlike Washington DC, New Delhi has been a proponent of multi-lateralism to promote peace and security in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. And that is why it is treading a fine line in the region by not squarely aligning with the US in its balancing act, making no explicit reference to China and opposing Australia’s entry into the Malabar naval exercise.
However, amid the growing border tension with China, India may “aggressively” pursue the Indo-Pacific balancing act together with the US, Japan and Australia. Though so far New Delhi has opposed Australia’s entry into the Malabar exercise, it might consider inviting it to the next one. This would strengthen the Quad (the US, India, Australia and Japan strategic partnership) further and probably make it anti-China. In 2015, Japan had already been elevated as a permanent member of the Malabar exercise group.
China as a sea power: In his book Prisoners of Geography, Tim Marshall notes, “Until now China has never been a naval power…and it was rarely ideologically expansive…It was always a land power with a lot of land and a lot of people.” However, Beijing now harbours ambitions of becoming a global power and setting the international rules on its own terms. To fulfil its ambitions, it simply follows in the US’ footsteps to gain control over the seas.
It has already taken measures to dominate the South China Sea (SCS) and the Indian Ocean. Beijing is already making efforts to set up an Air Defence Identification Zone in the SCS and develop a Blue Water navy to defend its sea controls. Tim Marshall further adds, “China…intends to become a two ocean power (Pacific and Indian). To achieve this, China is investing in deep-water ports in Myanmar, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka…”
The great American naval strategist of the 19th century, Alfred Mahan, once said, “Whoever rules the waves, rules the world.” His naval strategy finds supreme place in China pursuing its strategic ends. Just like other global powers, Beijing, too is Mahanian, probably with Maoist tactics. China is expanding its sea controls in a piecemeal manner, mouthful by mouthful, a typical Maoist strategy to wipe out enemy forces one by one. Mao asserted, “In war, battles can only be fought one by one and the enemy forces can only be destroyed one by one.” Tacticisation of strategy is doomed to fail against China’s well-designed strategy of piecemeal expansion in the Indo-Pacific region. Only a coherent grand containment strategy can counter Beijing’s expansionism in the region.
India as the pivot State: Given the expansionist agenda of China in the Indo-Pacific and beyond, countries in the region are forming a strategic partnership to contain it. The success of the alliance, however, depends on how India responds to the emerging geopolitics in the region. Can New Delhi play a pivotal role in arresting Beijing’s growing influence? Does its geographic position allow for that?
Quoting naval strategist Alfred Mahan, Robert Kaplan writes in his book The Revenge of Geography, “Mahan thought that instead of the Heartland of Eurasia being the geographical pivot of empires, it was conversely the Indian and Pacific oceans that constituted the hinges of geopolitical destiny.” Mahan sees India’s location in the centre of the Indian Ocean littoral, with the Himalayas protecting its rear flanks, as critical for the seaward penetration of China, adds Kaplan. This explains precisely the strategic significance of India’s geography in regional geopolitics, making it a pivot of the Indo-Pacific. Kaplan has rightly predicted, “As the US and China become great power rivals, the direction in which India tilts could determine the course of geopolitics in Eurasia in the 21st century. India, in other words, looms as the ultimate pivot State.”
Germany’s return to realpolitik: On July 1, Germany took charge of the presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU). In September it articulated its strategy on the region through a document titled “Policy guidelines for the Indo-Pacific region.” In his statement, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas declared: “We are sending a clear message today, the Indo-Pacific region is a priority of German foreign policy…We want to help shape that order, so that it is based on rules and international cooperation, not on the law of the strong. That is why we have intensified cooperation with those countries that share our democratic and liberal values.” In fact, this is indicative of Germany’s return to a realpolitik approach towards its foreign and security policies from its so-called “moral politics” and “political escapism.”
This augurs well for India, as both nations believe in a multi-lateralist approach to foreign policy and international politics. Just like Germany, multi-lateralism is key to transforming India into a global power. Their beliefs in democratic and liberal values make them natural allies and together they can play a vital role in ensuring peace and security in the Indo-Pacific region.
(The writer is a policy commentator)