The long-drawn bitterness in New Delhi-Ottawa bilateral ties is beginning to show signs of a rapprochement with PM Narendra Modi expected to meet his new Canadian counterpart Mark Carney on the margins of the upcoming G-7 Summit in picturesque Kananaskis in the Canadian province of Alberta from June 15 to 17.
Both sides will need to ensure that a major irritant in the bilateral relationship — Khalistani extremism in Canada — is not allowed to derail efforts to normalise ties.
That India’s perennial bugbear Justin Trudeau is no longer the Canadian PM has contributed in no small measure to the initiation of efforts to end the chill in bilateral relations.
Modi swiftly accepted an invite from Carney to participate in the gathering of the world’s advanced economies — US, Canada, UK, France, Italy, Germany and Japan — even though it came just a few days ahead of the meet. As “vibrant democracies”, the two countries will “work together with renewed vigour guided by mutual respect and shared interests”, Modi affirmed.
It was Trudeau’s policy of appeasement of the Khalistani elements based on Canadian soil that saw bilateral relations nose-dive since he became PM in 2015.
The ties deteriorated even further in 2023-24 after the Trudeau Government’s accusations that the Indian Government was behind the killing of Khalistani separatist Kuldeep Singh Nijjar in Canada in June 2023.
Both sides are hoping to turn a new chapter under the new Canadian PM. It’s perhaps the reason why Carney invited Modi even though he’s facing domestic criticism, including within his party, in the backdrop of charges by Canadian security that Indian agents were behind Nijjar’s killing.
Carney, on his part, said India is the world’s most populous nation and with the fifth largest economy, besides being “central” to several supply chains.
For the economist turned politician who never held any political office till he became the PM, the outreach to India is driven by pragmatism and realpolitik.
Having succeeded Trudeau as the Liberal Party leader and PM, Carney not only has to deal with the challenges of a world in geopolitical and economic flux but also the harsh reality of his country no longer being treated as a valuable ally by its all-powerful neighbour, the US.
Instead, Donald Trump in his second term as US President has unleashed a trade war on Canada. Furthermore, in what is even more galling for Ottawa, Trump has questioned Canada’s sovereignty by threatening to annex it.
As Carney negotiates a new path and shapes an economy wherein the US is no longer its largest trading partner, it has become imperative for his Government to look for new trading partners.
It’s in this backdrop that Carney is seeking to bury the hatchet with the two Asian giants, India and China — countries with whom Ottawa’s ties have been extremely fraught in recent years.
Carney has also reached out to Beijing with a recent phone call to Chinese premier Li Qiang, where they agreed to “reset” ties. Beijing, of course, has been engaged in its trade war with Washington, though the two sides have reached a delicate truce for now.
India, facing its share of troubles with Trump’s trade war, too is looking to closer economic ties with other partners. The normalisation of ties with Canada could, therefore, see the two sides revive discussions for a trade pact, talks on which were halted by Canada in September 2023 as tensions mounted after the Najjar killing.
It’s noteworthy that trade ties have remained quite stable despite the turbulence in bilateral relations. In 2023, bilateral trade in goods between the two countries was 12.65 billion Canadian dollars, while in services it was 13.49 billion Canadian dollars.
Canada also sees India as a key partner in its efforts to enhance economic links with the Indo-Pacific in its strategy for the region.
The two also have shared interests in cooperating on security matters in the Indo-Pacific amid China’s expansionist muscle-flexing. Security will be one of the important items on the G-7’s agenda as well as energy. For India, Canada can be an important ally in its campaign against Pakistan on the issue of cross-border terrorism.
However, as India and Canada prepare to bury the hatchet, it will require some deft diplomatic manoeuvring from both to ensure the Najjar killing as well as the broader issue of activities by Khalistan separatist elements is not allowed to bedevil ties.
Ottawa would do well to remember that it was these secessionist elements who were behind the deadly bombing of AI-182 ‘Kanishka’ in 1982 that exploded over the Atlantic Ocean, killing 329 passengers. As former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton once warned Pakistan — you cannot keep snakes in your backyard and expect them only to bite your neighbours.
(The writer is a senior journalist. Views expressed are personal)